The missing chapter of The Wisdom of Crowds

If you loved The Wisdom of Crowds, easily the best economic bestseller I’ve read since The Theory of Moral Sentiments and that was published in 1759, you’ll lerve this post by Michael Nielsen. Michael himself is quite an achiever. A graduate of the Uni of Queensland, he’s not only a scientist of some considerable standing (judging by the claims made on his website), he’s a truly fabulous writer. Check out these simple but compelling standards, and see how he meets them in this essay on the chess game of the century.

It had me reaching for the Wisdom of Crowds, which sadly has no index, but I’m pretty sure it’s not discussed at any length in there. What’s fascinating is the role of the ‘information broker’ and how they get to play that role (by acquiring a reputation!). I think it’s something when someone can be so good at one thing (straight cutting edge science at least judging by what is said on his website) and is then so damn good at another quite different skill. It’s not fair.

In the meantime, if you really want to settle into the Michael’s article, you may want to see some commentary as you go through the game – open a new tab here. And the game can be played over the net by opening a new window here.

Have the Tories embraced ‘progressive fusionism’?

George Osborne gave a surprising speech earlier this month. The Shadow Chancellor spoke about the egalitarian philosopher John Rawls and called for greater equality of opportunity. He praised Swedish educational reforms and argued that parents should be able to choose a school for their child. And he insisted the government needed to put a price on carbon to protect future generations from the costs of global warming.

At the same time, he reaffirmed the Tories’ belief in free markets and the liberalism of Friedrich Hayek. While arguing for greater fairness and social mobility, he insisted that these could only be achieved by conservative means. This sounds a lot like the ‘progressive fusionism‘ promoted by the Cato Institute’s Brink Lindsey. In a 2006 essay for the New Republic, Brink described it as “A movement that, at the philosophical level, seeks some kind of reconciliation between Hayek and Rawls.”

You might expect that a British conservative would struggle most with the Rawlsian part of this philosophical fusion. But surprisingly, it is Hayek’s ideas that Osborne chokes on. In his speech, he seems to deliberately avoid confronting one of Hayek’s most important insights.

Osborne insists that a “a fair society is one where people are properly rewarded for their effort and ability” and that “the free market economy is the fairest way of rewarding people for their efforts.” But Hayek argued that markets can never be fair in this sense. As Hayek scholar Jeremy Shearmur writes:

… Hayek argued — pace the wishful thinking of some conservatives — there simply is no moral merit to the distribution of wealth within such a society, and that one cost of such a society may thus be that it generates forms of economic inequality that we find morally unattractive (p 153).

Markets are efficient, but they are not engines of distributive justice. No doubt that’s a tough message to sell to a focus group.

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Labor’s Love Lost?

Labor-leaning Sunday Territorian columnist Scott Stirling wrote last week about the challenges facing the CLP Opposition.  However, they pale by comparison with the situation faced by the Henderson government.

Some are purely political problems in the wake of Labors recent close encounter with electoral oblivion. However, the really big challenges are fiscal and policy ones.  The largest are in education and indigenous affairs, signalled by PM Kevin Rudd’s announcement this week of the next stage of his “Education Revolution”.

Although partly a calculated distraction from gathering economic storm clouds, Rudd shows every sign of being serious about forcing the States and Territories to publish data on comparative school performance, pay teachers on merit, and insist that welfare entitlements are tied to school attendance.  Each element poses problems for the NT Labor government.

Paul Henderson lost no time in claiming publicly that Territory parents already have access to detailed data on schools’ performance.  All they had to do, he said, was phone their local school principal. Curious parents might want to try this and see how they go.  I dont fancy their chances of obtaining meaningful comparative information.

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Police and the state of NSW

From a Fin Review column on 22nd July.

The February meeting of the Shellharbour council, on the NSW south coast, was to start at 7.15pm. But the majority of councillors, Labor Party members, refused to assemble until an undesirable left the public gallery. He seemed harmless, frail and aged, with a walking stick, a limp and a bunch of military medals. He caused no problems as he sat in the public gallery, waiting. But at 7.50 pm, police evicted him.

It seems of no concern to the NSW police force – or to the government – that the police officers had no legal power to act against this man. He had done nothing wrong that night in the council gallery. He was ejected because the council had previously ordered that he not attend that meeting. That decision was unlawful: the council had no power to make it. And the police unlawfully diminished his rights by supporting the council.

It is ironic that the NSW government subsequently sacked Shellharbour council because councillors had no proper understanding of their roles and responsibilities. The same could be said of the police, but you can assume the government has not taken any action against these officers. They were doing the governments bidding.

There are other instances where police act improperly if not unlawfully at the governments behest. Continue reading

Cutie of the week (well last week)

Congratulations to Mathew Mitcham – I think I’m right in saying the only out gay guy in the Olympics. Congratulations for his coming through depression, and burnout and coming back and doing so well. Mathew was stoked to be getting silver. Then the guy coming first dived not so well and Mathew did the most highly scored Olympic dive of all time. He got out of the pool with a huge smile on his face, made a generous bow to the audience – I’m guessing his family group in the crowd – then looked at the scoreboard, realised he’d won the gold medal and burst into tears.

The cameras didn’t seem too comfortable including boyfriend Lachlan in the frame, but Mathew wasn’t phased and just alternated between kissing his mum and his lover. They didn’t have much choice then did they! A small act of humanity, like Nicky Winmar’s iconic pointing to the colour of his skin. And yet there was no anger or defiance – just natural affection. Makes me feel all good inside.

Congratulations Mathew Mitcham – Troppo’s official Cutie of the Week!!.

“An Imperfect Offering: Dispatches from the medical frontline”

“The rich beauty of Dr. James Orbinskis writing contrasts with the stark poverty and suffering of the people he has served. . . . This book exposes truths most of us would rather not know. Do not put it down. . . . See who you become after reading it.

Canadian Medical Association Journal

I was equally moved by an interview with the author on tonight’s LNL. The unsparing clarity of his insight into suffering and redemption after years on the frontline with MSF in Rwanda, Somalia and Afghanistan is a dark and beautiful gift.

Mutually assured tribalism

Youre right that weve reached a political consensus on neoliberalism in public policy, Mark. There is no battle of ideas anymore, save the many little battles within broader long-term questions of how do we convert this or that social democratic structure into a neoliberal one?

Source.

Social democracy is so deeply entrenched in our political institutions that it is in the fine-tuning and adaptation phase, not the original new thinking phase.

Source.

I am also guilty of this. Is it because we in the political class are exposed in debate to the arguments of our most ‘extreme’ opponents and therefore have a skewed view of what is happening? I reckon I sense a few PhDs worth of work here — in Economics and Psychology to start with.

Edit:

It hasnt occured to anyone that there is no longer a battle of ideas, because neo-liberalism won the battle?

Source.

I feel very differently.

Final edit, I promise:

Finally, the fact you can only think about these things in a war-like, battle context is really sad, and I think highlights a tragic tendency.

The war is all in your head dudes – you think most people give a shit about this (even the informed ones)? What about – I dont know, its so wacky – the policy solution that will engender the best solution? What about getting departments to actually do the research to find out what the best way forward is, rather than rooting about like truffle pigs trying to find the rare treasure that jusitifies the already taken intellectual position?

Source.

That’d be nice, but it flies in the face of what the shrinks have learnt about biases, about how people selectively perceive ‘proof’ of existing beliefs, how self-worth gets muddled up with consistency, and how important social standing and conformity are.

We’re all stuck inside these rather dodgy meat machines; it can be difficult to disentangle ourselves, our beliefs, and the probability that there’s an objective reality separate from either.

Civil procedure – the column

http://www.eurowarrant.net/images/cms_eaw_1_6_justice.jpgThanks to Ken Parish for helpful comments and corrections.

The high price of justice

Nazi Sex Romp!

Now Ive got your attention Im going to talk about legal procedure. After the lecture well return to the sex romp.

Attorney General Robert McClelland has joined the chorus of condemnation seeking better access to our courts. In cases both large and small, the cost of litigation is often hugely, absurdly to quote the Attorney totally disproportionate to the value of the claim.

No-ones solved the problem anywhere. We havent solved it for the same reasons weve not tamed over-regulation. The devils in the detail. And as life gets more complex and computerised, the detail just keeps growing.

In our system the opposing sides generally their lawyers construct the case by following the rules of a procedural game, each trying to get the upper hand. The judges role is to adjudicate this contest; and only indirectly to find the truth. This provides cover for delay, denial and obfuscation.

As High Court Justice Hayne recently put it “Usually only one side . . . will be anxious to isolate the determinative issue in the case and have that decided quickly. The other side will have powerful reasons to avoid that being done.” Continue reading