Comments on: Don’t worry, be happy: another mid year report http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/12/20/dont-worry-be-happy-another-mid-year-report/ Sun, 12 Feb 2012 08:04:39 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Chris Lloyd http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/12/20/dont-worry-be-happy-another-mid-year-report/#comment-72975 Chris Lloyd Sat, 23 Dec 2006 03:35:35 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/12/20/dont-worry-be-happy-another-mid-year-report/#comment-72975 But if the error is consistently in the same direction then it is rectifiable. We rely on government departments to provide the best private and public analysis possible. It seems they are not doing it. As for the $15b surplus, the government philosophy is to run a balanced budget over the business cycle. With the accumulated surpluses, yhey must be expecting a hell of a recession... But if the error is consistently in the same direction then it is rectifiable. We rely on government departments to provide the best private and public analysis possible. It seems they are not doing it.

As for the $15b surplus, the government philosophy is to run a balanced budget over the business cycle. With the accumulated surpluses, yhey must be expecting a hell of a recession…

]]> By: JC http://clubtroppo.com.au/2006/12/20/dont-worry-be-happy-another-mid-year-report/#comment-72193 JC Wed, 20 Dec 2006 10:38:16 +0000 http://www.clubtroppo.com.au/2006/12/20/dont-worry-be-happy-another-mid-year-report/#comment-72193 Tony What have they actually done to change the forecasting system used by previous administrations. Until we know that we can't pass judgement. Maybe the economy has changed so much the old system isn't keeping up with it. Who knows? Maybe they have made changes that still don't get them much closer. To be perfectly honest being up or down 3.5% in an enterprise that takes 30 odd % of the economy sounds pretty good to me. Without knowing this, my bet is that the economy has got so much bigger than previous that they are very much likely to have bigger rates of error. China growing at 15% per year and India doing almost as well could very well change a good part of the economic pattern here. The real question we ought to be asking is what the hell are these guys doing running annual surpluses of $15 bill. This is grotesque. The old Hawke, promise seems pretty good to me. Tony

What have they actually done to change the forecasting system used by previous administrations. Until we know that we can’t pass judgement. Maybe the economy has changed so much the old system isn’t keeping up with it. Who knows? Maybe they have made changes that still don’t get them much closer.

To be perfectly honest being up or down 3.5% in an enterprise that takes 30 odd % of the economy sounds pretty good to me.

Without knowing this, my bet is that the economy has got so much bigger than previous that they are very much likely to have bigger rates of error.

China growing at 15% per year and India doing almost as well could very well change a good part of the economic pattern here.

The real question we ought to be asking is what the hell are these guys doing running annual surpluses of $15 bill. This is grotesque.

The old Hawke, promise seems pretty good to me.

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