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	<title>Comments on: AAAnathematising Debt</title>
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		<title>By: Mark Heydon</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-243322</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Heydon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Feb 2008 06:24:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-243322</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I cant see why youd want to borrow to fund superannuation liabilities. Arent you just shifting from one liability to another (the value of future loan repayments) doing this?
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I totally agree.  If it is so simple to borrow money, invest it at a higher rate and watch the money roll in, why don&#039;t we take this to the logical (but absurd) conclusion (i.e. borrow a few more $trillion) and then we can all sit back with our feet up.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I cant see why youd want to borrow to fund superannuation liabilities. Arent you just shifting from one liability to another (the value of future loan repayments) doing this?
</p></blockquote>
<p>I totally agree.  If it is so simple to borrow money, invest it at a higher rate and watch the money roll in, why don&#8217;t we take this to the logical (but absurd) conclusion (i.e. borrow a few more $trillion) and then we can all sit back with our feet up.</p>
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		<title>By: Club Troppo &#187; Missing Link Daily</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-243182</link>
		<dc:creator>Club Troppo &#187; Missing Link Daily</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 22:40:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-243182</guid>
		<description>[...] Nicholas Gruen explains why, whatever other reasons there might be for selling NSW&#8217;s power utilities, it&#8217;s bad economic policy to chase AAA ratings. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Nicholas Gruen explains why, whatever other reasons there might be for selling NSW&#8217;s power utilities, it&#8217;s bad economic policy to chase AAA ratings. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-243145</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 20:57:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-243145</guid>
		<description>The difference I perceive is not in a market - but in the utility of having a significant market share held by (or at least open to) private competitors. Which in practice is often only possible by scrapping (or, to the same effect, selling) the existing State operators.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The difference I perceive is not in a market &#8211; but in the utility of having a significant market share held by (or at least open to) private competitors. Which in practice is often only possible by scrapping (or, to the same effect, selling) the existing State operators.</p>
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		<title>By: conrad</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242974</link>
		<dc:creator>conrad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 10:55:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242974</guid>
		<description>&quot;you can at least advocate developing the institutions to deal with it&quot;

Its not clear to me what institutions could deal with it since it seems to me that the basic problem is a cultural one (I&#039;d be happy to read suggestions) -- Australians don&#039;t appear to care much for political corruption in the form of pork baralleling (or perhaps politics in general for that matter -- I imagine if voting wasn&#039;t compulsary, we would get turnouts like the rest of the Anglosphere to prove this). From casual observation, if Iemma can stay in power and Bracks can dredge the bay and build a slow train to Ballarat, I really wonder what these guys would have to do for people to care.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;you can at least advocate developing the institutions to deal with it&#8221;</p>
<p>Its not clear to me what institutions could deal with it since it seems to me that the basic problem is a cultural one (I&#8217;d be happy to read suggestions) &#8212; Australians don&#8217;t appear to care much for political corruption in the form of pork baralleling (or perhaps politics in general for that matter &#8212; I imagine if voting wasn&#8217;t compulsary, we would get turnouts like the rest of the Anglosphere to prove this). From casual observation, if Iemma can stay in power and Bracks can dredge the bay and build a slow train to Ballarat, I really wonder what these guys would have to do for people to care.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242935</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 08:24:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242935</guid>
		<description>JQ&#039;s economics is better than Krugman&#039;s.  Not because he&#039;s cleverer, but because it&#039;s more use, more directly related to policy problems and more directly applicable.  Krugman&#039;s new trade theory was done because it could be - not because it looked like turning up anything much that was useful to policy makers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JQ&#8217;s economics is better than Krugman&#8217;s.  Not because he&#8217;s cleverer, but because it&#8217;s more use, more directly related to policy problems and more directly applicable.  Krugman&#8217;s new trade theory was done because it could be &#8211; not because it looked like turning up anything much that was useful to policy makers.</p>
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		<title>By: SJ</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242926</link>
		<dc:creator>SJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 08:08:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242926</guid>
		<description>So what&#039;s your position on John Q vis-a-vis the Nobel? 

(No need to answer.) :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So what&#8217;s your position on John Q vis-a-vis the Nobel? </p>
<p>(No need to answer.) :)</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242873</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 07:06:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242873</guid>
		<description>Actually it was the SMH that referred to JQ as that.  I think I referred to him as economist Prof JQ. Krugman is both an economist and an economic journalist. He&#039;s a very good economist but not one who is (IMO) in the Nobel category - though they&#039;ll probably give him one sometime.  As an economic journalist however, I&#039;m in awe of his ability to pump stuff of great clarity and insight out - 2 per week - on top of lecturing, writing textbooks and other books.  It&#039;s incredible!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually it was the SMH that referred to JQ as that.  I think I referred to him as economist Prof JQ. Krugman is both an economist and an economic journalist. He&#8217;s a very good economist but not one who is (IMO) in the Nobel category &#8211; though they&#8217;ll probably give him one sometime.  As an economic journalist however, I&#8217;m in awe of his ability to pump stuff of great clarity and insight out &#8211; 2 per week &#8211; on top of lecturing, writing textbooks and other books.  It&#8217;s incredible!</p>
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		<title>By: SJ</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242860</link>
		<dc:creator>SJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 06:36:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242860</guid>
		<description>A well written piece, Nick. 

I note that you describe John Q as a &quot;research economist and commentator&quot;, rather than an &quot;economic journalist&quot;, as you once referred to Paul Krugman. ;)

Bob Walker of U Sydney has made a similar point (about debt, not about John Q) in his &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nsw.gov.au/energy/docs/submissions/32_-_Prof_B_Walker_and_Ms_B_Walker.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;submission&lt;/a&gt;,  noting further that the net government debt in Oz is negative, and it&#039;s kinda silly to be so preoccupied with government debt levels after it&#039;s essentially all been paid off.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A well written piece, Nick. </p>
<p>I note that you describe John Q as a &#8220;research economist and commentator&#8221;, rather than an &#8220;economic journalist&#8221;, as you once referred to Paul Krugman. ;)</p>
<p>Bob Walker of U Sydney has made a similar point (about debt, not about John Q) in his <a href="http://www.nsw.gov.au/energy/docs/submissions/32_-_Prof_B_Walker_and_Ms_B_Walker.pdf">submission</a>,  noting further that the net government debt in Oz is negative, and it&#8217;s kinda silly to be so preoccupied with government debt levels after it&#8217;s essentially all been paid off.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242856</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 06:22:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242856</guid>
		<description>DD - you&#039;re second para is fair enough.  But the reason you&#039;d fully fund super - from debt - is because it leaves your balance sheet better off by the difference between the return on the super portfolio and the cost of the debt including some margin for risk. It&#039;s quite a sum.  But after you&#039;ve fully funded your super portfolio I&#039;d still be in favour of borrowing to invest as I argued in one of the pieces I linked to. The basic point is that where the state has excessive capacity to bear risk, not bearing it is a wasted asset. Of course in my model I&#039;d create independent institutions who&#039;s job would be to ensure that while the state took on more risk if the returns were there one still ended up with a prudent and strong balance sheet with which the state can bear its many burdens of risk bearer of last resort. 

Patrick, I&#039;m a little taken aback that you think you differ with me on the proposition that a market is a good idea - in other words that we shouldn&#039;t pursue the North Korean model.  Am I missing something?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DD &#8211; you&#8217;re second para is fair enough.  But the reason you&#8217;d fully fund super &#8211; from debt &#8211; is because it leaves your balance sheet better off by the difference between the return on the super portfolio and the cost of the debt including some margin for risk. It&#8217;s quite a sum.  But after you&#8217;ve fully funded your super portfolio I&#8217;d still be in favour of borrowing to invest as I argued in one of the pieces I linked to. The basic point is that where the state has excessive capacity to bear risk, not bearing it is a wasted asset. Of course in my model I&#8217;d create independent institutions who&#8217;s job would be to ensure that while the state took on more risk if the returns were there one still ended up with a prudent and strong balance sheet with which the state can bear its many burdens of risk bearer of last resort. </p>
<p>Patrick, I&#8217;m a little taken aback that you think you differ with me on the proposition that a market is a good idea &#8211; in other words that we shouldn&#8217;t pursue the North Korean model.  Am I missing something?</p>
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		<title>By: derrida derider</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242849</link>
		<dc:creator>derrida derider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 05:56:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242849</guid>
		<description>I agreed with all you say, Nic, except that I can&#039;t see why you&#039;d want to borrow to fund superannuation liabilities. Aren&#039;t you just shifting from one liability to another (the value of future loan repayments) doing this?

And in any case, as I keep saying, if you think the present value of future superannuation liabilities should figure on your balance sheet then surely the present value of future tax revenues - the means by which they were always intended to be funded - should also be on the balance sheet.  To put one on without the other gives a most misleading picture of your net asset position.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agreed with all you say, Nic, except that I can&#8217;t see why you&#8217;d want to borrow to fund superannuation liabilities. Aren&#8217;t you just shifting from one liability to another (the value of future loan repayments) doing this?</p>
<p>And in any case, as I keep saying, if you think the present value of future superannuation liabilities should figure on your balance sheet then surely the present value of future tax revenues &#8211; the means by which they were always intended to be funded &#8211; should also be on the balance sheet.  To put one on without the other gives a most misleading picture of your net asset position.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242808</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2008 03:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242808</guid>
		<description>I agree with you entirely on this (which is your main point):

&lt;blockquote&gt;But whether or not theres a legitimate case to privatise the electricity industry on productivity grounds, if NSW were being run like a prudent business, it would use the strength of its balance sheet to expand its investment in assets which generate higher returns than the interest cost of funds it borrows.

And as would occur in the private sector, the decision about what credit rating to target would emerge from a proper financial analysis taking into account the costs and benefits of securing AAA rather than populist political posturing.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I think it does make sense for governments to borrow, or stop. Ie if you don&#039;t own any roads (or whatever else) fair enough you don&#039;t need to borrow - the private sector owners will. But if you do, then presumably you expect a sufficient return on them to justify borrowing to sustain them.

Where we may differ is 

 - I believe that governments should also be ready to abandon any (ie) roads that it doesn&#039;t expect a sufficient ROI on to justify borrowing to maintain, and
 - that I believe in at least some privately owned assets per se as I believe that a competitive market is very very very likely to be more efficient and innovative than a purely state-owned market in any medium or long run.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with you entirely on this (which is your main point):</p>
<blockquote><p>But whether or not theres a legitimate case to privatise the electricity industry on productivity grounds, if NSW were being run like a prudent business, it would use the strength of its balance sheet to expand its investment in assets which generate higher returns than the interest cost of funds it borrows.</p>
<p>And as would occur in the private sector, the decision about what credit rating to target would emerge from a proper financial analysis taking into account the costs and benefits of securing AAA rather than populist political posturing.</p></blockquote>
<p>I think it does make sense for governments to borrow, or stop. Ie if you don&#8217;t own any roads (or whatever else) fair enough you don&#8217;t need to borrow &#8211; the private sector owners will. But if you do, then presumably you expect a sufficient return on them to justify borrowing to sustain them.</p>
<p>Where we may differ is </p>
<p> &#8211; I believe that governments should also be ready to abandon any (ie) roads that it doesn&#8217;t expect a sufficient ROI on to justify borrowing to maintain, and<br />
 &#8211; that I believe in at least some privately owned assets per se as I believe that a competitive market is very very very likely to be more efficient and innovative than a purely state-owned market in any medium or long run.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242729</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 23:49:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242729</guid>
		<description>AND if that&#039;s your concern, you can at least advocate developing the institutions to deal with it rather than hobble one of the most important economic institutions we have - the government.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>AND if that&#8217;s your concern, you can at least advocate developing the institutions to deal with it rather than hobble one of the most important economic institutions we have &#8211; the government.</p>
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		<title>By: James Farrell</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242712</link>
		<dc:creator>James Farrell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 23:08:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242712</guid>
		<description>Conrad, that argument can easily be turned on its head: if the government understakes the borrowing necessary to fulfil its responsibilties to upgrade infrastructure, it will be harder to justify additional borrowing for arbitrary, politically motivated projects .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Conrad, that argument can easily be turned on its head: if the government understakes the borrowing necessary to fulfil its responsibilties to upgrade infrastructure, it will be harder to justify additional borrowing for arbitrary, politically motivated projects .</p>
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		<title>By: conrad</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242700</link>
		<dc:creator>conrad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 22:50:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242700</guid>
		<description>From a cynical point of view, the good thing about governments not borrowing large amounts of money is that it makes it far harder to find money to waste on pork-barelling investments. Perhaps that&#039;s a good trade-off. We pay more for projects that we need, but we don&#039;t pay for all the projects we don&#039;t (or at least it&#039;s harder to waste money). This is why government debt should not be equated with private company debt. The goal of private companies is generally to make money. The goal of governments is to make people happy in the short term. Borrowing money for the first has different implications to borrowing money for the second.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From a cynical point of view, the good thing about governments not borrowing large amounts of money is that it makes it far harder to find money to waste on pork-barelling investments. Perhaps that&#8217;s a good trade-off. We pay more for projects that we need, but we don&#8217;t pay for all the projects we don&#8217;t (or at least it&#8217;s harder to waste money). This is why government debt should not be equated with private company debt. The goal of private companies is generally to make money. The goal of governments is to make people happy in the short term. Borrowing money for the first has different implications to borrowing money for the second.</p>
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		<title>By: Jacques Chester</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242593</link>
		<dc:creator>Jacques Chester</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 16:40:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242593</guid>
		<description>And as for AAA ratings -- aren&#039;t they handed out by the same crotch-holders who said subprime mortgages were swell if you just doled them out in big lumps? How they have any credibility left is beyond me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And as for AAA ratings &#8212; aren&#8217;t they handed out by the same crotch-holders who said subprime mortgages were swell if you just doled them out in big lumps? How they have any credibility left is beyond me.</p>
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		<title>By: Jacques Chester</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242592</link>
		<dc:creator>Jacques Chester</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 16:39:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/02/26/4978/#comment-242592</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;As a result we dont regulate ... shopping hours.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

WA doesn&#039;t seem to have received that memo yet. Any chance of sending some cluestick over?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>As a result we dont regulate &#8230; shopping hours.</p></blockquote>
<p>WA doesn&#8217;t seem to have received that memo yet. Any chance of sending some cluestick over?</p>
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