Are we there yet?
Posted by Christopher Sheil on Thursday, November 15, 2007
Ever so gently, Kevin Rudd is looming into full view. The ALP launch was high politics. Not only did we see Bob Hawke and Paul Keating holding hands, in one swoop, the alternative leader deeply wedged the government forces with a bold fiscal policy and shored up his own side with anti-WorkChoices pledges. Anything can still happen, especially when we’re talking John Howard. As we head into the home straight, however, it’s looking like the Ruddster plus everyone from the Reserve Bank through to the ACTU and beyond versus the profligate retiree who, as far as anyone can really tell at this stage, has only sown up the orangutan vote. Fingers crossed.
This entry was posted on Thursday, November 15th, 2007 at 12:06 AM and filed under Politics - national.
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Yes Christopher, it was a magnificent speech. I clapped after every second word that Mr Rudd uttered. I clapped so hard that my hands, bloodied and bruised, had to be swathed in bandages. At one stage I developed a gravity-defying erection. All this took place in Liberal Party H/Qs and not surprisingly I was asked to leave.
And Mr Rudd, after committing the ALP to spending AUD$50 billion, labels Johnboy profligate. Pure gold! Dont you love Oz politics. You can always tell when an Australian politician and an endangered animal are standing on the road: youll always see skid marks leading up to the animal.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 7:19 am | PermalinkFunnily enough, whilst leading up to Election 04 at this stage I was still hopelessly optimistic…right now I can’t shake my feeling of impending doom.
(Yes, I freely admit I did admire Mark Latham, and am one of the few who’ve never gotten over that loss. I could make excuses for it, but won’t bother).
I missed the Labor campaign launch, but saw the Liberal launch. I’m hanging my head in shame for this.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 8:13 am | PermalinkThe editorials all applaud Rudd’s low spending stance (which is being challenged by the Government although not very convincingly). But these same editorials describe Rudd’s stance as ‘bold’ and ‘brave’ and ‘risky’, especially in not matching the education fees rebate. They point out that Howard is cleverly targeting his bigger spending on sensitive seats whereas Rudd’s lower promises are “general”.
In short, it is far from clear how the key electorates will respond to the two campaign speeches.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 9:10 am | PermalinkIf Howard wins this elections on the back of the spending he has done it will only confirm the hip pocket nerve theory.
We can get some confort that inflation will go up and so interest rates and the Coalition will get all the opprobrium.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 10:34 am | PermalinkKey electorates could be showing signs of being seduced Fred. Maitland is a swinging seat and a Newcastle Herald poll on Monday of 300 voters showed the sitting Lib, Bob Baldwin, well ahead in the 60′s to the ALP 33%. A lot of Green preferences needed or Mr Arnesan will be back driving ambulances.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 10:44 am | PermalinkOops that should be Baldwin at 46.3 percent which is about where he was at a similar time in the 2004 campaign.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 11:13 am | PermalinkRe 2 – Nico, I have the same feeling. I’m quite nervous about election day, regardless of what the polls say. There could be enough voters who’ll go for the immediacy of bucks in their pockets and stuff society at large. Howard is a very clever parasite who’s spread far and wide.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 11:23 am | PermalinkAnd the seat is actually called Paterson, centred on Maitland which is the name of the State seat.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 11:54 am | PermalinkPablo, is their an internet link to the poll? I’ll post it on poll bludger.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 12:08 pm | PermalinkMy dick cheese has more integrity than John Howard, I am at a loss as to why so many people vote for him. Like many lefties I share the same fear that somehow lightning will strike in the same spot this time and he will be re-elected. Lets all pray to the labor gods that it doesnt happen again.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 12:32 pm | PermalinkI deliberately changed channels on the Liberal Party…..sorry… Coalition launch. heard it all before and I’m tired of negativity. Despite Costello’s stand-up routine. I watched every second of the Labor launch and found it to be, as Chris wrote, high politics. Can’t say I appreciated the applause after every sentence and Rudd’s often wooden reading of the strategically placed tele-prompters, but the vision remains sound in my view. Now, can we get there please? I’m sick of election 2007.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 2:05 pm | PermalinkStephen
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 2:38 pm | Permalinktheherald.com.au for Wednesday Nov 14
All the polls are solid, and despite what some have said in the past the polls are a damn fine indicator of what will happen in 9 days time. Unless something totally crayyyzzeey happens, this election is entirely in the bag for Labor. Given the insipid nature of the election thus far, any shocks would have to be exogenous. And the Madrid train bombings were bad for the conservatives.
You can relax, Christopher. Now we can all start preparing to whinge about a new mob.
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 5:22 pm | PermalinkThanks Pablo, I noticed the poll had 21% non-major party, which seems a bit excessive. Apparently the paper claimed the poll had a 0.1% margin of error (yeah right)
Posted on 15-Nov-07 at 7:32 pm | PermalinkYesterday’s devastating report from the Audit Office seemed to be welcome by many journalists, as though to speak for them on something which was troublesome but beyond their means to expound. The report’s significance falls into the ‘of course’ basket for the public but it was the journo’s attitude on it which is of interest. A hint of jackals gathering about a corpse in it.
Today’s press at least in Fairfax has Howard done.
What is the final turning point, one way or another? What can Howard do? Nothing ‘postiive’ from LNP can do it, that’s all been released, it can only be one thing: something devastating about Rudd, released days out, and get a nudge from the shock coverage before Rudd gets a chance to settle and bring it back.
But it looks more like we could turn the other way: the weekend’s papers go into reflective mode brought on by confidence Howard’s lost. My guess is the line of Rudd’s electoral cleverness will get a run, obviously, but a long way from the real story at the moment: how Howard managed to set up his own defeat.
If that sort of thing is where we have arrived, one week out, without the event above happening I think it will set the tone for the final week, and that will shift the laterly votes off LNP, because that story brings home the failure message and the pointed things Howard’s done wrong.
The thing to look for now is the gathering confidence one-by-one from journo’s as they tell the Howard-failure story. Grattan blew the starting whistle on that today. A few more journo’s gathering on it, notwithstanding something weird in the marginals, and we’re looking at an open try line.
Posted on 16-Nov-07 at 5:28 am | PermalinkI see that Tone Abbott is out and about again, breaking the tension by giving everyone a few good laughs. I reckon it’s still an open question as to whether he’ll punch someone out before Saturday.
Posted on 16-Nov-07 at 9:37 am | PermalinkI can see that. Even hear the whacks. A simple question asked at the Bowlo, nice and fair. Then, Marge holds out the plate of brownies again: “I told you I didn’t want any more,” he snaps. Another fair question, and it’s ON. Whack! Whack! Whack!. Open handed punches to the side of the head, about the temple. People are stunned. Smiling it off, Mr Abbott takes a handkerchief to where he’d hit himself, and awaits the headlines. “I showed restraint and control”.
Posted on 16-Nov-07 at 9:58 am | PermalinkIndulging in a few extra thoughts, buggered, few things, got me etc. What was the Coalition’s actual message? I heard noise, but didn’t get anything central, strong, decisive.
What does “Go for Growth” mean? Every time I see it under or behind Howard the word “Go” comes to mind first. Who thought of that? Taken on the whole, it tells an equally cogent message to go elsewhere for growth. And of course, growth of what? Interest rates? It’s a shocker of a slogan. It means everything to the Libs – they know what it means – but bugger all to the punter, who isn’t given anything (else) by which to bind it to the Coalition’s stand. The “growth” message didn’t come through anywhere else in what the Coalition did. Madness.
What about the TV ads? The Unions? What do the young know about Unions? People of up to 35 years of age (at a guess, more or less) are entirely excluded from this fear. Those over that age, who can recall union upset, have had a war and much more besides placed between them and their memories of union upset. The Coalitions 11 years of governing has taken Australia into a new realm, with other more relevent fears, wherein our emotional responses reside. Trying to leap frog over those things to grab a bucket of fear from the distant past makes the Coalition look frightened themselves, more than anything. And out of touch, and old, tired. And to end the ad with the phrase “stuff up” dumps the whole concept anyway, by making the LNP appear as grubby as those they’re criticising. There were far more sophisticated, subtle fears to be had.
On Rudd, they’ve been spooked. I’ll bet they had a lot more potent stuff to try on him but were spooked by the public reaction to the early shots at him. In fact, I can’t recall right now what the accusations against Rudd are in the ads, only the “Don’t Risk Rudd” thing with the R dangling. Sheesh, that’s powerful and modern.
We may see it yet. Rudd was vulnerable in so many ways, but the case hasn’t been made and I doubt they can do so now with the time to go. Rudd’s background of committee, diplomat, administration, never been a minister, all these things can be made to show him as a “showtime” kind of “pony boy” who is a talker and nothing more. Pick up on the blonde hair and ready smile, easy manner, and turn it into the fly by night have-a-chat. Stand that against the very real fears people have out there in the suburbs and you’re making several strong cases – who is he, can he be trusted, it doesn’t look like it, we’re not pretty but we’re strong, stay with us. LNP haven’t (yet?) drawn on those truths – which are needed to make the case – relying, instead, on the sloppy simple use of trying to do it by imagined accusation alone.
Where was the team? What the fuck was that, by Howard? One of the many weak attempts at a central message, the team thing, should have been paraded. Where was the solidarity – the big guys in the context of their strong achievements? Again, hollow words – trying to make a case with words but not showing it. (“Show don’t tell” – central to any successful story being told).
Water? What happened to that? Rated utmost of what concerns voters, and not a word from the incumbents. Yes, it fell in a hole, but surely something could have been made of this uppermost issue.
It’s been a cobbled, incohesive, rambling deflating campaign so far by the LNP.
One week to go, of course, dont want to jump ahead. Instead, bring on the shark.
Posted on 16-Nov-07 at 1:17 pm | PermalinkI still laugh when I remember Bill Leak’s first cartoon: “Go for the Growth”, under a drawing of Howard growing out of Costello’s back.
On KR, here is where the television may come in, for a vast audience has long got to feel as though they know the guy through the most powerful medium ever known. To the extent that this is true, the attempts to spook folks will always backfire, as the attackers are more spooky (i.e. not as well known). This is a factor to be reckoned, should the promised line be crossed.
I still see journos regularly falling over trying to frame KR in simple terms. The misapprehension here is that it is imagined that he has a characteristic vernacular (“Fork in the road”, “Why do I say that?”, “My challenge to Mr Howard is …”). everytime they think they have a handle, he switches the dialogue, and then they write about how he has switched the dialogue. I always remember how, with KR, you first do the hard work, and then you sit back at arm’s length to work out the political gloss, including ways in which the direction can be effectively communicated. A congenital word-thief, the formulations chosen are not a reflection of his personality, but what works to convey the meaning; for his personality is attuned to dialects in general, not any particular rhetorics.
Posted on 16-Nov-07 at 4:46 pm | Permalink“Go for the Growth” – bloody funny.
Howard’s inherent presidential message to all Australians this time around: “I am The Growth”.
This rings true:
.
This quote strikes hard at the idea that Rudd is ‘unknown’, and hasn’t been taken up by MSM as far as I can see. What the quote refers to is the ‘feel’ the public has, which is more potent than an intellectualisation of who or what Rudd is or isn’t. I think I get the point. People across the nation cry when a fictional character in television shows die, while knowing (intellectually) the person is only imaginary. In fact, every successful television show has at its core that same effect, and others strive for it – to reach out to the viewer, grab them, create an avenue of active engagement, and then disintegrate the real-life barriers which build that avenue. Maybe that’s poorly said, yet we all know the effect: the imaginary becomes real and is experienced ongoing as real. Which is an incredible thing given there is massive flood of real-life factors hitting upon that experience, to say “this is not real”, all disregarded.
We feel it as real. All the talk and the Coalition’s attempt to depict Rudd as unknown fail in this very thing.
Furthermore, for the Coalition to say to the public “You don’t know this person” is an affront to them, to their feelings, and to their ‘rationale’.
By historical political rights we should not as a nation be considering Rudd at all – or certainly the Coalition thinks that. What a fascinating error they’ve made, in how to deal with it.
Posted on 17-Nov-07 at 10:11 am | PermalinkYes, it’s possible to think that the LNP has been a victim of its own rhetoric here. So intent on dismissing him, on having him dismissed, they actually dismissed themselves from having a close look at what was coming for them, and now, please, it looks too late. Liberals, learning the hard way.
Posted on 17-Nov-07 at 2:50 pm | PermalinkNow, this is what I call a scare campaign.
Posted on 19-Nov-07 at 2:52 pm | PermalinkCaught the latest LNP negative TV ads regarding interest rates – they’re effective. The context might subdue them a little, but I’d like to see the ads being countered. Definitely traction in them.
Posted on 19-Nov-07 at 5:29 pm | PermalinkAgree that. Labor must hit back.
Posted on 20-Nov-07 at 1:16 am | Permalink