Comments on: Weekend Missing Link (More predictions, please!)

By: Jezery

Jezery — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 05:03:06 +0000

Local ABC radio interviewed astrologer Milton Black last Friday. Based on the date of the election and Howard and Rudd’s bithdates, he predicts that the Libs will hold government with a majority of about 5-7 seats.

He also predicted that the RBA will not raise rates next week.

Personally, while I think there will be a substantial 2PP swing to the ALP, I can’t shake the feeling that Howard’s targetting of marginal seats will work and Rudd will fall a couple of seats short of the 16 he needs to win.

By: saint

saint — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 04:47:28 +0000

Um, I predict Xenophon will win a seat in the Senate, just as he did in the SA parliament: on the back of voters who are simply pissed off with all major political parties. I almost think SA – or at least Adelaide – will go wall to wall Labor (although my electorate’s Liberal candidate seems pretty OK and might, just, get, up)

I also predict the Dems will be annihilated, the Greens will lose ground, two independents will win seats in the lower house (including O’Connor, stupid move dumping him, Labor)

Oh, and I predict that I will have a tough time chosing who I want to lose their seat most: Howard or Turnbull and that I might be disappointed on both.

By: David Rubie

David Rubie — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 01:08:25 +0000

Gee Robert, how about a prediction that isn’t already true?

Labor: 100 seats even. The libs will not get through the next four weeks without turning into a desperate rabble, the stitching is already coming undone.

By: Robert

Robert — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 23:53:49 +0000

I predict a face on Janette which could curdle milk at five hundred paces.

By: derrida derider

derrida derider — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 23:14:16 +0000

A comfortable but not annihilating Labor victory – say a 12 seat majority.

The two-party vote will be lopsided (say 57-43) but this won’t translate into a landslide in seats this election. But the consequent redistributions will greatly help Labor in the next one.

The Greens to hold the balance of power in the Senate, which should make climate change policy interesting.

By: Tim Lambert

Tim Lambert — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 12:37:40 +0000

Labor by 30.

By: MarkL

MarkL — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 04:21:14 +0000

A week ago, I was thinking along the lines of ALP by 13 seats. Now? ALP by 8.

MarkL
Canberra

By: Jim Belshaw

Jim Belshaw — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 04:02:06 +0000

For what it’s worth, and that’s not a lot, my best guess is that the vote will be all over the place.

Labor will get big swings in its existing seats and in some of the metro seats including Liberal blue ribbons. I think that there is a better than fifty fifty chance Mr Howard will lose his seat, with a strong chance of a whitewash in Adelaide. There will also be swings in the so-called mortgage belt.

Outside the metro, the vote will again be all over the place. However, here I expect the coalition to hold its own. My feeling is that the commentators including bloggers are unrepesentative.

The end result? A Labor victory, but by less than the polls predict.

In seat terms, I am not watching the usual suspects but the New England/NSW north coast seats.

In the senate, I am watching the Green vote. I think that this is soft. I badly hope, and this is personal prejudice, that the Dems do better than expected. I think that Andrew, as an example, is worth his weight in gum nuts.

My best guess? The coalition will hold up better than expected, supported by Family First preferences, leading to a non- Government majority.

There you go, forecasts made in uncertainty and ignorance.

By: Doug

Doug — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 03:48:22 +0000

ALP to win 25 seats: House of Reps: ALP 84 seat – 3 Independents, 63 coalition

ALP to win:
NT – 1 seat
Tas – 2 seats
WA – 1 seat
SA – 4 seats
Vic – 6 seats
NSW – 5 seats
Qld – 6 seats

ALP to win
Bennelong but not Wentworth

By: Bring Back CL's blog

Bring Back CL's blog — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 02:55:41 +0000

I agree with the Honnored Gentleman

By: ChrisPer

ChrisPer — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 02:45:08 +0000

Liberal by four seats, and like the result of the Republic referendum: the entire gobsmacked commentariat will explode in bile against racist Australians, and pretend their predictions never happened.

By: Rex

Rex — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 02:21:23 +0000

ALP by six seats. It’ll be trumpeted as a Howard triumph by Dennis Shanahan, restoring the coalition to a respectable defeat in the face of overwhelming odds. The hunt will begin for someone to blame however. Bolt and Albrectson will remind everyone that if only they’d been listened too, and the job handed to Costello, that Howard’s legacy would be unblemished, providing a symbolic victory at least, and setting thing up for next time. Henderson and the other arch conservatives will be ropable that the Bolt and Albrectson didn’t stick with the ‘disunity is death’ discipline that had stood them all in good stead for eleven years. No one will be able to agree on which bits of the culture wars they won, and the conservative columnists will descend into a spiralling round of hissy fits and accusations. Mirroring very much what will be happening in the Liberal party.

By: Niall

Niall — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 23:31:15 +0000

Balance in the Senate. And on the issue of balance, what about some Motorsport when it’s run, hmmmm?

By: Geoff Honnor

Geoff Honnor — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 23:25:04 +0000

91 ALP; 57 Coalition; 2 Ind.

By: Nick

Nick — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 15:41:17 +0000

Labor to get 95 seats.

By: James Farrell

James Farrell — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 11:05:13 +0000

Homer, you don’t get to comment on this thread unless you make a prediction. So, out with it.

By: Bring Back CL's blog

Bring Back CL's blog — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 10:54:25 +0000

the anhiliator is NOT a conservative christian.
HE is a liberal anglo-catholic.

Try studying which church he goes to!!!

By: Liam

Liam — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 07:02:06 +0000

Vee, Parramatta is already held by Labor, it’s just redistributed to look Liberal. I think you’re right though, Owens should re-win it.
I predict the Democrats will be outpolled on Senate first preferences by Family First in every State but NSW, where they will be beaten by the CDP (Fred Nile’s lot, who have a gentlemen’s agreement with FF).
I predict John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull will increase their margins in Bennelong and Wentworth, leading to a few tears on polling night, though the election overall will go to Labor.
I predict the LDP candidate for Dobell will get something in the area of 500 primary votes.

By: Vee

Vee — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 06:14:41 +0000

I predict a narrow Labor victory.

I predict

Kingston, Braddon, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Parramatta, Hasluck, Stirling, Bass, Solomon, Moreton, Lindsay, Eden Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell and Deakin will fall to Labor

By: Fleeced

Fleeced — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 05:18:07 +0000

After using the ABC’s state by state prediction tool, I’m thinking it will be a narrow victory for the libs, but with the TPP favouring Labor.

Uncertain on seat of Bennelong, though I’m pretty sure Turnbull will maintain Wentworth. Remember, Turnbull won party endorsement against the sitting Liberal, who then ran against him as an independent at the last election – so his “real” margin is probably higher than the 2.5% reported.