The OECD are entertaining the readers of their newsletter by asking them whether the worst is over.
Apparently only 10% of people don’t know. That’s one informed readership. Nothing like having a few clairvoyants on board.
Is the worst of the global economic crisis behind us?
| Yes | 18% |  |
| No | 72% |  |
| Don’t know | 10% | |
Perhaps they should start an OECD betting market.
What is their readership profile like ?
Your guess is as good as mine – but wonk types like me I expect. Whomever would subscribe to an OECD update.
Wondering what sort of people it is that are feeling very definitely black- If you see the captain and crew getting into the life boat it does tend to make one nervous.
Hello Nicholas,
if you look more carefully, there were only 116 votes so far, since october 4. “Pas de quoi fouetter un chat” as we say in French !!
Cheers
Serge
what about probably but possibly not!
The notion that such a poll can predict future market movements contradicts the EMH which I presume the OECD still claim to believe in. Why would they not just look at market index futures?
Moreover, it strikes me that conducting such a poll is incredibly irresponsible. It has the potential to cause the crisis whose likelihood it measures. True, others will conduct such surveys even if OECD do not. But that does not make it right.
Very well put Chris.
It’s like polling sportsmen as to whether their team will win – or allowing them to bet on the outcome of their own performance – the poll result will influence the result-result.
As evidenced by John @4.
The previous OECD poll attracted 965 votes over 4 months – you would get more engagement at the proverbial chook raffle in a pub.
That made me laugh
It’s also quite important in a way. If people are this negative and I-bank surveys seem to indicate asset managers are in the same boat with some seriously perverse, self contradictory poll answers it could mean the risk for asset markets is on the upside if Europe manages to bed down the clusterfuck in some way or another.
Economic recoveries are by no means about soothsaying. Rather the recovery begins when the conditions allow it, and the resources available, are being used to improve economic performance. One need not be consulting a witch doctor, with an office in town, to understand that no recovery in Europe or the US will be forthcoming, since the relentless misdirection of resources continues unabated.
“FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Global equities surged Monday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Sunday they agreed on the need to strengthen European banks, though they stopped short of providing details.
“We are determined to do all that is necessary to guarantee bank recapitalization,” Merkel said at a joint news conference following the meeting.”
Here we have a direct vow, by the alleged leaders of the two most influential countries within the Eurozone, to continue misdirecting massive resources away from where these resources could effect a recovery. So there is to be no recovery.