Ever so gently, Kevin Rudd is looming into full view. The ALP launch was high politics. Not only did we see Bob Hawke and Paul Keating holding hands, in one swoop, the alternative leader deeply wedged the government forces with a bold fiscal policy and shored up his own side with anti-WorkChoices pledges. Anything can still happen, especially when we’re talking John Howard. As we head into the home straight, however, it’s looking like the Ruddster plus everyone from the Reserve Bank through to the ACTU and beyond versus the profligate retiree who, as far as anyone can really tell at this stage, has only sown up the orangutan vote. Fingers crossed.

Far be it for me to jinx the race, but it’s hard not to think that that’s that. The government had one shot: drive economic management to the front of the nation’s mind via the rate rise, and then break opinion on the only ground still tilted its way.

You just have to read Missing Link to appreciate that the Prime Minister comprehensively stuffed up, with his sorry but no I don’t mean I apologise for I will only take credit so I’m not to blame routine. The trajectory was always a high-wire act, carrying sufficient risk to leverage the difference. As it happened, the PM crashed into himself coming the other way in mid-air and fell into the net. The game’s up. The stride’s been broken. The water has been muddied. The government’s difficult message has become garbled. The LNP’s re-election strategy is a smoking ruin.

We’ll have to wait to see how sentiment swings, of course. There’s no telling the mythical Australian punter’s mind. But it’s now hard to see any way for the PM to turn. Hope the cricket gets interesting. To think, it all looked so clever on PowerPoint.

The PM appears to be sitting nicely a couple of weeks out. Newspoll has him coming home at a comfortable clip. Gotta love the Melbourne Cup. The sick, mad and giddy apart, gambling makes the punters think about taking risks. Follow up with a rate rise. Between the laws of probability and the definition of commerce, most punters will have lost money. As they lose confidence in taking risks, blap them with a rate rise. Hang the last election. Force the risk-averse suckers to bet on the next race.

Mr Howard defines ground zero. Will you back me in the next rate race? You don’t like WorkChoices, but it’s an anti-inflation, anti-rate plan to save your house, plus an unemployment rate of 3 per cent. The ALP has inflation-fueling unions which will let the rate monster out of the cupboard. Back me to save your house against your job and income under WorkChoices, with the lowest unemployment since the early 1970s. What is it? Make up your mind. Risk a perilous rate rise or a cosy rat race?

I suspect this will be the crucial test of Kevin Rudd, at least this time. No doubt there’s a political theory on how he should manage the moment for everyone able to have a political theory, and I’d hate to make the calls. I could more comfortably run a political campaign for an enemy. There’s a crazy freedom in being a mercenary, when it’s just a job, a paycheck, key performance indicators and a pile of bullshit.

Alas, my disapproval of the Prime Minister is in perfectly inverse proportion to my approval of the alternative. Such high stakes are excruciating. I can barely watch, let alone wish to be responsible. For two bob, I say Mr Rudd must meet this moment head on. No resting on opinion polls, slick advertising, small targets or whatever. The response must be full frontal: an all-guns blazing, scorched earth, take no prisoners, empty the purse, spectrum-dominating rebuttal, in a gentle Ruddster kinda way.

I’m not following the election, but I had an hour or two off today (from my 17-hour week, if you remember). I rang friends to see how they reckon the thing’s going down. Folks report an “it’s all over but we can’t think that” feeling, combined with stuff like “the most boring election ever” and torrents of laughter at the PM’s expense. Many think Governor Clint Eastwood Stevens will stake him with a rate rise.

Cold showers all round colleagues and comrades. Perhaps I’ve got one of those war-zone afflictions, and I don’t want to sound all Dennis Shanahan, but I reckon some timely reminders are in order. John Howard has a Hawke-Menzies election record and anyone who thinks this guy hasn’t got a plan to win back office is off their scone. If you believe for a half-second that Mr Howard hasn’t figured his trajectory on the possibility of the Reserve putting up rates, you haven’t seen him shovelling demand into the place by the truckload. Mr Howard will leap all over an interest rate rise like a Tampa he hasn’t seen since 2001, or the truth we haven’t since he ran on trust.

A rate rise will define economic management front and centre. The PM will leverage WorkChoices into the bridge, killing his biggest negative with his biggest negative, whichever you think his biggest negative. In Howard’s position, the risk has to be proportionate to the distance he must make up. It’s all worked out on PowerPoint.

I haven’t paid any attention to the election campaign so far, apart from noticing the headline polls, checking out Bill Leak’s cartoons and laughing at the Liberal Party’s advertisements on television. But, as the World Cup is over, I watched the debate, sort of, tonight, when Kevin Rudd wiped the floor with John Howard. Of course I would say that wouldn’t I, given that I’m unable to comprehend how anyone could possibly believe a single word that ever came out of Mr Howard’s mouth? Regardless, having since done a scientific survey, I can also advise that the worm, the press, the internet, my family, my friends, my neighbours, Uncle Tom Cobbly and the dog down the road have also all scored a big victory to Mr Rudd.

‘So what?’, I hear Liberal die-hards snorting. ‘The opposition leader always wins the debate, and Mr Howard always wins the election.’ Perhaps, but I tend to think it works like the advertising theory which says that, no matter how clever your pitch, it’ll only carry if it confirms an existing preference. Opposition leaders may have won the debates before to no avail, but that was in contexts where folks were, at the least, undecided on their preference. You can’t dress up a turd with lipstick, as they say, nor a poor leader with smart words. But in the current context, with Labor ahead, winning the debate may help win the vote. The entire show struck me as a free advertisment confirming the nation’s pre-existing preference. Mr Howard didn’t even try lipstick.

Update: Newspoll has stuck its head out in calling 58-42 to the ALP after the government’s triumphant first week. I gather this would have been gathered by Sunday night, pre-the debate. It’s crucial to maintain discipline, but imagine that you are a Howardophile this morning, wondering what comes after the triumphant first week. Another tax plan, for a triumphant second week? Should little children be allowed to watch public humiliation of this degree?

The good news is that the election date has been set. The bad news is that the campaign proper will now begin. The only thing I’m looking forward to is actually voting and the end of all those wretched advertisements on television. Until then, I’m thinking that I’ll do my best to avoid Australian politics like the plague. In my first and probably last election post, all I want to say is: go Kevin!