Crusaders 5/8 Dan Carter on the attack in Canterbury’s big win over the Bulls |
We’re looking for an emphatic statement from the Waratahs against the Chiefs in Hamilton this afternoon. The Crusaders served up some serious Super 14 notice in Pretoria overnight, putting their recent mystifying slump behind them to smash the Bulls 35-17.
Any overseas rugby victory is a real victory; the more so if it is a victory in South Africa; and the victory will be all the more impressive still if you can do it while resting the great Richie McCaw from your team.
The Bulls are the only outfit to have got over the Tahs this year, apart from the Crusaders themselves, and all New South Welshpersons would have felt a serious confidence leakage at the news of this result.
As I say, there’s only one way now for the Tahs to respond, and that is to put the Chiefs to the sword, brutally. Go, you good things!
Update: Tahrible, just tahrible. When we needed to respond to the Crusaders call, we dropped our bundle (33-37). In what was easily the Tahs worst game this year, the team couldn’t kick, couldn’t pass, couldn’t tackle … oh, woe … the impregnable Tahs couldn’t even tackle. Encapsulating the depths to which we sank, the line-out failed, Hewat lost his goal-kicking aim (two bounced off the posts), and Sailor, dear ol’ damned ‘del, managed to use his own arm to prevent his own try from being scored. Amid the wreckage, we salvaged two bonus points, which means the bases are fully loaded for the last round next week. In footie, there’s always an adage to clutch, and this week we have to tell ourselves that we’re glad that the boys got their bad game out of the way. This was the wake-up call, ensuring we’ll be fully focused next week. I think I’ll sulk ’til then.
On the bright side, the ‘canes confirmed that they won’t be derailing any of the other three finalists!
You might all have to rethink, the Chiefs can pull things out of the bag when least expected. Lets face it, they’re only seventh on the table and you can’t say that there is much between anyone less than five above on that list. Counting chickens – that may come home to roost?
Damn! Was I right?
Hmm, is it those old familiar Waratah Wobbles arriving as usual at the wrong end of the season? Or just a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses and Hewat having an equally uncharacteristically bad night with the boot? I don’t know, I don’t have Foxtel, but I’ll await Chris’s evaluation (and Patrick et al) with great interest. Anyway, I suppose next week against the Hurricanes will tell us whether they’re genuine contenders or just pretenders.
Have updated the post.
Another upsetting image from the game was the sight of Mat Rogers, hobbling from the field. Rogers showed tonight, quite vividly for mine, that he is a wonderful and gutsy runner with the ball, but less than masterful at any other facet of the game. Lote is the only completely successful League recruit from the big three.
I also wonder, as always, about the automatic replacement rules. Shehan is a very promising half-back, but surely it is silly to pull your captain from such a game. There was one foolish choice over a penalty shot. More generally, replacement robs players of opportunities to atone.
Plus, the Brumbies got pipped by the Highlanders 28-26 here in Canberra. Why do these NZ teams finally get their act together when they’ve no chance of making the finals? Some Kiwis would claim the Super 14 is a tune up for the much more important NPC. Australia’s hopes for this round now rest with the Western Force, currently behind 11-9 vs the Cheetahs.
Hey, the only difference between the teams was that Hewat apparently can’t kick under pressure! You guys would have beaten both this mob and the Crusaders if Hewat had just kicked straight.
On the bright side, that means that you are an excellent chance to win if he does kick straight (or if you find someone else who can, quickly!).
On the down side, I can’t see Mr Connolly figuring ‘P Hewat’ in his first 22 now, not with so much other talent available.
Any kicker can have an off day. There was no more pressure for most of this game than any other; and, indeed, his aim became better as the pressure mounted. Otherwise, he had a quiet but not a poor game. He looked exposed in defence on one occasion, yet he may have been wrong-footed, expecting Rocky to make his tackle. In sum: the case against P Hewat is found unproven, and is hereby dismissed.
But you must be kidding – frankly, I think he does deserve a shot on the wing before the World Cup to prove himself, and I am a big fan of his ability to break the line, but:
a) he stands out partly because he plays for NSW who have great play and set up a lot of opportunities for good, quick-footed players to break the line, but NSW don’t actually have many of these players! (eg, Turinui is great at setting people up, less great at beating his man).
b) In two of NSW’s three biggest games thus far, he has missed more points than the margin of loss. That is really damning from a test selector’s perspective, frankly. I doubt he will ever kick for Australia, frankly.
c) Tune, Ioane, Gerrard, Mitchell and Tuquiri are all creative and useful wingers, and at least Mitchell can play fullback, not to mention Cameron Shepherd who has certainly had practise this year. There is a lot of competition for the 11, 14, and 22 guernseys, and Hewat has done himself a great disservice by his kicking in those two crunch games.
Now, he has (hopefully) three very tough games before him, and a good performance in these will do much to erase the negatives, and he does deserve a shot anyway. I have nothing against him, but I think that it is clear enough that what I have said here is true.
Finally, have you noticed that the top four teams play each other in the last round? That will be some great football!!
My goodness, but in relation to my last point, what a tangled web these games make!
In particular, there is a very high chance of the Waratah’s facing the Brumbies at home, which from my (desirous of an all-Aussie final) perspective is terrible. But that is what happens unless the ‘tahs lose, or the ‘tahs win by more than seven and the Brumbies take 5 points against the, er, Crusaders at, er, Jade Park. As good as to say that the odds are good on Waratahs v Brumbies in a fortnight.
The perverse upshot of it all is that from the neutral perspective, one has to balance which would be better: ‘tahs lose, and we have a chance of two Aussie teams in the final but no home semis, or ‘tah’s win and we have an all-Aussie semi?
Obviously the best best case is ‘tahs win by more than seven (very likely actually) and Brumbies win with four tries, in which case we have two aussie semis! But unless Larkham and Giteau both make it back that seems hideously unlikely and even with them it would be against the odds.
Then again, the Crusaders have to fly about 7000kms and have just finished three tough matches (but have rested their best players in at least one of each) and the Brumbies should rebound….clearly I want that result beyond all reason!
Yep, Patrick, the bases sure are fully loaded for the run home, and anything is possible. It’s very hard for me to imagine the Tahs now dropping their bundle entirely after making so much effort to have such a splendid tournament, but … they are the Tahs …
I still don’t agree with your asessment of Hewat. I’ve seen just about every home game over the past two years (make that three, but Hewat only came last year), and I would bet the stats show that he has won far more with his boot than he has lost, and he is in any event the best goal-kicker out of Giteau, Morts and Rogers – obviously in terms of his range, but also his recod. Last year he broke all Matt Burke’s records for the Tahs. I thus just don’t think this criticism is credible. Over the past two years, I’ve never seen him have a real bad game, and against the junior All-Blacks in particular he was far superior to Drew Mitchell (the latter being selected on the basis of that game, despite the fact that Hewat was given the man of the match, a rare honour for a player on the losing side).
I don’t know much about the Force guy, but I can tell you that with Shepherd it really is a question of which player turns up on the day – he has put in some real shockers for the Tahs (in a way that Hewat hasn’t), and we were not sorry to see him go. Ben Tune was of course a great winger, but it is generally conceded that he has now lost his pace (which is why he is playing at centre). Tuqiri is a cert by all accounts, leaving one wing spot and fullback. I would never pick Latham over Hewat, but politics will play a role here.
My picks would be Tuqiri, and either Gerrard or Rathbone (probably both, with one on the bench), Rogers at fullback to start (assuming Larkham is fit to play), with Hewat to come off the bench for 30 mins in the second half (most Waratah fans, incidentally, would think Hewat is the superior fullback to Rogers – but we can’t just drop the guy cold).
No-one else would pick either Rogers or Hewat ahead of Latham, and not just on politics! I used not to be impressed by him at all, when he replaced Burke he was not up to standard at all – that was back in the days, hopefully now behind us, when players were allowed to ‘develop’ in the gold guernsey. Hopefully now the S14 competition does a better job of that.
You need, when picking, to accomodate both international and provincial form – so Gregan, Larkham, Tuquiri, Turunui/Giteau, Mortlock, … and Latham almost pick themselves, with no 12 to depend a lot on the next three weeks. Then you have indeed probably Gerrard and Rathbone, but also Mitchell, competing for 14. If you want to pick Hewat, that is probably at the expense of Mitchell because even though he has more chance on the wing, if Connolly doesn’t back him as a reserve fullback then he just won’t pick him, and if he does then Mitchell’s biggest advantage is negated.
Rogers gets a hard run to selection if Giteau is fit because Giteau reserves for 10 and 12, and then if you pick Tune or Staniforth you have a 13/back three reserve.
Giteau even offers you cover for 9, although I doubt they will take him for that.
Which leaves you with Gregan, Larkham, Tuquiri, Turinui, Mortlock, Gerrard, Latham, Henjak (that is just a guess!) Giteau, Staniforth/Tune and four forwards, or Mitchell instead of Henjak.
Alternatively, for the midweek games, Henjak, Barnes, Ioane, Giteau, Tune, Rathbone, Hewat, Cordingley, Rogers, Mitchell, with all a chance to play themselves into the first 22.
But I admit that a lot, especially in 12 and 14, depends on the next few weeks, and that Hewat will be a certain starter in the midweek games, and from there will force his way onto the bench, if he plays strongly. I like Rogers, a lot, but unless he brings the house (and Crusaders) down over the next few weeks and forces his way into inside centre, it is hard to see where he fits in with a fit Larkham. By all accounts Turinui is certain, and do you prefer Rogers as a reserve over Giteau?
Patrick I think the final round scenario is different from the one you set out. Red hot favourite is for the semis to be same teams, same venues as this weekend. The only way the Brumbies can be third is if they win with a bonus point and the canes lose, But if that happens the tahs will have won and gone top, so the aussies can’t be second and third. The only way the aussies can meet in the semis is if the tahs go top by winning and the brumbies beat the crusaders but don’t score four tries.
Crusaders are top and will stay there if they win. Brumbies are fourth and will stay there if they lose
do you prefer Rogers as a reserve over Giteau?
I’d take both, using Giteau to also cover half. But they won’t do that, so I would have to go for Gits over Rogers on form. It will be interesting to see if Rogers can answer the challenge of the enormous volume of criticism that has been directed at him since last Friday. This is probably the first round of heavy stick the guy has copped since he transferred. Perhaps he’s reaching the end of his run; or maybe, just maybe, he will pick himself up.
Personally, I would do the same, cs! But given that I’m not picking, I think you are right about form, and also the age factor matters.
Go Brumbies – I think you are right, not sure where I went wrong! Of course I’m still hoping that the Brumbies win with more than four tries and the ‘Tahs the same with no bonus points for the ‘Canes!
Big blow for the Brumbies. Make it much harder to win, given the form he’s in.
OTOH, chance for Phibbs to shoot into the big-time in a big way, given that neither Henjak has hardly had the chance to shine this year!
After taking into account the exemplary and unblemished disciplinary record of Gregan, the Judicial Committee determined that a suspension of one week was an appropriate penalty.
Gees, how about being let off with a warning? Bastards.
I do not know about Gregan or the yawnion judiciary setup but I saw that tackle on telly this morning and have not stopped flinching.
Wee George doesn’t know his own strength. The Captain’s having a great season. Go you good thing. Bury the bastards.
McKenzie is right to be miffed re Gregan’s suspension. Even with a good record one week is poor given the danger of such a tackle.
The Buffet Browser is not upset over Gregan’s result; he’s just still deeply miffed over Rocky’s four weeks early in the season, and quite right too.
Well…he’s still miffed then.