Greg Combet to stand?
Posted by Christopher Sheil on Sunday, March 25, 2007
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The rumours have been around for months, but have now returned, stronger than ever. Clearly, there are strong interests behind the push to get Greg Combet to run in the 2007 election. I’ve always dismissed this as a silly idea, given the job Combet has with the anti-WorkChoices campaign for the ACTU, not to mention his general value to the trade union movement. Notionally, he is also a first class leader in reserve, so to speak, if things all end up pear-shaped. On the other hand, if his standing will enhance the chances of an ALP victory, he virtually has a duty to do so, provided he does not reduce the effectiveness of the ACTU by the same degree. Presumably, if he has a safe seat, he can remain ACTU leader for some months yet, doubling his hats and bringing him more directly into the election campaign. A curiosity is that today’s story says that a deal has been sown up for the Labor held seat of Charlton in NSW’s Hunter Valley, which is said to only have a 1.5 per cent margin. The Mackerras Pendulum gives the seat an 8.4 per cent margin. Has there been a redistribution, post-Malcolm?
Update: If it’s happening, let this be the ugliest story to come out of Charlton. C’mon team, or should I say unholy alliance, where is your bedside manner?
Update: As you were. “An angry Mr Combet told The Age at Melbourne Airport last night: ‘I’m not going in.’”
Gratuitous Update: From Matt Price: Rudd rejected the PM’s notion that the phalanx of ex-union officials in caucus, with or without Greg Combet, meant he’d be slave to the comrades. “I mean, we’ve got Peter Garrett in there who’s a former rock star,” he said. “Does that mean I’m supposed to turn around and wear leathers and start playing bass guitar?” Can’t imagine the Ruddster on bass. Lead maybe; but more a keyboards type, I reckon.
This entry was posted on Sunday, March 25th, 2007 at 3:22 PM and filed under Politics - national.
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As someone who until very recently lived in Charlton, i’ve only know it as a safe labour seat. There is never any advertising and you would be hard pressed to find many people who could name our current mp, Kelly Hoare. Its as safe a labour seat as they come and has never had a competitive election, except of course for labour preselection. I also found it curious that the newspaper article said it was a marginal seat. There may have been a redistribution but it would have to be very large to make it competitive.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 3:48 pm | PermalinkLabour has done a good job of recruiting high profile, respected candidates for the next election. One would think that Greg Combet would still be a very loud voice on industrial relations issues for the election even not as ACTU President. He would probably be fast tracked into the ministry with responsibilities on industrial relations, given that it seems to me that he is widely regarded as a very effective advocate in the community.
Yes, all NSW and Qld seats were redistributed last year, because Qld gained a seat, and NSW lost one.
However, the story in the papers is still wildly inaccurate.
The margin for Charlton has been calculated to have dropped from 8.4% to 8.0%.
http://www.pollbludger.com/364
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 3:50 pm | PermalinkGreg Combet is a great person – a humble pollie – not many of them around. Makes me wonder if he’ll really prosper in Federal Parliament. It would be heartening to think he might. Who knows?
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 3:52 pm | PermalinkI think he’d be great.
But I wonder if there wasn’t some wisdom in his initial decision to concentrate all his energies on the union movement this term. He’s very skilfully held together conflicting interests among the unions and navigated some very tricky situations – both in terms of policy, the correct approach to take to the demise of the state based systems, and strategic direction. I think the union movement would be the loser, and there’s a lot to lose at the moment.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 3:59 pm | Permalink8 per cent makes much more sense. Unlike, say Maxine McKew, there is no point in Combet standing if it effectively takes him out of the campaign to topple a marginal seat.
I think the union movement would be the loser, and there
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 4:44 pm | PermalinkThe idea has certain attractions but I have strong reservations. I am concerned about antyhing that would dillute his visible leadership role. The media needs a credible spokesman and a credible symbol to latch on to in the anti-WC campaign. He (and Sharan Burrows, hearing her flirt with Stan Zemanek is a joy!) is the perfect conduit of the message to a wider audience, with his demeanour and respect from the James Hardie fight he’s very hard to attack as a self interested union hack blah blah blah by the usual suspects. He cuts through, on all levels. Having that in the ACTU is worth as much or even more to an ALP victory as a killer candidate in a marginal seat.
Killer marginal seat candidates are easier to come by than killer ACTU leaders.
That piccie is just cribbed from the Evatt site, you have raised our expectations with your photoshop contribution. Like Morris Iemma, don’t let us down.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 5:11 pm | PermalinkUnions scare campaign has already started including former union leader Nelson (and theyve corrected their weirdo margins for Charlton)
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 5:42 pm | Permalinkhttp://www.smh.com.au/news/National/A-vote-for-Labor-a-vote-for-unions-PM/2007/03/25/1174761268938.html
The reality is that the determination of IR in this country has moved into the Federal Parliament. That is where the insidious negation of union won conditions has emanated from, and is exactly the right place for an effective advocate like Greg Combet to be.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 5:59 pm | PermalinkSo true, the loss to the Union movement (or the little thats left of it) would be far greater than the benefit to the ALP.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 6:03 pm | PermalinkRe: update. Given the experience in the Hunter with Labor seats and preselection issues in the NSW election I would hope there would be, um, prudence shown by the powers that be. It really isn’t a good look.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 8:37 pm | PermalinkAgreed Amanda. If Kelly has to take a fall for the greater good, a decent compensation package is in order, pronto and discretely.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 9:48 pm | PermalinkI personally hope he stays at the ACTU. With Howard struggling to get a win on any topic without it backfiring on him, why give Howard a break even if it is only until the Federal police hand down the results of Printgate investigations or the Reserve Bank raises interest rates, whichever happens first.
Starving Howard of fodder for his scare campaigns needs to be an important consideration for Labor at this stage.
Posted on 25-Mar-07 at 10:50 pm | PermalinkWell, it’s been pushed forward early enough. Combet as politician? A real politician? Unreal. It’s a slap in the face for a semi-interested person on the street who sees a bit of a diverging of the politics of the day – someone who represents the first signs of punter awakening. On first blush it smacks of old time Labor. So what’s it about – take a lightning rod for media attention about IR away from the pedestal in the community park and shove him into local case by focused case, eyes glued to this street and that? He still gets to speak the big hits, but now is made relevent on those things, and more, in a do or die way. Instead of a generic voice, he’s been tied down, and from there the message resonates with reflected bite – is that the idea? Same national voice, local bite, do or die. Will the nation’s punters allow him in?
This far out there’s time, you’d imagine, but the whole thing speaks more of bankable confidence on the part of Labor that the IR debate will go their way.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 1:40 am | PermalinkI do not mean that Chris. I mean, it should not be happening at all. If GC is to make the switch it should be a marginal, winnable seat and one where no allegations of parachuting can be made, or at least less poignant ones. A sitting member on 8%. Hello? Look at Hunter, Lake Macquarie etc etc this past Saturday. (also, hardly sets a happy model of IR arrangements, I could write the Govt ads myself)
What is the point of the exercise if all his lustre comes off on the first day? What is the point if the message is lost in the inevitable noise about the process?
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 5:07 am | Permalinkit should be a marginal, winnable seat
No, Amanda. Local noise must be attended to, of course, but if Greg moves, it must be to a safe seat. Few things could be more insane than taking him out of the bigger struggle to go door-knocking in a marginal struggle. Even star candidates have to do a bit of this, of course, but the only point in Combet standing would be to take him into the national leadership team. Anything less would be unforgiveable waste.
I don’t want to caste aspersions on Kelly, about whom I know zip, but here’s Ramsey:
KELLY HOARE is a fortunate politician. For 18 years Robert James (Bob) Brown was a hard-working and conscientious federal Labor MP, for which his political reward was the better part of five of those years as a junior minister in the Hawke and Keating governments. Brown’s electorate was the NSW seat of Charlton, one of four in and around industrial Newcastle which, collectively, have never – never! – voted anything but Labor. And when Brown retired on the eve of the 1998 election, he was replaced by his daughter, whose key qualification seemed to be that she had been her father’s electorate secretary. Kelly Hoare is that fortunate daughter.
In other words, she appears to have no more claim than to have been parachuted into one of the safest ALP seats in the land from the womb. She’s had a good run, and deserves good treatment, but seats are hardly heriditary in Australia.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 8:42 am | Permalinktaking him out of the bigger struggle
The “bigger struggle” is the future of the labour movement/working conditions which he can attend to just as well with the ACTU.
She of course has the claim of living in the electorate and having been preselcted by members. These things still count, you know — and more important than the principle probably is that the media loves to beat preselection stoushes up. I see no reason to hand them a free kick. Especially as Hunter Labor has been given a box around the ears over these very issues in the election two days ago. Of course he can get a safe seat and that will be fine. But no going that route builds more goodwill, makes him harder to attack as a celebrity candidate (see: McKew) and may actually contribute to ALP winning the election — which they will not do without winning those marginal seats.
I suspect its a fait accompli anyway now so it hardly matters. But I regard Combet as an ace not to be thrown on the table lightly.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 8:59 am | PermalinkIn any event, Combet is denying any such plans again today.
But anyway — and this is serious — Labor almost lost the seat of Newcastle this past weekend. Newcastle! Almost lost by Labor! Talk about insanity. And why? Because they kicked out a sitting MP to put in a celebrity candidate. Now, Jodi McKay hardly lights up the joint and is one millionth of the asset somelike Combet would be but there is a message there. As important as this area is and has been to the Labor party and the labour movement, a period of TLC is required.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 9:12 am | PermalinkWell, that’s that. In some ways, most ways actually, I’m relieved he’s not going. It was the sudden absence of a denial and the detail on the seat which gave this round of rumours credence.
Still, I reckon it would be a good idea to send someone in to bloody well straighten up the ALP in the Newcastle area. Looks like a cess pit to me (although I agree with you on the Jodi thing).
McKew and Combet are very different candidates. Max is ideal for a marginal, especially against the PM. Greg, no way in the world – a complete waste.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 1:46 pm | Permalinkwhy would Combet be a glamour candidate?
I can’t even see why he would be a good candidate. What about Evan Thornly for pete’s sake?
Of all ACTU candidates only RJ Hawke stands out.
Crean was soso, Ferguson & George believe in rank and file selection so much they don’t have them and have been failures to say the least.
the Best parliament from the ACTU was Ralph Willis.
Get rid of Hacks, former union officials and ‘research officers’.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 4:28 pm | Permalinkput in people from the real world
I hope Combet sticks with his original inclinations to stay out of the Canberra bearpit. This is particularly so if he is being seduced by some ALP heavies to take the soft option such as Charlton.
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 5:05 pm | PermalinkI think Amanda is on the money, that a ‘celebrity’ or even a big union candidate being installed in a Hunter seat at this time is absolute heresy, given what has occurred in the State election. Without buying into who will win in Newcastle, Maitland and Lake Macquarie electorates, the linking of Combet with the CFMEU would be poison. I can’t understand the Federal ALP wanting any dealings with the union that sank Latham’s chances in Tasmania in 2004. Someone should be showing this bunch the door.
I can
Posted on 26-Mar-07 at 5:33 pm | Permalink