I have been very impressed with her thus far.

Homer, I take it you’re referring to the earlier chapter of her Labor career – when she was working as a “journalist” for “our” ABC?

Howard on the other hand looks quite old

He is old. But then again, he was born old.

You remember it. Howard got the lowest EVER vote for a Government and the lowest vote in the Senate since Trumper was playing.

That charge was a real winner.

I will tell you one thing both parties polling have people tuning out when Howard talks about Iraq

Back on topic, I have noticed a good deal of enthusiasm mixed with much foreboding and hesitation about Max’s announcement, a tone also somewhat reflected in Robert’s comments. This is very understandable, of course, as it reflects how badly beaten the ALP’s supporters have been over recent years. In keeping with the general thread of this post, however, I think that it is a very good political thing for the ALP to be able to recruit a top-notch candidate like Max against the PM and for everyone to continue to firmly believe that Howard is unquestionably the front-runner and she has little chance. Max and the ALP have thus pulled today’s political jackpot, becoming the talk of the town with her announcement, and yet she now goes into her campaign clearly branded as the underdog. It couldn’t be better. Long may the aura of Howard invincibility last, hopefully all the way to election day. If the ALP is not allowed to get up in the political commentary, it will not be able to be pulled down. You couldn’t ask for better political cover. Max can enjoy a mini political bliss point.

Don’t know if it’s too early to trust this feeling one way or another where a doubt is arising that this sort of attack is working. I’m wondering if in fact the voters accept that sort of personal rather vindictive style when a government is achieving gang busters – almost as bragging rights fairly assigned and allowed them by voters.

But when a government is in the shit, that sort of approach doesn’t at all seem to have the same effect – it appears as arrogant and plainly rude.

Again, too early to tell if this line against Rudd is working for Howard, but there arises the point that it may backfire, unless Howard and other attack doggerels are visibly seen to be achieving in the national interest.

McKew and Rudd, being the prissy shiny poncerellos or some such as occasionally accused now may end up being received pleasantly for being, contrastingly, non-simplistic, non mono-headed and non mono-lingual, ie, credibly intelligent people to run the country.

What a lovely day it is.

in 2004 Howard came to Eastwood shopping centre three times. IT is his ‘lucky’ talisman. Each time he was loudly booed. That is unheard of here.

My guess Max will capture the wendell factor and she has gained some ALP booths from Parramatta.

This will be a lot closer than people think

Howard has not lived in the electorate since the days of Ted Mack when he was asked by the Liberal party to compete against Ted. He didn’t as his ticker wasn’t up to a contest.

Nicole had a swing against her last time where Wendell ran a brilliant campaign.

McKew is used to framing her speech for television: a major plus for a “star recruit”, and one where many fail – Garrett and Turnbull are examples here of current “stars”, in different ways, of that failing. Others have failed more spectacularly of course but success – even enjoyment – of under-television pressure is absolutely necessary in these particular circumstances, which McKew has.

McKew is a woman – which carries with it an inherent saleable perception that she is sensitive to her electorate’s needs. Downside is she’s not of the electorate. Which will win out?

Conversely, Wilkie came across, while committed, as intense, and did not give the impression he was sensitive to the electorate of Bennelong, rather that he was anti-Howard. That he did so well indicates the moodshift in the seat.

Bennelong is a very “multicultural” seat, which doesn’t suit Howard on paper. This raises issues in the above couple of points.

McKew is sharp, strong and probably will be persuasive. She’ll certainly be a good candidate. On the downside, she does come across as holding a bit of smarminess, or intellectual superiority, which reflects badly with Rudd. This may change as she speaks local issues, passionately – a prerequisite. There’s something about her, too, which doesn’t give immediately to trusting her: again, an aspect of that sharpness. A tough thing to say, agreed, but after the thrill of a battle laid out, she will have to work hard to prove herself to that electorate.

As background, the current ALP candidate, Nicole Campbell, from all appearances is a remarkable person. She has been very dedicated to one thing: the needs of that electorate. She doorknocks come rain hail or shine and is right across the issues there. The AlP, from her accounts, at campaign headquarters level, have previously written the seat off and not assisted her – that the seat is now marginal is overwhelmingly I’d say due to Nicole providing a real alternative through her own incredible efforts. (Along with a general change within the place).

What this does do is place inordinate pressure on Howard – that’s priceless given the current circumstances, where a ruthless PM will do anything to remain in power. Such pressure can only do good for the seat, the election, and the country. With this comes the altered media conversation, where the focus is on Howard’s vulnerability and whether he is entitled to remain a representative of the people. What changes will he make, locally? Bowling Club photo ops and porkie chops are not enough. These things will take on national coverage as things move on, which serves to bring a very different light at times to the election. Hence, we have highlighted Howard’s entitlement to remain representative at an international, national and local level. It’s that media conversation which is so damaging.

It is a sharp move against Howard, but by no means a given that she’ll prosper there, until she gets across local issues and speaks them with integrity. There would still, I believe, be a residual concern for Nicole and McKew would have to overcome that. Nicole may spit the dummy, but my shot would be she, while maybe fighting for the seat, would also concede ultimately in favour of local needs. She must surely feel unfairly done by, and again I could be wrong, but I don’t believe it will be an overly messy preselection. That attendant media scrabble serves also to reflect on Howard’s threat.

While exciting to those who wish Howard out, there are local issues to come out, and it’s by no means a given McKew will ride through with the same public regard she now has.

People have wanted a change for some time. Just like 1996 Rudd is saying little will change if he wins whilst saying perhaps some significant change at the margins.

Foreign policy is between Iraq and a hard place for Howard ( bahaha)
Climate change makes him look old and out of touch and if Baptist in the RBA puts rates up again…..

So, perhaps Howard might be advised to say that he now does sense