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	<title>Comments on: A word of sanity &#8211; from the usual suspect</title>
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	<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/</link>
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		<title>By: John Quiggin</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359362</link>
		<dc:creator>John Quiggin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 07:12:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359362</guid>
		<description>Just a note that &quot;John Greenfield&quot; is not only an idiot but a sockpuppeteer

Evidence here

http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/26/sockpuppet-ban/

Obviously, each site has its own comments policy, but I&#039;d suggest that in this case mine (immediate and permanent ban) is appropriate.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just a note that &#8220;John Greenfield&#8221; is not only an idiot but a sockpuppeteer</p>
<p>Evidence here</p>
<p><a href="http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/26/sockpuppet-ban/">http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/26/sockpuppet-ban/</a></p>
<p>Obviously, each site has its own comments policy, but I&#8217;d suggest that in this case mine (immediate and permanent ban) is appropriate.</p>
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		<title>By: FDB</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359306</link>
		<dc:creator>FDB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:28:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359306</guid>
		<description>Counter-argument to what, John?

The day you present an actual argument, on anything at all, let&#039;s worry about that, shall we?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Counter-argument to what, John?</p>
<p>The day you present an actual argument, on anything at all, let&#8217;s worry about that, shall we?</p>
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		<title>By: pedro</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359286</link>
		<dc:creator>pedro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 03:17:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359286</guid>
		<description>Fraid that looks more like the partisan shlock that lately seems to be flowing ever moe freely from Krugman&#039;s pen.  It is hardly Goldman&#039;s fault that the govt has bailed out the finance industry and he doesn&#039;t mention that GS has repaid its TARP funds.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fraid that looks more like the partisan shlock that lately seems to be flowing ever moe freely from Krugman&#8217;s pen.  It is hardly Goldman&#8217;s fault that the govt has bailed out the finance industry and he doesn&#8217;t mention that GS has repaid its TARP funds.</p>
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		<title>By: cjoye</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359242</link>
		<dc:creator>cjoye</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Jul 2009 00:09:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359242</guid>
		<description>I agree with JC that PK is probably over-simplifying this, if that is what he is saying. One of the peculiarities of the system-wide deleveraging process is that companies are raising massive amounts of equity to replace debt. I assume that PK is in violent agreement with us that that is a very good thing. Of course, somebody needs to raise that equity for those companies--you guessed it, the i-banks. And since competition has declined materially, there is less pressure on fees. In fact, I am sure GS argues that given the generally adverse market conditions they need just as high, or higher fees, to raise large amounts of equity these days. I have not parsed the results to see the contribution from their investment banking advisory and ECM businesses. But if GS is making a lot of money out of its advisory work, that is another good thing: they should be shifting back to their original knitting and moving away from making the big prop bets that cruelled so many of these institutions. I agree with PK on compensation though--GS are very smart, so I would expect them to surprise us on the upside with a new REM system that addresses the short-termist call-option like payoffs that have been the cause for so much concern (and appear to be the focus on PKs attentions).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with JC that PK is probably over-simplifying this, if that is what he is saying. One of the peculiarities of the system-wide deleveraging process is that companies are raising massive amounts of equity to replace debt. I assume that PK is in violent agreement with us that that is a very good thing. Of course, somebody needs to raise that equity for those companies&#8211;you guessed it, the i-banks. And since competition has declined materially, there is less pressure on fees. In fact, I am sure GS argues that given the generally adverse market conditions they need just as high, or higher fees, to raise large amounts of equity these days. I have not parsed the results to see the contribution from their investment banking advisory and ECM businesses. But if GS is making a lot of money out of its advisory work, that is another good thing: they should be shifting back to their original knitting and moving away from making the big prop bets that cruelled so many of these institutions. I agree with PK on compensation though&#8211;GS are very smart, so I would expect them to surprise us on the upside with a new REM system that addresses the short-termist call-option like payoffs that have been the cause for so much concern (and appear to be the focus on PKs attentions).</p>
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		<title>By: Tel_</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359231</link>
		<dc:creator>Tel_</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:01:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359231</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;
Goldmans role in the financialization of America was similar to that of other players, except for one thing: Goldman didnt believe its own hype. Other banks invested heavily in the same toxic waste they were selling to the public at large. Goldman, famously, made a lot of money selling securities backed by subprime mortgages  then made a lot more money by selling mortgage-backed securities short, just before their value crashed. All of this was perfectly legal, but the net effect was that Goldman made profits by playing the rest of us for suckers.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

It was widely known that the house of cards would fall down, but no one ever knows exactly how high it will build before it does fall, nor exactly when. Like a game of musical chairs, timing is the key. The only way to get your timing perfect is to be the guy who yanks the card out from the bottom of the pile and triggers the collapse.

Conclusion: you want to be that guy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>
Goldmans role in the financialization of America was similar to that of other players, except for one thing: Goldman didnt believe its own hype. Other banks invested heavily in the same toxic waste they were selling to the public at large. Goldman, famously, made a lot of money selling securities backed by subprime mortgages  then made a lot more money by selling mortgage-backed securities short, just before their value crashed. All of this was perfectly legal, but the net effect was that Goldman made profits by playing the rest of us for suckers.
</p></blockquote>
<p>It was widely known that the house of cards would fall down, but no one ever knows exactly how high it will build before it does fall, nor exactly when. Like a game of musical chairs, timing is the key. The only way to get your timing perfect is to be the guy who yanks the card out from the bottom of the pile and triggers the collapse.</p>
<p>Conclusion: you want to be that guy.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359228</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 05:50:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359228</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;then made a lot more money by selling mortgage-backed securities short, just before their value crashed. All of this was perfectly legal, but the net effect was that Goldman made profits by playing the rest of us for suckers.

&lt;/blockquote&gt;


Actually they didn&#039;t, Nic. Overall they probably lost money, as net/net the prop book gained what they lost on the MBS/origination desk. It&#039;s not only perfectly legal but also indicative of good management, as they allowed the prop traders to think freely and take reasonable latitude in terms of how they expressed their view/risk. It&#039;s really not surprising that one section of the bank had a contrary position to another. Even single trading desks have traders with opposing positions and risk expressed that way. That how we worked and there was never anything unusual about that.

Goldman&#039;s P&amp;L looks good because they had far less write downs this quarter compared to the rest of the street. Take Bank of America that reported last night our time. They reported a profit of around $3.2 billion after massive write downs of around 8 billion. Normalized earnings for Bof would have been around $8 billion for the quarter. So looking at Goldman&#039;s profit from that perspective doesn&#039;t seem extraordinary.

&lt;blockquote&gt;The bottom line is that Goldmans blowout quarter is good news for Goldman and the people who work there. Its good news for financial superstars in general, whose paychecks are rapidly climbing back to precrisis levels. But its bad news for almost everyone else.

&lt;/blockquote&gt;

These large normalized earnings being reported on Wall street this quarter have a lot to do with advisory, recapitalization and bond issuance, which means the capital markets are thawing out. This is a good thing and it&#039;s certainly not bad news for Main street as firms are being funded again. There was something like $300 billion new equity issuance this quarter alone which is terrific news. Of course banks make make on that.... around 3 to 6% on am equity issues and perhaps 1 to 2% on advisory.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>then made a lot more money by selling mortgage-backed securities short, just before their value crashed. All of this was perfectly legal, but the net effect was that Goldman made profits by playing the rest of us for suckers.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Actually they didn&#8217;t, Nic. Overall they probably lost money, as net/net the prop book gained what they lost on the MBS/origination desk. It&#8217;s not only perfectly legal but also indicative of good management, as they allowed the prop traders to think freely and take reasonable latitude in terms of how they expressed their view/risk. It&#8217;s really not surprising that one section of the bank had a contrary position to another. Even single trading desks have traders with opposing positions and risk expressed that way. That how we worked and there was never anything unusual about that.</p>
<p>Goldman&#8217;s P&amp;L looks good because they had far less write downs this quarter compared to the rest of the street. Take Bank of America that reported last night our time. They reported a profit of around $3.2 billion after massive write downs of around 8 billion. Normalized earnings for Bof would have been around $8 billion for the quarter. So looking at Goldman&#8217;s profit from that perspective doesn&#8217;t seem extraordinary.</p>
<blockquote><p>The bottom line is that Goldmans blowout quarter is good news for Goldman and the people who work there. Its good news for financial superstars in general, whose paychecks are rapidly climbing back to precrisis levels. But its bad news for almost everyone else.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These large normalized earnings being reported on Wall street this quarter have a lot to do with advisory, recapitalization and bond issuance, which means the capital markets are thawing out. This is a good thing and it&#8217;s certainly not bad news for Main street as firms are being funded again. There was something like $300 billion new equity issuance this quarter alone which is terrific news. Of course banks make make on that&#8230;. around 3 to 6% on am equity issues and perhaps 1 to 2% on advisory.</p>
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		<title>By: John Greenfield</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359224</link>
		<dc:creator>John Greenfield</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 03:06:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359224</guid>
		<description>FDB

THAT is your counter-argument? Oh dear.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>FDB</p>
<p>THAT is your counter-argument? Oh dear.</p>
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		<title>By: conrad</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359223</link>
		<dc:creator>conrad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 22:24:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359223</guid>
		<description>I think I want to become a banker..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I want to become a banker..</p>
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		<title>By: FDB</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359221</link>
		<dc:creator>FDB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:49:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359221</guid>
		<description>Honestly Nick?

Is this person the subject of some study?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Honestly Nick?</p>
<p>Is this person the subject of some study?</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas Gruen</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359220</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Gruen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:42:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359220</guid>
		<description>Yes, there are greater idiots. Sigh . . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, there are greater idiots. Sigh . . .</p>
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		<title>By: FDB</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359219</link>
		<dc:creator>FDB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:40:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359219</guid>
		<description>Can anyone think of a greater idiot than John Greenfield?

I&#039;m serious. Is there one?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can anyone think of a greater idiot than John Greenfield?</p>
<p>I&#8217;m serious. Is there one?</p>
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		<title>By: John Greenfield</title>
		<link>http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/07/17/a-word-of-sanity-from-the-usual-suspect/#comment-359214</link>
		<dc:creator>John Greenfield</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 12:11:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clubtroppo.com.au/?p=8944#comment-359214</guid>
		<description>All this does is re-emphasize the idiocy and hubris of those who have spent the past 6 months shrieking about the re-throning pf &quot;social democracy&quot; and the regicide of free markets.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All this does is re-emphasize the idiocy and hubris of those who have spent the past 6 months shrieking about the re-throning pf &#8220;social democracy&#8221; and the regicide of free markets.</p>
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