Comments on: Missing Link’s Election Prediction Dare

By: Mike Flower

Mike Flower — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 03:20:11 +0000

ah, fellow bloggers, I’ve only just discovered this site. And, by chance I looked at betting trends at the same time, as they are seldom referred to in the media. And, you people are correct – its where people put their $$$ is what matters.

Honestly, you want to live in Perth, and be fed the one newspapers right wing bias to understand why Perth people are “somewhat different” to the rest of you.

And, I guess we will still watch the “Kerry O’Brien Circus” with interest but a wry grin……… Cheers from “enlightened Perth” (chokes, falls over)

By: Bring Back CL's blog

Bring Back CL's blog — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 01:27:29 +0000

Yes we have.

ALP 91 Independents 3 Coalition 56

By: Geoff Honnor

Geoff Honnor — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 20:02:21 +0000

Haven’t we already done this? Anyway, it’s still:

ALP 91, Coalition 57, Ind 2.

By: Nabakov

Nabakov — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 19:09:13 +0000

ALP by a RCH. (RCH? It’s a technical term implying fine tolerances, anecdotally coined by aerospace engineers during WW2. And also used here as a cryptic allusion to the possibility that some swinging female voters could well welcome a woman only an earwax choking incident away from the top job.)

By: Mike Flower

Mike Flower — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 14:18:29 +0000

Again I’ve checked the seats counted as “won” on centrebet as of tonight 11.15pm Perth time : 80 ALP; 68 Coaltion; 2 Independant. John Howards seat is included as a “won” as are Leichard, Longman, Petrie in Qld but the odds are so close, anything could occur.

Looking at Anthony Greens website, using the NineMSN by State poll conducted from 30 oct – 12 Nov gives 82 ALP, 66 Coalition, 2 Ind.

If you were to believe the totally biased “The West Australian Newspaper” its saying John Howards closed the gap, its a swing to the govt and it looks like a 50:50 bet. Oddly, the actual betting says the oposite. But, mind you, WA is a bit backward………

By: Mike Flower

Mike Flower — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 14:53:01 +0000

I’ve counted each seat that Centrebet calls a “win” = ALP 79, Coalition 69, Independants 2 = 150 (as at 15 Nov 2007)

By: Roger Migently

Roger Migently — Sun, 21 Oct 2007 09:07:00 +0000

Since you ask, in an MA-rated post about beauty and the golden ratio (1.6188033:1, more or less) we did have this:

If there were beauty in politics it would be a nicely proportioned swing of about 7.8%. Majority of 38 : Labor 93, Coalition 55, Independents 2.

Completely unscientific, but very conservative compared to the ABC's swing-meter at the time.

By: stephen bartos

stephen bartos — Sun, 21 Oct 2007 08:28:31 +0000

OK, for what it’s worth, here’s a prediction of labor 77, coalition 69, independents 4. But of course, the longer the competition remains open, the more likely the last person to comment wins…BUT it also means an early poster who is right gets much more kudos.

By: Ken Lovell

Ken Lovell — Sun, 21 Oct 2007 07:27:40 +0000

LOL the only prediction I’m making is that we’ll get a conservative prime minister.

By: El Nino

El Nino — Sun, 21 Oct 2007 04:01:35 +0000

ALP 79
Lib/Nat 69
Others 2

Based on a quick squiz at the polls, betting market and who my mum likes.

By: murph the surf

murph the surf — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 10:25:30 +0000

Taking a position based on a cliffhanger.
ALP 72
Libs 66
Nats 8
Others 4.

By: Jacques Chester

Jacques Chester — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 03:35:39 +0000

LDP, 1-5 seats. I’m thinking of putting my last $10 on myself in Solomon.

By: haiku

haiku — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 03:34:52 +0000

ALP 91 seats.
Predict early, predict often.

By: James Farrell

James Farrell — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 02:37:07 +0000

Deepest apologies, Ken, for that rare departure from scrupulous attribution. But now you’re here, what about a prediction?

By: Ken Lovell

Ken Lovell — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 21:35:42 +0000

Hmph, like I would link to a video linked by everybody else. It was Tim, making a guest appearance on his own blog :-).

By: Liam

Liam — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 13:41:10 +0000

Me, 2am on the 25th, in tears, drunk as a muppet. Joy or despair, I’m pretty easy to please.

By: James Farrell

James Farrell — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 13:38:24 +0000

Good. And your prediction, Liam?

By: Liam

Liam — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 13:33:24 +0000

*She’s* arleeshar.