Two decades of NSW Labor
Posted by Christopher Sheil on Saturday, March 24, 2007
The NSW Labor government has been comfortably returned under the leadership of Morris Iemma. The result extends the dominance of Labor at the state level, a process that commenced on 4 April 1995 when Bob Carr led the NSW ALP back to office with a one-seat majority – at the time, making the Waratah state the only non-conservative sub-national jurisdiction. All the other states and the territories followed the NSW political lead and none of their ALP governments has yet been defeated. This victory means that the present NSW Labor era will extend to 16 years minimum, and probably at least two decades.
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The final details are unclear. Going on ABC-TV, it looks like the ALP may have only lost one seat (Tweed – to the Nationals, where the candidate did a good impersonation of a Labor member by campaigning for the restoration of the local train). The swing against the government was limited to about 3 per cent. Star Liberal candidate, Pru Goward, will depend on preferences to get across the line.
The result is remarkable. The ALP was expected to be vulnerable after 12 years in power, and Carr’s retirement in favour of the lacklustre Iemma. The government had also accumulated a reputation for being injury prone (especially on transport), the NSW economy was often said to be below par, and the Fairfax press ran a very strong anti-Labor campaign.
How did the ALP do it? The result will reinforce the (somewhat tautological) idea that incumbency has become a bigger political advantage over recent years than in the more remote past. Labor also ran a typically tough professional campaign, against a conservative effort led by a Tory cut-out from central casting that rarely rose above shambolic comedy. One also suspects that Kevin Rudd refreshed the ALP’s name generally at just the right time for the NSW government.
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The $64 million question is the anti-WorkChoices vote. This was the most heavily promoted campaign issue (with the possible exception of anti-Joe Tripodi). Careful analysis will be needed to isolate and measure the impact. At a glance, the swing was far from uniform, with the LNP increasing its vote by over 3 per cent in its heartlands, but being limited by lesser swings and some swings to the ALP in its own seats. On the surface, this suggests that WorkChoices did tend to polarise the vote along class lines in favour of Labor (and ALP-friendly independents in the Newcastle area). What of the federal marginals? Penrith was among the seats that swung to the ALP (hellooo Jackie!). The clearer conclusion is that no Australian politician will ever again campaign in speedos.
Update: The political implications of election results present interesting challenges for the parties. Several Howard ministers have made a determined pitch to the effect that WorkChoices was not only a non-issue, but, to the extent that it was an issue, it positively drove voters to the LNP. Brendan Nelson, for example, told the Nine Network: “”It was only in the last week of the campaign that the Labor Party focused on Work Choices and it was in the last week of the campaign that the support came back to us.” All very convenient, but completely false. As faithful Troppo readers will know, I blogged on the WorkChoices saturation over a week ago, 10 days ago to be precise, noting that:
Some weeks ago I noticed the nursesâ union running advertisements against WorkChoices, and this theme now occupies the foreground in the governmentâs own adverts, to the point where Debnam is being pummeled 24/7 for being associated with Howard and his crackdown on workersâ rights. Interstate readers may be interested to know that the latest Labor adverts even open with a picture of the prime minister. Indeed, it is hardly an exaggeration to suggest that the ALPâs entire election campaign has become a (truly) massive extension of the ACTUâs long running âYour Rights at Workâ campaign.
There is a phlegmatism to the ALP’s response to the LNP’s WorkChoices denialism. The Labor people have been basically saying “believe it or not; that’s your choice; but it’s real, we know that, and we couldn’t be bothered arguing about it – all strength to your delusionalism”. Meanwhile, there was some canvassing of Howard’s options for softening WorkChoices on the Insiders, as Brian Toohey predicted that the pm might leave politics mid-year, subject to the polls. There are also rumours that Greg Combet may stand in the NSW coalfields.
This entry was posted on Saturday, March 24th, 2007 at 11:00 PM and filed under Politics - national.
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I’m glad we won’t have to see Cossie in his cossie then!
Agree about the Work Choices effect – certainly both the prominence of the advertising and the distribution of swings would suggest it may well have been there.
There was also the contrast of Rudd lending support to Iemma’s campaign and Howard being used to increase Debnam’s negatives.
On the incumbency issue:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/03/22/incumbency-rules/
Posted on 24-Mar-07 at 11:33 pm | PermalinkWithout a doubt refreshing the leadership beforehand got Labor home. Bob Carr would have been snotted. And listening to Stephen Loosely was it?, explaining Iemma had said sorry to the electorate and sought a chance as refreshed leader helped me understand the power of contrition as posed by cs previously. The electorate responded in kind, thankful they felt they’d been heard, and all the more for its rarity.
Debnam ran the campaign in his head, disconnected. “I’m fit and trim, a clear point of difference, I’ll show that off. That’s what this state needs, action man.” Why didn’t someone tell him? It’s all very loopy in the NSW Liberals. Is that the born-to-rule headspace gone juvenile?
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 12:17 am | PermalinkStuff like not having a transport policy until he made one up last week out of whole cloth, and not turning up to his own costings thing (after refusing Treasury costings) – presumably out of embarrassment that no one could reconcile almost 10 billion dollars worth of promises with any possible funding mechanism wouldn’t have helped Debnam either!
Scarily similar to the Queensland campaign where incredibly the new Liberal leader, Bruce Flegg, having been Health shadow since the last election had no health policy and invented one on the second day of the campaign in concert with Nats MP Rob Messenger who’d just achieved the unbelievable trick of carrying on like such a pork chop that the Patel Victims Support Group actually endorsed Labor…
If Howard loses, this Liberal mob are going to be in very deep trouble. Reportedly after the Debus/Heffernan/discredited allegations made by jailed pedophile own goal, Debnam had one of Howard’s staffers imposed on him. Whatever did this operative do?
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 12:27 am | PermalinkThe ALP have also at least “lost” Murray Darling which used to be Broken Hill but was redistributed away from Peter Black and my old home town of Lake Macquarie.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 12:46 am | PermalinkThere isn’t any doubt that WorkChoices swung the election as it did in Queensland. The flow on effects of AWAs have now hit us here in the Far North with a sharp drop in the domestic tourist market. Put simply, people won’t squander their money on holidays if they have no security of employment.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 3:48 am | PermalinkOne wonders what the Taliban crazies that control the NSW liberals will do now–book Karl Rove to be part of their campaigning tory rat-pack in 2011?
The TV clip from Labor’s ad of Debnam saying how he’d hand IR to Canberra was telling IMHO. The Ruddster must be chuffed this morning–(some more tear gas for a cornered Rat.)
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 8:14 am | PermalinkTo correct myself, LM is officially unresolved. But anyway even if Piper gets up there it doesn’t change the above analysis (he’s unlikely to vote with the Oppn on most things).
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 8:46 am | PermalinkThe state of the Liberal Party may be gleaned from the people who come out to do the work at election time. In one seat in south western Sydney, a bunch of ANU Liberal Club students arrived to help their man, and in the process decided that racially sledging the young ALP people who were working on that campaign, was a smart thing to do. It is an interesting question just how much the campaign to smash public civility on matters of race which has been such a hallmark of conservative mobilisation across the world, actually contributed to a bunch of yahoos thinking that racial taunts and slurs are smart politics.
In any event, it is clear that this kind of politics, if it continues, will contribute to the political annihilation of the coalition as it goes on to lose the federal election later this year.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 10:32 am | Permalinkamused said:
Nice to know things haven’t changed in the ANU Liberal club in twenty years – they were like that while I was doing my degree.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 1:41 pm | Permalink