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	<title>Comments on: More on interest rates and tax cuts</title>
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	<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/</link>
	<description>Fearlessly dispensing political, legal and economic analysis (and some whimsy) since 2002</description>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-198492</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Nov 2007 01:57:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-198492</guid>
		<description>Well I must say, I&#039;m disappointed with the response from both Alex and Sinclair.  If I put an argument into the public arena &lt;a href=&quot;http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/07/05/why-isnt-australia-exporting-more-funds-management-services/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;I try to defend it when it comes under attack&lt;/a&gt;. 

I try to &lt;a href=&quot;http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/11/03/rountine-campaign-lies/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;admit it when I&#039;m wrong&lt;/a&gt;. 

I&#039;m not sure what the point of this blog would be if that wasn&#039;t going on.  That&#039;s it&#039;s point for me anyway.  But we can&#039;t get engagement from Alex or Sinclair on their ideas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well I must say, I&#8217;m disappointed with the response from both Alex and Sinclair.  If I put an argument into the public arena <a href="http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/07/05/why-isnt-australia-exporting-more-funds-management-services/">I try to defend it when it comes under attack</a>. </p>
<p>I try to <a href="http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/11/03/rountine-campaign-lies/">admit it when I&#8217;m wrong</a>. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure what the point of this blog would be if that wasn&#8217;t going on.  That&#8217;s it&#8217;s point for me anyway.  But we can&#8217;t get engagement from Alex or Sinclair on their ideas.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197589</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Nov 2007 04:48:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197589</guid>
		<description>Alex - is there any chance of drawing you out further in your own defence? Because I can&#039;t make head or tail of your article. 

You call a rise in prices of &quot;resources, including labour&quot; a change in relative prices.  What is the change in &#039;relative&#039; prices relative to?  It looks to me like the price of all resources rises - presumably in the empirical world there&#039;s a spread of price rises - with some average overall price rise being involved.  That  looks like a change in the price &lt;em&gt;level&lt;/em&gt; to me. 

You then contrast this with &#039;inflation&#039;.  Now I expected you to say - along the lines of Brendan&#039;s discussion with James in the earlier thread that &#039;inflation&#039; is an &lt;em&gt;ongoing&lt;/em&gt; change in prices. Whereas what we&#039;re witnessing is (according to certain assumptions) a one off change.  

But you don&#039;t say that.  

You say &quot;Inflation occurs when the value of money itself falls.&quot;

Well, call me old fashioned but I can&#039;t see the difference in the general price level rising and the value of money falling.

Then you propose this idea that tax cuts will increase employment.  I don&#039;t follow this.  As I understand it, if tax cuts increase demand beyond a certain level the RBA will feel forced to raise rates to restore price stability - and when will they be comfortable that they&#039;ve achieved that?  At about the level they were at before the tax cuts.  

So I can&#039;t see how you can say that the tax cuts increase employment.  (Indeed it&#039;s hard to see them doing it even temporarily, because the RBA will react pretty immediately and is forward looking as are the markets). 

So it&#039;s all a mystery to me.  As you can see, James analysis leads to similar conclusions about your argument (that it is fallacious) via a quite different route.  I&#039;d be grateful for some explanation of what that argument is and how it survives our critiques.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alex &#8211; is there any chance of drawing you out further in your own defence? Because I can&#8217;t make head or tail of your article. </p>
<p>You call a rise in prices of &#8220;resources, including labour&#8221; a change in relative prices.  What is the change in &#8216;relative&#8217; prices relative to?  It looks to me like the price of all resources rises &#8211; presumably in the empirical world there&#8217;s a spread of price rises &#8211; with some average overall price rise being involved.  That  looks like a change in the price <em>level</em> to me. </p>
<p>You then contrast this with &#8216;inflation&#8217;.  Now I expected you to say &#8211; along the lines of Brendan&#8217;s discussion with James in the earlier thread that &#8216;inflation&#8217; is an <em>ongoing</em> change in prices. Whereas what we&#8217;re witnessing is (according to certain assumptions) a one off change.  </p>
<p>But you don&#8217;t say that.  </p>
<p>You say &#8220;Inflation occurs when the value of money itself falls.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well, call me old fashioned but I can&#8217;t see the difference in the general price level rising and the value of money falling.</p>
<p>Then you propose this idea that tax cuts will increase employment.  I don&#8217;t follow this.  As I understand it, if tax cuts increase demand beyond a certain level the RBA will feel forced to raise rates to restore price stability &#8211; and when will they be comfortable that they&#8217;ve achieved that?  At about the level they were at before the tax cuts.  </p>
<p>So I can&#8217;t see how you can say that the tax cuts increase employment.  (Indeed it&#8217;s hard to see them doing it even temporarily, because the RBA will react pretty immediately and is forward looking as are the markets). </p>
<p>So it&#8217;s all a mystery to me.  As you can see, James analysis leads to similar conclusions about your argument (that it is fallacious) via a quite different route.  I&#8217;d be grateful for some explanation of what that argument is and how it survives our critiques.</p>
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		<title>By: Jc</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197173</link>
		<dc:creator>Jc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 12:45:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197173</guid>
		<description>There are numerous examples of nations raising taxes and inflation isn&#039;t dampened. South America will oblige as a case study.

Managing inflation through the tax rates is taking us back to the 70&#039;s. In other words it is sheer twaddle.

Inflation- currency debasement- is a monetary problem and nothing else while tax policy is all about raising money to finance government expenditure.

Robson&#039;&#039;s point is a good one. Why have a central bank if you can manage currency debasement through tax rates? Just keep changing the tax rates every month to hit the CPI target. That ought to do it. Piece of cake, right?

James, try this thought experiment. Take Mugabe land. Raise the tax rate 30% and then see what happens to the 1 mill% inflation rate. It wouldn&#039;t budge simply because the printing presses are on 24/7.

We were messing with tax rates all through the 70s as a demand management exercise and it was a sorry Keynesian mess. Every budget produced changes to tax rates and inflation simply went one way. Inflation is monetary problem and that can only be managed through monetary policy.

Why not manage fiscal policy through the monetary levers then. Oh, we already do that.


&quot;Yes, of course, in an overheated economy a tax increase would dampen inflation. I cant believe its even an issue.&quot;

Follow the money chain, james and you will have yoru answer. the money has to come from somewhere, right? The central bank put the money in circulation in the first place, which is then taxed and returned to the government in the form of a surplus through taxes. If you think the surplus being returned is inflationary than you need to ask why that money was printed in the first place. Look no further than Martin Place.


A surplus is an exercise in wastful futility. The money ought to be returned to its rightful owners.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are numerous examples of nations raising taxes and inflation isn&#8217;t dampened. South America will oblige as a case study.</p>
<p>Managing inflation through the tax rates is taking us back to the 70&#8242;s. In other words it is sheer twaddle.</p>
<p>Inflation- currency debasement- is a monetary problem and nothing else while tax policy is all about raising money to finance government expenditure.</p>
<p>Robson&#8221;s point is a good one. Why have a central bank if you can manage currency debasement through tax rates? Just keep changing the tax rates every month to hit the CPI target. That ought to do it. Piece of cake, right?</p>
<p>James, try this thought experiment. Take Mugabe land. Raise the tax rate 30% and then see what happens to the 1 mill% inflation rate. It wouldn&#8217;t budge simply because the printing presses are on 24/7.</p>
<p>We were messing with tax rates all through the 70s as a demand management exercise and it was a sorry Keynesian mess. Every budget produced changes to tax rates and inflation simply went one way. Inflation is monetary problem and that can only be managed through monetary policy.</p>
<p>Why not manage fiscal policy through the monetary levers then. Oh, we already do that.</p>
<p>&#8220;Yes, of course, in an overheated economy a tax increase would dampen inflation. I cant believe its even an issue.&#8221;</p>
<p>Follow the money chain, james and you will have yoru answer. the money has to come from somewhere, right? The central bank put the money in circulation in the first place, which is then taxed and returned to the government in the form of a surplus through taxes. If you think the surplus being returned is inflationary than you need to ask why that money was printed in the first place. Look no further than Martin Place.</p>
<p>A surplus is an exercise in wastful futility. The money ought to be returned to its rightful owners.</p>
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		<title>By: James Farrell</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197155</link>
		<dc:creator>James Farrell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 10:02:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197155</guid>
		<description>Yes, of course, in an overheated economy a tax increase would dampen inflation. I can&#039;t believe it&#039;s even an issue. As for the second question, the Reserve Bank has a prudential role in addition to its role in macroeconomic management, so I assume the question refers only to the latter. We use monetary instruments to manage aggregate demand because (1) two instruments are better than one, and fiscal policy is subject to other constraints and objectives; and (2) the monetary authorities are independent of politics, which is now understood as crucial to their credibility, and in turn to its ability to influence expectations. These are hardly revolutionary propositions -- I&#039;m only setting out the received wisdom here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, of course, in an overheated economy a tax increase would dampen inflation. I can&#8217;t believe it&#8217;s even an issue. As for the second question, the Reserve Bank has a prudential role in addition to its role in macroeconomic management, so I assume the question refers only to the latter. We use monetary instruments to manage aggregate demand because (1) two instruments are better than one, and fiscal policy is subject to other constraints and objectives; and (2) the monetary authorities are independent of politics, which is now understood as crucial to their credibility, and in turn to its ability to influence expectations. These are hardly revolutionary propositions &#8212; I&#8217;m only setting out the received wisdom here.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Robson</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197122</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Robson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 06:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-197122</guid>
		<description>James: So does that mean an increase in taxes would lower inflation?  If that&#039;s the case, why do we need the Reserve Bank?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James: So does that mean an increase in taxes would lower inflation?  If that&#8217;s the case, why do we need the Reserve Bank?</p>
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		<title>By: johng</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-196899</link>
		<dc:creator>johng</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Oct 2007 09:30:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/28/more-on-interest-rates-and-tax-cuts/#comment-196899</guid>
		<description>It perplexes me that Sinclair Davidson is a Professor of Economics at RMIT. He tries hard, but the quality of his work does not seem to justify a professorship.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It perplexes me that Sinclair Davidson is a Professor of Economics at RMIT. He tries hard, but the quality of his work does not seem to justify a professorship.</p>
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