The PM appears to be sitting nicely a couple of weeks out. Newspoll has him coming home at a comfortable clip. Gotta love the Melbourne Cup. The sick, mad and giddy apart, gambling makes the punters think about taking risks. Follow up with a rate rise. Between the laws of probability and the definition of commerce, most punters will have lost money. As they lose confidence in taking risks, blap them with a rate rise. Hang the last election. Force the risk-averse suckers to bet on the next race.
Mr Howard defines ground zero. Will you back me in the next rate race? You don’t like WorkChoices, but it’s an anti-inflation, anti-rate plan to save your house, plus an unemployment rate of 3 per cent. The ALP has inflation-fueling unions which will let the rate monster out of the cupboard. Back me to save your house against your job and income under WorkChoices, with the lowest unemployment since the early 1970s. What is it? Make up your mind. Risk a perilous rate rise or a cosy rat race?
I suspect this will be the crucial test of Kevin Rudd, at least this time. No doubt there’s a political theory on how he should manage the moment for everyone able to have a political theory, and I’d hate to make the calls. I could more comfortably run a political campaign for an enemy. There’s a crazy freedom in being a mercenary, when it’s just a job, a paycheck, key performance indicators and a pile of bullshit.
Alas, my disapproval of the Prime Minister is in perfectly inverse proportion to my approval of the alternative. Such high stakes are excruciating. I can barely watch, let alone wish to be responsible. For two bob, I say Mr Rudd must meet this moment head on. No resting on opinion polls, slick advertising, small targets or whatever. The response must be full frontal: an all-guns blazing, scorched earth, take no prisoners, empty the purse, spectrum-dominating rebuttal, in a gentle Ruddster kinda way.
For someone who said he wasn’t peeking at the close ups until the old bell goes at 6.pm on election night. you sure are rubbernecking a lot, CS.
Don’t worry about a thing. Rudd will be the PM.
Let me guess. You were watching High Noon.
The polls this morning show Johnboy and his mob are closing the gap. It’s hard to know what to make of the polls because the gap about 1 – 2 weeks ago was as much as 14 points in favour of Krudd. I think it’s still hard to pick the winner. One thing is for sure and that is that no matter who wins Australia and Australians will be the losers.
What did Costello say as reported on Lateline last night regarding rate rises? These things are outside the control of a Government. Labor has a few angles: frame this rate rise with Howard’s 22% to give the impression of “say anything do anything but we need a reality check”; frame Costello’s comment as out of touch and while at it that it blows apart LNP’s attack line on Labor; above all empathise with the public who’ll hurt by this rate rise – be great to announce a policy to assist this and capture the public sentiment; and lay down a theme to work out of so the economy doesn’t become front and centre.. ie, this is not just about rates, it’s about.. (usual themes)
Fun to muse while without the weight of responsibility on it. Each thought must magnify in one’s mind to insecure degrees: keeping that balance (as Rudd has done) looks to be an incredible skill. Plenty have blown it, let’s face it.
It’s three weeks out, which is a heck of a long time; you may get some comfort from that cs. The impact on the bank statement won’t have hit yet, with plenty of time for this to be moulded one way or another at the party’s will. In fact, it’s perfect timing for Labor’s TV ads: pick up the Costello/Howard comments in the next few days, add them to the pot, and ride through with the ads while it’s fresh enough in peoples’ minds to be relevent and not mere mud. (Speaking of dastardliness, would Howard go to that extent? Would he actually use the latest interest rate rises in his own TV ads?
Some things can be safely gambled on, however. In a beautifully developing theme, as the inner madness presents come The Day, you can be sure of a parade of dressings-ups come along for morning walks.
Noting too, you can crank out a blog post digger.
Kevin Rudd should stop talking about interest rates and economic management. Completely. Now. Howard’s strategy in turning an interest rate rise on its head to make it a positive for him is predicated on the assumption that any discussion of rates and the economy works in his favour, especially with things looking more and more rocky in the US.
There is a huge temptation for Labor to point to Howard’s broken promise on keeping interest rates at record lows but this is just playing into Howard’s hands, however counter-intuitive that may seem at face value.
to those who wish to find out whether there has been a narrowing of the polls let me recommend and inspection of the graphs prepared by Peter Brent at mumble, Bryan Palmer at OzPolitics and by the esteemed Possum at Possums Pollytics.
These in varying ways identify the trends in the polls and remove the statistical noise that is inherent in any single poll and any quirks arising from a shift in votes for minor parties and the way various pollsters try and estimate preferences.
to take this monring’s Newspoll the change in the vote resulted from an increase in the Green vote and an unrealistic assessment by Newspoll about the flow of Green preferences. In reality probably zero movement from last week.
Go read and enjoy and become a more cautious interpreter of what polss do and do not tell us.
Even anthony Green drops in to plogg on the Possum’s site and also at The Pollbludger’s site – another source of psephological debate
It’s not any particular line that Mr. Howard has run that has swung the polls ever so slightly back. What’s he done? What’s he said that could have done it? Nothing. Its just a settling back into a more sustainable groove. That groove though is far from where the Libs want it to be.
They say that this is the big week for Mr. Howard. He’s ditched his “Go for growth” strategy in favour of the “would you rather things turn to shit with me in charge or other bloke?” strategy.
Mr. Howard has “run up the white flag” as Mr. Rudd says. He’s effectively saying that because he can’t really control interest rates, that proves that things would be worse under Labor. He may as well, while he’s at it admit that the terrorists are going to take over as well.
The folk aren’t going to buy it. They don’t read the Fin, they recking that Sub Prime is a three foot long baguette. They’ll wonder what the daffy old grey haired fella is on about now -in these last coupla weeks.
But they will remember (or think they remember) that he promised that he could control interest rates. And the Ruddster’s “big interest rate con” needs only to be expanded to the “big financial meltdown con”.
Let’s just cross our fingers that the markets hang in there for three more weeks.
I like the Ruddster’s razor gang. I reckon he could follow up with a litany of funny governent waste (this lot will be appointing Lords of the Ports somewhere or other? How about cutting whatever payments go to those clowns comprising the Quadrant circus on the board of the ABC?). Perhaps opening some lines of attack behind Howard’s lines could also be fruitful. Real business (as distinct from financial buisiness) cannot be entirely happy with Howard’s balls-up on inflation.
“….spectrum dominating rebuttal in a gentle, Ruddster kind of way.” Well put. It feels to me that’s what Rudd is already serving up. Yesterday his comment was on Howard “hauling up the white flag” and today “that stinks” about the suggestion that a rate rise might be a good thing for the government. I’ve often longed for him to go in harder with the brilliant incisiveness he showed over AWB, particularly to respond in kind to the anti-Union stuff. Yet by his not doing so the Coalition seem increasingly strident and desperate. If softly, softly has brought him this far, this quickly, and won him sixty percent unwavering approval since January I guess he can manage the next fortnight or so.
Frankly, it’s not today’s rate rise that any politician needs to be concerned about. It’s the next one, which I reckon will come along in February 2008.
Tonight’s coverage may change it, but can’t help feeling this rise falls into the already-cemented basket of “can’t trust politicians”, and punters remain with theirs coloured per usual.
Can we fast forward two weeks? Howard rabbiting on about how piss-hot he and his team is as economic managers and how much we need him (surely pointing to the converse) is gutfull stuff. Given the ‘hundred mentions to penetrate’ thing, how will the punters get the message? My bias against Howard leaves me uncertain, while questioning the actual strength of this line. It’s certainly not clear cut – the LNP remarks have so far been mixed; at least, they’ll have to sharpen it up. Will it end up being too weak a case to make, and the punters get sick of it, adding to the “tired time to go”?
What it may do is bring the Coalition back in the polls to just where Rudd would prefer – “the result is uncertain, if you want to make the switch, then you have to act.”
Bring on the last week.
On the razor gang – Rudd said this long ago, and good to see it back. Something like this gets said every vote especially when a fresh face presents, and is well received.
Vote changers anywhere yet, though? Nothing substantial for mine.
(Addendum: how good it is to be able to get away with the saying “Rudd said this long ago”. He’s bedded in, and yet fresh. Yo Byoty.)
Surely after today’s debacle you’re feeling a little more confident Chris?
All Howard can guarantee, should we (ahem) trust him further in the face of more belt tightening for Working Families, (does that catchphrase imply that two incomes are no longer sufficient to pay the mortgage and buy the groceries and that all family members, dog included, must go out to work? But I digress) . . . All Howard can guarantee is that wages will not rise. Brilliant! The man’s a genius.
I’m still vaguely worried about the possibility of a Machiavellian aspect to this, but I’m more inclined to think the silly old fart has lost his grip completely.
Ruddster’s response was very good. I hope it got a good airing all over the TV networks.
I’m no judge. I have so little doubt about the Ruddster as a high quality alternative PM that all I can see is anything that can get in the way.
Kevin is doing especially well when he says: “Now we find that that promise has been broken on six separate occasions every 15 weeks in fact since the intro of Work Choices have we had a rate rise.”
I’d like to see some breaks behind enemy lines. I’d also like to see some more lines opened up on productivity (What’s the best way to raise productivity and keep interest rates low? Share the benefits! Say no to WorkChoices!)
Most of all, I want to see the ALP keep meeting this head on. I disagree with Flash. You can’t change the topic until this one has been worked through. One of Latham’s mistakes was to try to ignore Howard’s agenda, most obviously on interest rates. This weekend should tell us which way the things breaking.
Actually CS, the only way you can increase productivity is by raising the capital to labor ratio. Ie increasing the savings pool.
That’s jsut an aside.
The way to raise the capital to labour ratio is to share the benefits of the productivity gain with labour, but I sound like I’m repeating myself, once removed, in the slow lane.
And you’re suggesting the benefits wouldn’t be shared in free market conditions?
Don’t need unions or collective bargaining for that to happen. Free markets work, CS. You ought to trust them more and not put your faith in the idea that only government intervention will improve living standards.
Your circuits are broken JC. The format is dreary. You say something presumptuous, I correct you, you make a fresh presumption, and I corre…
… and eventually we end up in a black hole of Austrian econo-madness.
I refuse to enter the land of jc-speak. To save time, you may take it as read that I probably disagree with almost everything you wish to say.
What happened? Has the rate rise political issue fizzered already? Did it end in the sorry state(ment)? How does Howard build on that?
Is there a rabbit in the official launch?
Surely, it can’t be more of this?
Seems to have been a complete balls up. Political implosion, live. Am I dreaming?
13 days to go.
Only seven restless sleeps. Is that God I see? Without breasts?