What Next for Turnbull?
Posted by Jacques Chester on Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Turnbull’s decision to go all-in over OzCar on the basis of a single email is now clearly recognised as one of the greatest all-time blunders in Australian political history. He was just too eager; he fell for the oldest of all human flaws — wishful thinking.
In fable terms, Turnbull’s character is the Lion — brave, bold and brilliant. But he does not seem to have about him an Old Fox to stay his hand. An Old Fox would have been whispering that it would be unwise to read to much into the email, unwise to bet everything on Grech, unwise to rush in. In such situations there’s more to be made from innuendo. More to be made from playing “small stack poker”.
I am no Fox and no Lion, but I imagine that at this point a Fox would tell Turnbull to take it on the chin and quit. The great man who fails greatly can still be great. But to deny your own mistakes, when they are plain for all to see, will hamstring you forever.
If Turnbull quits, he has a chance to come back in future, having taken his lumps. If he stays on, the electorate will do to him and Liberals what he cannot do to himself.
Quitting in disgrace and returning in triumph is as old as politics. There are swings and roundabouts; there are tides in the affairs of men. Turnbull’s tide is ebbing, and he should follow it out to sea for a while. Otherwise he will be stranded on the unyielding rock of government intransigence, under the unforgiving sun of an unamused electorate.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 4th, 2009 at 8:07 PM and filed under Politics - national.
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The worst of all blunders? Have a look back to some of the silliness of Doc Evatt in the early days of the Menzies government. It is a major blue and probably fatal to his long term prospects. But he won’t resign until forced to do so, much as happened with Evatt. It is not the way of Australian politics. It took years to dynamite Peacock then Howard out of their leadership. Hewson left only when he had no choice. Hawke was ground down and nobody moved against Keating when he was heading for disaster. Leaders don’t let go of the key to the executive toilet without a fight.
Posted on 04-Aug-09 at 10:05 pm | PermalinkTurnbull is not of the Party, or even any political tradition. He looks at being a parliamentarian as another challenge and ambition to be satisfied. Unfortunately the Liberal Party embraces those who are ambitious but essentially an ideology free zone. Exhibit 1 is Brendan Nelson. He is leaving at the next election. When Turnbull leaves the leadership he will be gone at the next election. Onto another challenge. He is not Menzies, content to take years to look at himself and come back as an entirely different leader.
Methinks Turnbull will stagger on to the next election because nobody wants this poisoned chalice. Even Hockey will beg off.
denningesque is right on the Turnbull psychology with this one. From the Rudd perspective I would hesitate to go for the jugular and try to force the Libs to act. I don’t think the public will go for that one…’hitting the man when he’s down..’ won’t appeal to the punters’ sporting cred, particularly when there are far more important issues such as the GFC and climate change to get serious about.
Posted on 05-Aug-09 at 8:13 am | PermalinkBetter to leave it to the Parliamentary Privileges folk. Much more statesman-like.
May I just say that although I’m not much of a fan of Turnbull, he was asking the questions that needed to be asked under the circumstances and he never pretended to know the answer to those questions (well, he did pretend, but only for rhetorical effect). If there is some reasonable evidence of government misbehaviour then that is exactly the job of the opposition to drag that up into the light.
It is stupid to suggest that opposition should be 100% sure of these things before bringing them to parliament — that’s not how parliament operates, and the civil service has a “code” to never provide information to opposition where they can avoid it, and the opposition has extremely limited investigative powers. I would much rather have the wishful thinking and somewhat uncoordinated Turnbull style opposition, than the “low profile” waste of space that the Beazley led opposition was during the Howard years.
Governments of recent decades have become rather adept at keeping key pieces of information out of parliament. We have a good system, and these guys are gaming that system. You are paying them to rule your life, you jolly well deserve to know what they are up to.
Posted on 06-Aug-09 at 7:13 am | Permalink“Turnbull is not of the Party”
Quite. He is a lefty imported into the party for cynical reasons. The Liberals have a history of losing their way with leaders who have no principles. There’s no John Howard around at the moment to lead them out of the wilderness, so they’ll just have to flounder around in the desert for their “forty” years. In the meantiome I’m going to have to revert to voting informal until I have a non-left alternative. Nothing at all in or near sight at the moment.
Posted on 07-Aug-09 at 1:45 pm | Permalink