Secret Internal polling conducted exclusively for Club Troppo, has found its way into the public domain today. This new poll, a welcome addition to the cacophony of other polls testing the mood of the nation reveals that my confidence in the Government as effective economic managers has dipped one percentage point from 51.5% to 50.5%, barely a pass. It is unclear whether I attribute this decline to the recent rise in official interest rates which severely embarrassed the Government, or whether this is a statistical fluctuation within the bounds of the margin of error. If this trend continues over the next two weeks however, thing will be looking dire indeed for the Government when I step into the polling booth on the 24th.
Dennis Shanahan of The Australian, on the other hand sees only upside in these numbers. Mr. Shanahan describes this as the classic pre-poll hockey-stick curve, and that were in the dip part. Its an indication that the voters are starting to engage, said Mr. Shanahan. Its like one of those spring loaded kids toy guns, he explained. You have to push it down and wait for it to click before you can pull the trigger. This is evidence that things have only just started to click with Mr. Ringschott
In the driest and slyest of digs, the psephological blogs (bloggers who comment on the polling numbers) have taken to placing a link on their websites to the polling trends and then immediately adjacent, a link to Mr. Shanahans latest interpretations, with an invitation to their readers to judge for themselves. Many are, and many are finding Mr, Shanahans interpretations wanting.
Of course well just have to wait and see how this all pans out. Anything can happen between now and election day. If big spending promises are targeted into this voters back pocket by Mr. Howard at todays campaign launch, then there is every possibility that it will improve my confidence in the ability of the Government to manage the economy responsibly. However, some pundits warn that this will backfire on the Government. They speculate that I will be tempted into premature celebration and get shitfaced on the night of 23rd resulting in failure to turn up to vote at all.
Be assured though, Club Troppo will do its upmost bring you these fascinating insights into my voting intentions as we count down to election day. So stay tuned!
A brilliant benchmark for Shanahan paradoy!
Please include me in your email broadcasting Mr Ringshott. And if you were able to out yourself on election day, so much the better.
Are you really 50.5% Evan Thonley?
Statistical significnace and margin of error are overated. If the figures are stalled on a sea of voter apathy you still want the stationary trend to be in your direction.
Mr. Shanahan’s relation to the toy gun reminds me of the things PJK used to say! (e.g. the J curve)
Aha! This secret polling data also seems to indicate you’ve been voting for the pest since ’96 — pleeze esplane . . .
(I always thought the “J-curve” was a Melbourne U-turn?)
This secret polling data also seems to indicate youve been voting for the pest since 96
A Ha. A most intriguing question Hip. Have I been rodentifying without my knowledge? Well let me say, there are known knowns, there are known unknowns, and there are unknown unknowns, and as far as I know, I know I have not voted Lib since I voted for Jeff Kennett to take over from whats-her-name.
The Rodent is no Jeff Kennett.
Bugga, I musta been thinking of the unknown knowns (the “Ruperts”, as we call ’em around here).