Comments on: The power of statistics http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/ Sun, 12 Feb 2012 03:01:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Chris Lloyd http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41609 Chris Lloyd Tue, 15 Aug 2006 09:14:55 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41609 A few years ago I had a great idea (I get one every few years). Bradman's batting average is 99.94. Now think about how a batting average is calculated. If you are not out, then your score is added to the numerator but nothing is added to the denominator. This is equivalent to assuming you would go on to make your average score additional to your not out score. For example, if you add 99.94 to all of Bradman's not out scores and assume he got out at that score then you get the same average of 99.94. This assumption has to be wrong! My great idea was that if I can calculate Bradman's average under a "better" A few years ago I had a great idea (I get one every few years). Bradman’s batting average is 99.94. Now think about how a batting average is calculated. If you are not out, then your score is added to the numerator but nothing is added to the denominator. This is equivalent to assuming you would go on to make your average score additional to your not out score. For example, if you add 99.94 to all of Bradman’s not out scores and assume he got out at that score then you get the same average of 99.94.

This assumption has to be wrong! My great idea was that if I can calculate Bradman’s average under a “better”

]]> By: Gaby http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41605 Gaby Tue, 15 Aug 2006 06:20:18 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41605 Steve, I think it depends on the context and purpose. Stats are necessarily ex post. So perhaps useful as a rough guide to the worth of a career. And probably better indicators of performance in baseball, cricket, as you suggest, but not necessarily ability. But as a means of spotting raw talent, nearly worthless I'd hazard. The good coach is able to spot talent, perhaps in the midst of woeful performance, and then nurture and develop it as well as melding it with other players into a team. The "stats" will then surely follow. Increasingly in soccer and AFL coaches, journalists and analysts want to break the game down into stats. For me, this is just pseudo-science. It focusses on effects rather than causes of the play in a game. In my opinion, American "sports" commentators are the worst abusers of stats. And the utter crap talked by their golf commentators is stupefying. Steve, I think it depends on the context and purpose. Stats are necessarily ex post. So perhaps useful as a rough guide to the worth of a career. And probably better indicators of performance in baseball, cricket, as you suggest, but not necessarily ability.

But as a means of spotting raw talent, nearly worthless I’d hazard. The good coach is able to spot talent, perhaps in the midst of woeful performance, and then nurture and develop it as well as melding it with other players into a team. The “stats” will then surely follow.

Increasingly in soccer and AFL coaches, journalists and analysts want to break the game down into stats. For me, this is just pseudo-science. It focusses on effects rather than causes of the play in a game.

In my opinion, American “sports” commentators are the worst abusers of stats. And the utter crap talked by their golf commentators is stupefying.

]]> By: Steve Edney http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41598 Steve Edney Tue, 15 Aug 2006 04:01:24 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41598 Stats work much better as an analysis tool when you have situations of clear individual contests, which are rare in many team balls sports. Batting and pitching in baseball I generate statistics with good relevance to the players abilities, in the same way that batting and bowling averages are useful measures in cricket. You have (mostly) a fairly clear individual contest, and the relative ineptitude or brilliance of your team matters little. In contrast stats on goals or trys scored and such depends very much on the team despite the individual's brilliance. Stats work much better as an analysis tool when you have situations of clear individual contests, which are rare in many team balls sports. Batting and pitching in baseball I generate statistics with good relevance to the players abilities, in the same way that batting and bowling averages are useful measures in cricket. You have (mostly) a fairly clear individual contest, and the relative ineptitude or brilliance of your team matters little.

In contrast stats on goals or trys scored and such depends very much on the team despite the individual’s brilliance.

]]> By: Gaby http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41596 Gaby Tue, 15 Aug 2006 03:36:39 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41596 Generally, sport stats are an irrelevance to measuring the quality of performance in team ball sports. A coach who relies on them doesn't understand and appreciate the game or its nuances. This definitely applies to soccer and I would expect to rugby and AFL. Baseball may, however, be an exception that proves the rule. Generally, sport stats are an irrelevance to measuring the quality of performance in team ball sports. A coach who relies on them doesn’t understand and appreciate the game or its nuances. This definitely applies to soccer and I would expect to rugby and AFL. Baseball may, however, be an exception that proves the rule.

]]> By: Chris Lloyd http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41593 Chris Lloyd Tue, 15 Aug 2006 02:13:27 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41593 Sports and gambling are a great vehicles for introducing statistics to undergrads, see for instance <a href="http://www.apapdc.edu.au/archive/ASPA/conference2000/papers/art_3_17.htm" rel="nofollow"> here </a>. There is even an academic centre <a href="http://www.swin.edu.au/sport/" rel="nofollow"> academic centre </a> devoted to sports statistics research. One of the reasons the statistics of sporting performance is interesting is that it is often very tough to predict. This doesn't stop people trying hard to "explain" Sports and gambling are a great vehicles for introducing statistics to undergrads, see for instance here . There is even an academic centre academic centre devoted to sports statistics research.

One of the reasons the statistics of sporting performance is interesting is that it is often very tough to predict. This doesn’t stop people trying hard to “explain”

]]> By: Tony.T http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41546 Tony.T Mon, 14 Aug 2006 13:01:34 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/08/14/the-power-of-statistics/#comment-41546 It's a good book alright, if a little overpraised. My <a href="http://aftergrogblog.blogs.com/agb/2005/07/ace_on_base.html" rel="nofollow">review</a>. It’s a good book alright, if a little overpraised. My review.

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