I used I am not CL as I thought it was obvious it was me.

When I return to commenting I will have to think up another obvious moniker but I do not have to worry about that for a while and by the time that happens the credit crunch will be over and we can say we were there when the market lost its marbles.

How Norwegian bonds can ever have a default problem is beside me but then I would say the same thing about Aussie bonds.

Let us hope the Fed hurries up and cuts the Federal funds rate to 1%.

P.S.

I actually read this because you commented on it!!!

(Amazingly there’s actually someone that sounds like Homer.)

IANCL is correcting the assertion that Tut isn’t homer and homer isn’t Tut although they sound remarkably similar.

What’s interesting is that Homes could have found his genetic twin right here on Troppo. That’s a first for any blog.

Homer:

Were you thinking that people were confusing you with CL? How?

In other words it wasnt me.

Well this is getting a tadge confusing.

IANCL, please clarify: are you saying in comment #37 that you ARE The Punster Formerly Known As Homer Paxton, but it was NOT you who wrote comments #23, #25, #27 and #29?

Does the FED have a gov. like the BoE? That’s what Gov’s do in the US isn’t it? :-)

Just enjoy the mess and see it as like something Italians would do if they were runnign a financail “empire”. It’s the best crater since 911. Just rubber neck and enjoy as this opera as they don’t come too often.

It has it all except the sex parts.

You can’t do that to us! In fact you have no right to just simply pull up stumps like that and say you’re only coming back in a few months. This isn’t a part time job, Homer. Your blog work-ethics suck.

Heres an interesting take from Ross Sorkin of the NYTimes.

He suggests that it was the Fed that pushed JPM into offering a price as close as possible to zero for political reasons as Washington and the Fed wanted to show Main street that the government wasn’t trying to bail out Wall Street.

What’s even more intriguing is that The Fed announced the establishment of the investment bank facility the following Monday morning, a measure that would have possibly avoided Bear’s “bankruptcy”.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/business/25sorkin.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

When I comment I make through a moniker so obvious one doesn’t need to think.

I am on hibernation however this subject interests me.

When I comment Ken you will notice I use my own e-mail address.

At present I hate to admit it but politics bores me silly.

Apart from comment on Cl’s blog welcoming back and at Saint’s blog I ain’t commenting.

In other words it wasn’t me.

and it won’t be me for a fair few months.

Occams Phaser (set to pun)

Yes indeed.
Please Homer: don’t multiply your own entities beyond necessity.

or someone trying very hard indeed to appear to be Homer. As its rather difficult to rationalise the motivation for the latter, Occams Phaser (set to pun) suggests it is, in fact, Homerkles.

Exactly right. I couldn’t imagine anyone on the web wanting people to think they’re Homer except homer himself. The mere thought runs shivers down my spine so I couldn’t imagine anyone thinking differently.

In any event it really doesn’t matter what moniker he uses as most people figure it’s him soon enough.

However, since Homer is a pseudonym anyway, I guess well just have to wait for a few really lame puns to before we can really tell.

Wot, you mean this one doesn’t count?

My working assumption is that it’s Homer (CL obsession, dopey pseudonym, idiosyncratic approach to punctuation, financial bent, long & wrong credit, awful puns, attempt to encourage JC into “nice” behaviour, fuckhowmanyboxescanItickonthisone, etc.) or someone trying very hard indeed to appear to be Homer. As it’s rather difficult to rationalise the motivation for the latter, Occam’s Phaser (set to “pun”) suggests it is, in fact, Homerkles.

If so, dude, please go back to “Homer Paxton”. Your latest nom de blog is truly ridiculous. By which I mean more than usually so.

As much as I think Homer deserves a decent throttle over the ears at times, i can honestly say that Hoems doesn’t have a racist or nasty bone in his body. I have never heard him utter any racist comment or said things to hurt or incite people that way.

Homer, if it is Homer would suggest ” learn English” to the queen.

Furthermore Jason knows homer and I wouldn’t think for a moment that jason would have taken it the way you’re suggesting.

Homer can say silly things but he would never ever utter a racist comment.
Homer’s just Homer. And by the way Homer really does exist. Shocked me too.

Hmmm, “I am not CL”. Is that your carbon slave Homer or Metro?

Why don’t you write more often like this. you can be quite an ageeable chap when you wish to be

I also think that people aren’t paying enough attention to the effect the fed rate cuts have had on US financials. Take Citigroup for instance. I would assume that C can maintain its asset side locked in at relatively high interest rate levels for a good while.

These Fed rate cuts have possibly added $20-30 billion in spread earnings for a while longer. People seem to ignore the effect the rate cuts have had on bank earning potential in the US.

I tend to think the problem of counterparty risk is quite transient.

But it will take time

A lot of great quality bonds are up for grabs at the moment.

I read that piece by the DB guy too.

I think where the rubber meets the road is if PE’s are going to reprice down as a once of thing.

You have to admit though, catching a big falling knife can be a little scary.

The credit markets are a once in a cycle opportunity as Jim Reid from Desustchebank in London has called it. the current spreads in world corporate bond markets read US imply that over 19% of five year investment grade bonds will default. The highest rate we have seen thus far is 2.4% in 1990/1 when companies in the US were overloaded with debt. They are at the complete opposite end of the spectrum at present.

Moreover once the market wakes up and matures they will plow money into solid investment grade bonds and even less.

furthermore Banks are at the we only want to loan to people/companies that don’t need loans’ at present. Just as in Australia in 1990/1 Banks will soon realise with a steep yield curve that it is only by lending they improve their books and corporate America will need loans.

Whilst the US bond markets have priced in a recession worse than 1974/5 the equity market hasn’t and I tend to think they are right. The transmission mechanisms aren’t there for a severe recession. Wages are okay, profitability is at a record as a % of GDP and so is debt servicing capability.

I would have thought a lot of CEOs would have been giving guidance to the market via lower earnings if the US was already in a recession.

I tend to think the recession wil be shallow but lengthy.

However, this cycle is unlike anything we have seen in the last few decades and thus the action to-date might not be enough

Don’t you think this time around is a little similar to the early 90′s rout? That time it was commercial real estate that clobbered the banks along with some residential real estate. The S&L problem was about $250 bill. The last estimate I read was that the current mess is around slightly north of $500 bill. The economy was about $5 trill then and about $13.5 trill now. In the early 90s (or late 80s) Drexel turned off the lights and C was looking very shaky.

In fact C has been in the vortex of every major financial problem for the past 30 years. It was also heavily exposed to sovereign debt in the very early 80′s.