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	<title>Comments on: The growing risk of recession: what can be done to prevent it?</title>
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	<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/</link>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267502</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 21:46:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267502</guid>
		<description>I thought we were talking about the Greens party?  It isn&#039;t actually run by wild-eyed radical university students, last time I checked (my local candidate is actually a fairly conservative business owner).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought we were talking about the Greens party?  It isn&#8217;t actually run by wild-eyed radical university students, last time I checked (my local candidate is actually a fairly conservative business owner).</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267495</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 20:53:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267495</guid>
		<description>Not my strawman, NPOV, I wish it was. I still have classes on campus for my Masters - the stupid left hasn&#039;t gotten any less so since I was at uni, at least.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not my strawman, NPOV, I wish it was. I still have classes on campus for my Masters &#8211; the stupid left hasn&#8217;t gotten any less so since I was at uni, at least.</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267327</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 10:12:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267327</guid>
		<description>Sounds more like your strawman of a green/socialist fantasy to me.

No, humans, society or what-have-you is not rooted, evil, or unjust - but nearly all humans are capable of evil and unjust behaviour, especially when driven by greed, and especially, it seems, when part of a group of people whose raison d&#039;etre is essentially to increase profits.

FWIW, my quasi-&quot;socialist&quot; utopia still has corporations, but corporations who are driven purely by the desire to produce better goods and services, and where all stakeholders in a corporation get some say over the distribution of profits.
Whether such a utopia is possible I have no idea, but I doubt I&#039;ll see it in my lifetime.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sounds more like your strawman of a green/socialist fantasy to me.</p>
<p>No, humans, society or what-have-you is not rooted, evil, or unjust &#8211; but nearly all humans are capable of evil and unjust behaviour, especially when driven by greed, and especially, it seems, when part of a group of people whose raison d&#8217;etre is essentially to increase profits.</p>
<p>FWIW, my quasi-&#8221;socialist&#8221; utopia still has corporations, but corporations who are driven purely by the desire to produce better goods and services, and where all stakeholders in a corporation get some say over the distribution of profits.<br />
Whether such a utopia is possible I have no idea, but I doubt I&#8217;ll see it in my lifetime.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267294</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 09:21:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267294</guid>
		<description>Not in green/socialist fantasy, no. There, corporations are something separate from groups of people. As something nebulous, indeed wholly artificial, they make great bogeymen - &lt;em&gt;corporations &lt;/em&gt;are reaping super-profits by exploiting labor and raping gaia, blah blah blah. 

My only point is that corporations are just completely  besides the point, and the second someone (eg Naomi Klein) starts blathering on about the evil deeds of corporations you can be fairly sure that they are a little over-cooked.

If you want to say that humans, society or what-have-you is rooted, evil, unjust or what-have-you, fine, just come out and say it. But quit pretending that corporations have anything to do with it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not in green/socialist fantasy, no. There, corporations are something separate from groups of people. As something nebulous, indeed wholly artificial, they make great bogeymen &#8211; <em>corporations </em>are reaping super-profits by exploiting labor and raping gaia, blah blah blah. </p>
<p>My only point is that corporations are just completely  besides the point, and the second someone (eg Naomi Klein) starts blathering on about the evil deeds of corporations you can be fairly sure that they are a little over-cooked.</p>
<p>If you want to say that humans, society or what-have-you is rooted, evil, unjust or what-have-you, fine, just come out and say it. But quit pretending that corporations have anything to do with it.</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267271</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 08:01:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267271</guid>
		<description>Er, corporations = groups of people who are primarily driven by a motive for increased profits, no?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Er, corporations = groups of people who are primarily driven by a motive for increased profits, no?</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267266</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 07:38:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267266</guid>
		<description>I completely fail to see the point of the word corporations in your comment. What does corporations do that &#039;groups&#039; would not do?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I completely fail to see the point of the word corporations in your comment. What does corporations do that &#8216;groups&#8217; would not do?</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267256</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 06:36:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267256</guid>
		<description>I think we can reasonably postulate that groups of people who are primarily driven by a motive for increased profits do behave differently to groups of people who aren&#039;t.  And government is really just an indirect type of corporation - they are as much motivated to assist corporations in increasing their profits as they in preventing them from causing excessive environmental damage / exploiting labour etc. etc.

And saying &quot;groups of people are still people&quot; is a bit like saying &quot;groups of atoms are still atoms&quot;, yet groups of atoms have properties like colour, smell, viscosity, hardness etc. etc. that don&#039;t apply to individual atoms.
Likewise, there are various properties that matter when dealing with corporations that aren&#039;t meaningful when dealing with individuals.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think we can reasonably postulate that groups of people who are primarily driven by a motive for increased profits do behave differently to groups of people who aren&#8217;t.  And government is really just an indirect type of corporation &#8211; they are as much motivated to assist corporations in increasing their profits as they in preventing them from causing excessive environmental damage / exploiting labour etc. etc.</p>
<p>And saying &#8220;groups of people are still people&#8221; is a bit like saying &#8220;groups of atoms are still atoms&#8221;, yet groups of atoms have properties like colour, smell, viscosity, hardness etc. etc. that don&#8217;t apply to individual atoms.<br />
Likewise, there are various properties that matter when dealing with corporations that aren&#8217;t meaningful when dealing with individuals.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267243</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 05:17:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267243</guid>
		<description>NPOV, if there is any link between #24 and corporations it escapes me. Groups of people are still people - green corporation phobia is simply ludicrous unless you can reasonably postulate that things would have been any different with &#039;just&#039; groups of people - your comment about governments suggests that you are well aware that this is not the case!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NPOV, if there is any link between #24 and corporations it escapes me. Groups of people are still people &#8211; green corporation phobia is simply ludicrous unless you can reasonably postulate that things would have been any different with &#8216;just&#8217; groups of people &#8211; your comment about governments suggests that you are well aware that this is not the case!!</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267235</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 04:36:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267235</guid>
		<description>(And BTW, I don&#039;t buy the line &quot;there are only people&quot;.  Group behaviour is quite often different to individual behaviour.  The fact remains that corporations have been responsible for significant environmental damage and exploitation of labour through the centuries - mind you, governments have arguably been worse).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(And BTW, I don&#8217;t buy the line &#8220;there are only people&#8221;.  Group behaviour is quite often different to individual behaviour.  The fact remains that corporations have been responsible for significant environmental damage and exploitation of labour through the centuries &#8211; mind you, governments have arguably been worse).</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267234</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 04:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267234</guid>
		<description>There are already many taxpayers at EMTRs of nearly 80%.  60% was the EMTR, not the income tax rate.  If we can get the maximum EMTR down to 50% or less, great, but either way, then I&#039;d want it applying to those of us earning the most.  And, yes, the cut-off could perhaps better be raised as high as 200K.

As far as equity being concerned with opportunities vs outcomes: yes, equality of opportunity is the primary concern, but I also happen to believe that there are plenty of people who work very hard, and contribute an enormous amount to society at relatively low rates of renumeration, and others that enjoy very comfortable lifestyles largely due to good fortune rather than much in the way of genuine exertion.  (Needless to say, I don&#039;t consider myself a member of the former group.)
On that basis for starters, I think there is a substantial case for redistribution that goes beyond simply ensuring that there is a good safety net for those at the bottom of the heap.  There are other reasons I&#039;d prefer to be living in society where disposal incomes don&#039;t vary excessively, but ultimately as I said, it is a personal preference - not something I can logically demonstrate to be an objectively &quot;better&quot; outcome.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are already many taxpayers at EMTRs of nearly 80%.  60% was the EMTR, not the income tax rate.  If we can get the maximum EMTR down to 50% or less, great, but either way, then I&#8217;d want it applying to those of us earning the most.  And, yes, the cut-off could perhaps better be raised as high as 200K.</p>
<p>As far as equity being concerned with opportunities vs outcomes: yes, equality of opportunity is the primary concern, but I also happen to believe that there are plenty of people who work very hard, and contribute an enormous amount to society at relatively low rates of renumeration, and others that enjoy very comfortable lifestyles largely due to good fortune rather than much in the way of genuine exertion.  (Needless to say, I don&#8217;t consider myself a member of the former group.)<br />
On that basis for starters, I think there is a substantial case for redistribution that goes beyond simply ensuring that there is a good safety net for those at the bottom of the heap.  There are other reasons I&#8217;d prefer to be living in society where disposal incomes don&#8217;t vary excessively, but ultimately as I said, it is a personal preference &#8211; not something I can logically demonstrate to be an objectively &#8220;better&#8221; outcome.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267226</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 03:19:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267226</guid>
		<description>NPOV, that is really what the Allens proposal achieved with a phased-out low income tax offset. So you have a straight-line increase in effective rate from 15 per cent to 30 per cent from $21k to $125k. It is more &#039;elegant&#039; and avoids &#039;steps&#039;, in particular. Also, EMTRs 

Also, $100k is frighteningly little these days. I assume you would have some sort of offsetting welfare payments for eg families, but it is an extremely low threshold. I know that people like you don&#039;t believe that people like me exist, but I would move overseas if Australia had that kind of taxation. That implies a cost to overall prosperity - not to mention the cost of having so much greater a proportion of GDP spent, probably badly, by the government - expenditure which contains very little price information, which is the most valuable information in the market.

Also, why does your conception of equity require highly progressive taxation? I don&#039;t need an answer because as you say the issues have been canvassed but I just want to point out that it is easy to think that equity should be concerned with opportunities and not outcomes.

The corporations thing is nonsense - I cited a common green party belief which apparently you partially subscribe to. But corporations are legal fictions. Really there are only people.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NPOV, that is really what the Allens proposal achieved with a phased-out low income tax offset. So you have a straight-line increase in effective rate from 15 per cent to 30 per cent from $21k to $125k. It is more &#8216;elegant&#8217; and avoids &#8216;steps&#8217;, in particular. Also, EMTRs </p>
<p>Also, $100k is frighteningly little these days. I assume you would have some sort of offsetting welfare payments for eg families, but it is an extremely low threshold. I know that people like you don&#8217;t believe that people like me exist, but I would move overseas if Australia had that kind of taxation. That implies a cost to overall prosperity &#8211; not to mention the cost of having so much greater a proportion of GDP spent, probably badly, by the government &#8211; expenditure which contains very little price information, which is the most valuable information in the market.</p>
<p>Also, why does your conception of equity require highly progressive taxation? I don&#8217;t need an answer because as you say the issues have been canvassed but I just want to point out that it is easy to think that equity should be concerned with opportunities and not outcomes.</p>
<p>The corporations thing is nonsense &#8211; I cited a common green party belief which apparently you partially subscribe to. But corporations are legal fictions. Really there are only people.</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267197</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 00:55:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267197</guid>
		<description>(BTW, the other thing I&#039;d like to see an economist explain is why it&#039;s better to have fewer rather than more tax brackets.  It seems to me that the problem of high EMTRs is relatively easily solved, without making anybody significantly, worse off, by having between 6 and 8 different tax brackets, based on increasing EMTRs - starting at 25% for those earning under $10K, and gradually increasing to 60% for those over $100000.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(BTW, the other thing I&#8217;d like to see an economist explain is why it&#8217;s better to have fewer rather than more tax brackets.  It seems to me that the problem of high EMTRs is relatively easily solved, without making anybody significantly, worse off, by having between 6 and 8 different tax brackets, based on increasing EMTRs &#8211; starting at 25% for those earning under $10K, and gradually increasing to 60% for those over $100000.)</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267195</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 00:49:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267195</guid>
		<description>Patrick, no, the paper doesn&#039;t recommend it, but it backs up other papers I&#039;ve read indicating that high top personal income tax rates don&#039;t have a significant depressive effect.  I&#039;d like to see a more progressive income tax system for the sake of equity.  The reasons I&#039;d like to see more equity we&#039;ve discussed here before, but ultimately it comes down to a personal preference to the sort of country I&#039;d like to live in.  Especially if it can be done with no cost in overall prosperity.

As for corporations being the evil slaughteres of mother nature and oppressors of labour, sure, a few are, but those problems are addressed by policy that targets that behaviour, not a blanket tax that punishes even the most benign corporations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Patrick, no, the paper doesn&#8217;t recommend it, but it backs up other papers I&#8217;ve read indicating that high top personal income tax rates don&#8217;t have a significant depressive effect.  I&#8217;d like to see a more progressive income tax system for the sake of equity.  The reasons I&#8217;d like to see more equity we&#8217;ve discussed here before, but ultimately it comes down to a personal preference to the sort of country I&#8217;d like to live in.  Especially if it can be done with no cost in overall prosperity.</p>
<p>As for corporations being the evil slaughteres of mother nature and oppressors of labour, sure, a few are, but those problems are addressed by policy that targets that behaviour, not a blanket tax that punishes even the most benign corporations.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267188</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 23:54:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267188</guid>
		<description>NPOV, Corporations are evil slaughterers of mother nature and oppressors of labour. I thought you liked the Greens - how did the fundamental obviousness of corporate evil escape you?

Also, I didn&#039;t see anything in the paper to suggest raising personal taxes - but maybe I read too quickly (I did skim a bit). Obviously, of course, there would be an implicit raise in tax rates on dividend income, but I don&#039;t think that&#039;s what you meant.

Do you really think the Government needs more tax money? Remember that it could borrow a lazy $10bn odd with virtually no impact whatsoever, and could fairly cheaply borrow up to about $100bn (IIRC) - that is a big number.

I will try and grab a copy of that Allens paper on harmonisation, too, or chat to one of them about it -  I wonder how they allowed for private business structuring.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NPOV, Corporations are evil slaughterers of mother nature and oppressors of labour. I thought you liked the Greens &#8211; how did the fundamental obviousness of corporate evil escape you?</p>
<p>Also, I didn&#8217;t see anything in the paper to suggest raising personal taxes &#8211; but maybe I read too quickly (I did skim a bit). Obviously, of course, there would be an implicit raise in tax rates on dividend income, but I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s what you meant.</p>
<p>Do you really think the Government needs more tax money? Remember that it could borrow a lazy $10bn odd with virtually no impact whatsoever, and could fairly cheaply borrow up to about $100bn (IIRC) &#8211; that is a big number.</p>
<p>I will try and grab a copy of that Allens paper on harmonisation, too, or chat to one of them about it &#8211;  I wonder how they allowed for private business structuring.</p>
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		<title>By: NPOV</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267186</link>
		<dc:creator>NPOV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 23:42:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267186</guid>
		<description>Nick, thanks for that paper - it re-inforces my increasing suspicion that Australia should be looking towards significantly lowering the corporate tax rate, but increasing the progressivity of income taxes (even if that means a return to 50%+ rates on the top income brackets).
Unfortunately it&#039;s hard to think of any of the current political parties considering such a proposal.  The Greens want to increase corporate tax rates to 33% - I would like to know their rationale for such a proposal, and can&#039;t possibly see how it will benefit anyone.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick, thanks for that paper &#8211; it re-inforces my increasing suspicion that Australia should be looking towards significantly lowering the corporate tax rate, but increasing the progressivity of income taxes (even if that means a return to 50%+ rates on the top income brackets).<br />
Unfortunately it&#8217;s hard to think of any of the current political parties considering such a proposal.  The Greens want to increase corporate tax rates to 33% &#8211; I would like to know their rationale for such a proposal, and can&#8217;t possibly see how it will benefit anyone.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267176</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 23:02:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267176</guid>
		<description>Read the paper JC.  Happy to answer any questions after you have.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Read the paper JC.  Happy to answer any questions after you have.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267072</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:59:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267072</guid>
		<description>I missed your comment about lowering the tax rate, nic. Sorry.
As a rough rule of thumb most people value tax credit. on divs at around 30%. And you&#039;re dropping the tax rate by 30%.

What happens to investor behavior....interesting

It would bid up lower yield high growth stocks. Infrastructure stocks with deferred tax schemes become more attractive while highish yield stocks would get clocked.


So resources stock would basically go through the roof with this as they are historically low dividend payers.

 How about capital returns and buy backs? That would make that sort play much more attractive suppose as it would cut out dividends and allow people to take gains on the Cap gains rate. Wouldn&#039;t the overall amount of dividends fall?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I missed your comment about lowering the tax rate, nic. Sorry.<br />
As a rough rule of thumb most people value tax credit. on divs at around 30%. And you&#8217;re dropping the tax rate by 30%.</p>
<p>What happens to investor behavior&#8230;.interesting</p>
<p>It would bid up lower yield high growth stocks. Infrastructure stocks with deferred tax schemes become more attractive while highish yield stocks would get clocked.</p>
<p>So resources stock would basically go through the roof with this as they are historically low dividend payers.</p>
<p> How about capital returns and buy backs? That would make that sort play much more attractive suppose as it would cut out dividends and allow people to take gains on the Cap gains rate. Wouldn&#8217;t the overall amount of dividends fall?</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267069</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:15:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267069</guid>
		<description>JC, Patrick,

I&#039;m sorry I&#039;ve trodden on your priors.  My argument is not from first principles - other than that principle that says you should minimise costs and maximise gains. 

Of course other things being equal you&#039;d like to eliminate double taxation.  The question is, what do you get for doing so, and can you get something better.  The answer is that dividend imputation is keeping us from something like a 19% company tax rate - and a 19% company tax rate without dividend imputation is a lot better than a 30% tax rate with it. 

These ideas are written up &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.lateraleconomics.com.au/outputs/CEDA%20Tax%20cuts%20to%20compete.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;. (pdf)

And JC that would sent stock prices up, not down - lowering the cost of capital.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JC, Patrick,</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sorry I&#8217;ve trodden on your priors.  My argument is not from first principles &#8211; other than that principle that says you should minimise costs and maximise gains. </p>
<p>Of course other things being equal you&#8217;d like to eliminate double taxation.  The question is, what do you get for doing so, and can you get something better.  The answer is that dividend imputation is keeping us from something like a 19% company tax rate &#8211; and a 19% company tax rate without dividend imputation is a lot better than a 30% tax rate with it. </p>
<p>These ideas are written up <a href="http://www.lateraleconomics.com.au/outputs/CEDA%20Tax%20cuts%20to%20compete.pdf">here</a>. (pdf)</p>
<p>And JC that would sent stock prices up, not down &#8211; lowering the cost of capital.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267068</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:01:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267068</guid>
		<description>Nic:

How do you justify an elimination of imputation? You can&#039;t justify double taxation on any grounds. It would trounce the stock market and would raise the cost of capital as a result of making our current account deficit more expensive to fund.


Eliminating imputation could simply be considered as another tax on capital when you include the cap gains tax.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nic:</p>
<p>How do you justify an elimination of imputation? You can&#8217;t justify double taxation on any grounds. It would trounce the stock market and would raise the cost of capital as a result of making our current account deficit more expensive to fund.</p>
<p>Eliminating imputation could simply be considered as another tax on capital when you include the cap gains tax.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267066</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 14:52:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267066</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Tax food, for goodness sake. Imagine the reductions which could be made available through income tax.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Are you proposing that as an incentive for weight loss, Niall?

----------------------

You got it Ken P. Market economics or speculating about the future makes everyone an economist. There isn&#039;t going to be a recession in oz for the next two years is my bet. Theres too much stimulus (tax cuts) and potential stimulus (rate cutting) if things start to slow down.

There are few head winds such as high interest rate levels but there are also some terrific tail winds coming from resources which is a gift that will keep on giving for some time. Fair value of the Australian dollar is close to 1.30 to 1.40 according to Goldies and Lehman bros when the terms of trade is taken into account. The Aussie doll will be over parity or if the big buck turns it will make big highs against other major currencies.

US GDP was just in. It was positive was +.6%. I would actually take a reasonable bet that the US does not actually fall into recession, or if it does it will be very shallow.

World&#039;s OK : credit markets are fixing themselves up and stocks, particularly US stocks look reary reary reary cheap. Despite some negative housing numbers stocks of large home builders in the US have actually started to rise significantly and let&#039;s not forget that the banks have had a great rally from their lows. A positive yield curve does wonders to sweep things under the table.

It&#039;s ok to be optimistic from now on.

One caveat though, we can&#039;t afford any big policy mistake. 

If there&#039;s one place that looks worrying it&#039;s Europe as the High Euro, a tight arsed central bank and very slow reform could kill them. This time next year people will be talking about Europe&#039;s economic problems</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Tax food, for goodness sake. Imagine the reductions which could be made available through income tax.</p></blockquote>
<p>Are you proposing that as an incentive for weight loss, Niall?</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<p>You got it Ken P. Market economics or speculating about the future makes everyone an economist. There isn&#8217;t going to be a recession in oz for the next two years is my bet. Theres too much stimulus (tax cuts) and potential stimulus (rate cutting) if things start to slow down.</p>
<p>There are few head winds such as high interest rate levels but there are also some terrific tail winds coming from resources which is a gift that will keep on giving for some time. Fair value of the Australian dollar is close to 1.30 to 1.40 according to Goldies and Lehman bros when the terms of trade is taken into account. The Aussie doll will be over parity or if the big buck turns it will make big highs against other major currencies.</p>
<p>US GDP was just in. It was positive was +.6%. I would actually take a reasonable bet that the US does not actually fall into recession, or if it does it will be very shallow.</p>
<p>World&#8217;s OK : credit markets are fixing themselves up and stocks, particularly US stocks look reary reary reary cheap. Despite some negative housing numbers stocks of large home builders in the US have actually started to rise significantly and let&#8217;s not forget that the banks have had a great rally from their lows. A positive yield curve does wonders to sweep things under the table.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s ok to be optimistic from now on.</p>
<p>One caveat though, we can&#8217;t afford any big policy mistake. </p>
<p>If there&#8217;s one place that looks worrying it&#8217;s Europe as the High Euro, a tight arsed central bank and very slow reform could kill them. This time next year people will be talking about Europe&#8217;s economic problems</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267057</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 13:15:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267057</guid>
		<description>Er, reducing double tax - isn&#039;t there some virtue in that? Not to mention providing an incentive to distribute profits, which &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rba.gov.au/rdp/RDP9211.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;does &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;seem to have worked.

Very few countries double tax dividends as ordinary income. A number give you a credit irrespective of the underlying tax borne (more expensive), a number tax you at different rates on dividends and capital income as opposed to &#039;personal exertion&#039; income, some exclude a portion of dividends from assessment. At the company level, a number of countries have deductible dividends (which would provide cost of capital neutrality), some in effect a deduction for dividends (ie a tax credit for distributed profits) and others tax retained (ie undistributed) profits (like Australia&#039;s old private company tax). If we scrapped imputation, presumably we would replace it with something? Which would you suggest? 

If the only thing you suggest is scrapping refundability, isn&#039;t that a bit regressive?

Also, practically, the ridiculous proposition of paying over 80 per cent tax (which was the situation in Australia prior to imputation) led to incredible effort being spent in avoidance (fair enough, too). That can hardly be considered efficient.

Finally, I agree with cutting corporate tax rates - note that that would make imputation &#039;cheaper&#039; at a stroke :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Er, reducing double tax &#8211; isn&#8217;t there some virtue in that? Not to mention providing an incentive to distribute profits, which <em><a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/rdp/RDP9211.pdf">does </a></em>seem to have worked.</p>
<p>Very few countries double tax dividends as ordinary income. A number give you a credit irrespective of the underlying tax borne (more expensive), a number tax you at different rates on dividends and capital income as opposed to &#8216;personal exertion&#8217; income, some exclude a portion of dividends from assessment. At the company level, a number of countries have deductible dividends (which would provide cost of capital neutrality), some in effect a deduction for dividends (ie a tax credit for distributed profits) and others tax retained (ie undistributed) profits (like Australia&#8217;s old private company tax). If we scrapped imputation, presumably we would replace it with something? Which would you suggest? </p>
<p>If the only thing you suggest is scrapping refundability, isn&#8217;t that a bit regressive?</p>
<p>Also, practically, the ridiculous proposition of paying over 80 per cent tax (which was the situation in Australia prior to imputation) led to incredible effort being spent in avoidance (fair enough, too). That can hardly be considered efficient.</p>
<p>Finally, I agree with cutting corporate tax rates &#8211; note that that would make imputation &#8216;cheaper&#8217; at a stroke :)</p>
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		<title>By: Francis Xavier Holden</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267048</link>
		<dc:creator>Francis Xavier Holden</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 11:24:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267048</guid>
		<description>stt - I am led to understand that the Engineering workforce is to a large extent international and global gypsies following (well paid) work and projects and has been for some time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>stt &#8211; I am led to understand that the Engineering workforce is to a large extent international and global gypsies following (well paid) work and projects and has been for some time.</p>
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		<title>By: Niall</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267030</link>
		<dc:creator>Niall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 10:28:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267030</guid>
		<description>what&#039;s wrong with real &#039;root and branch&#039; tax reform which incorporates the GST? I&#039;d be all for an increase to the GST, IF and only if all other direct and indirect taxes and excises could be done away with. Tax food, for goodness sake. Imagine the reductions which could be made available through income tax.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>what&#8217;s wrong with real &#8216;root and branch&#8217; tax reform which incorporates the GST? I&#8217;d be all for an increase to the GST, IF and only if all other direct and indirect taxes and excises could be done away with. Tax food, for goodness sake. Imagine the reductions which could be made available through income tax.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-267023</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 10:19:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-267023</guid>
		<description>What other aims do you think it has?  And do you think you might be able to meet them at less than $20 bil?  I do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What other aims do you think it has?  And do you think you might be able to meet them at less than $20 bil?  I do.</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/04/30/the-growing-risk-of-recession-what-can-be-done-to-prevent-it/#comment-266974</link>
		<dc:creator>Patrick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:15:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=5246#comment-266974</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;without any desired structural effect.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Basic fairness? avoid double-taxation and the ridiculous distortions that used to produce? Encourage share ownership (and hence more risk-tolerant equity investments as opposed to debt investments)?

It might not lower the cost of capital (although surely it should?) but it accomplishes other aims, doesn&#039;t it?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>without any desired structural effect.</p></blockquote>
<p>Basic fairness? avoid double-taxation and the ridiculous distortions that used to produce? Encourage share ownership (and hence more risk-tolerant equity investments as opposed to debt investments)?</p>
<p>It might not lower the cost of capital (although surely it should?) but it accomplishes other aims, doesn&#8217;t it?</p>
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