Club Troppo

I’m not following the election, but I had an hour or two off today (from my 17-hour week, if you remember). I rang friends to see how they reckon the thing’s going down. Folks report an “it’s all over but we can’t think that” feeling, combined with stuff like “the most boring election ever” and torrents of laughter at the PM’s expense. Many think Governor Clint Eastwood Stevens will stake him with a rate rise.

Cold showers all round colleagues and comrades. Perhaps I’ve got one of those war-zone afflictions, and I don’t want to sound all Dennis Shanahan, but I reckon some timely reminders are in order. John Howard has a Hawke-Menzies election record and anyone who thinks this guy hasn’t got a plan to win back office is off their scone. If you believe for a half-second that Mr Howard hasn’t figured his trajectory on the possibility of the Reserve putting up rates, you haven’t seen him shovelling demand into the place by the truckload. Mr Howard will leap all over an interest rate rise like a Tampa he hasn’t seen since 2001, or the truth we haven’t since he ran on trust.

A rate rise will define economic management front and centre. The PM will leverage WorkChoices into the bridge, killing his biggest negative with his biggest negative, whichever you think his biggest negative. In Howard’s position, the risk has to be proportionate to the distance he must make up. It’s all worked out on PowerPoint.

I haven’t paid any attention to the election campaign so far, apart from noticing the headline polls, checking out Bill Leak’s cartoons and laughing at the Liberal Party’s advertisements on television. But, as the World Cup is over, I watched the debate, sort of, tonight, when Kevin Rudd wiped the floor with John Howard. Of course I would say that wouldn’t I, given that I’m unable to comprehend how anyone could possibly believe a single word that ever came out of Mr Howard’s mouth? Regardless, having since done a scientific survey, I can also advise that the worm, the press, the internet, my family, my friends, my neighbours, Uncle Tom Cobbly and the dog down the road have also all scored a big victory to Mr Rudd.

‘So what?’, I hear Liberal die-hards snorting. ‘The opposition leader always wins the debate, and Mr Howard always wins the election.’ Perhaps, but I tend to think it works like the advertising theory which says that, no matter how clever your pitch, it’ll only carry if it confirms an existing preference. Opposition leaders may have won the debates before to no avail, but that was in contexts where folks were, at the least, undecided on their preference. You can’t dress up a turd with lipstick, as they say, nor a poor leader with smart words. But in the current context, with Labor ahead, winning the debate may help win the vote. The entire show struck me as a free advertisment confirming the nation’s pre-existing preference. Mr Howard didn’t even try lipstick.

Update: Newspoll has stuck its head out in calling 58-42 to the ALP after the government’s triumphant first week. I gather this would have been gathered by Sunday night, pre-the debate. It’s crucial to maintain discipline, but imagine that you are a Howardophile this morning, wondering what comes after the triumphant first week. Another tax plan, for a triumphant second week? Should little children be allowed to watch public humiliation of this degree?

Sadly, the most unpredictable of World Cup tournaments has come down to a damp final between the world’s two most widely disliked teams. Apart from all its cultural baggage, England is disliked because it specialises in the grimmest of rugby spectacles, the 10-man game of territory and goal kicks. South Africa is disliked for its rough-house approach to the game, for a take-no-prisoners attitude to the rules and the violent boundaries of the contest.

Still, as the discussion has turned toward all week, the Springboks are an all-round rugby team, embodying attacking prowess, along with forward strength and a kicking game. Thus, the Springboks enter the 2007 final finding themselves in the unaccustomed position of being the crowd favourites among fans worldwide.

The implicit challenge for both teams is to provide an exhibition of rugby that proves them worthy of the title of world champion. Oh yes, the winner will have legal rights, but will this convince anyone? Will anyone really accept that a grim, percentage England victory will entitle the Poms to anything but technical bragging rights? Can anyone seriously believe that England has a better rugby team than the All Blacks?

England has a better chance of winning the game than it does of convincing people that it warrants the crown that comes with the territory. On what we’ve seen so far, only South Africa can save the credibility of the World Cup. On form, the Springboks should win. For the good of the game, they must win.

Update: With a 15-6 victory, South Africa has lifted the William Webb Ellis Trophy to claim the 2007 Rugby World Cup. Congratulations to the Springboks. Bugger you Crazy Eddie. Thanks referees, linesmen and ballboys. Bring on the Tri-Nations!

The good news is that the election date has been set. The bad news is that the campaign proper will now begin. The only thing I’m looking forward to is actually voting and the end of all those wretched advertisements on television. Until then, I’m thinking that I’ll do my best to avoid Australian politics like the plague. In my first and probably last election post, all I want to say is: go Kevin!

In some ways, watching rugby on television is more enjoyable than the live experience. At half-time these days, for example, you discover that, without warning and not so much as a how’s your father, beg your pardon or thank you very much, the code’s money-grubbers have sold off the rights to your ears. At the ground, we have no protection from the inanities of the evil contemporary pollution that we too politely call advertising being poured into our earholes, from where it makes its way to offend whatever grey matter and aesthetic sensibility we might still possess. With television, at least you can mute the flood of this modern junk.

On the other hand, some aspects of the game itself don’t translate onto the small screen, such as the rolling maul. Nothing in rugby can attract, mesmerise and thrill a crowd like a rolling maul. Perhaps it’s the surprise of its appearance that grabs stadiums. Many plays have the potential to become rolling mauls, but usually you’re lucky to see a single good maul per match. At the ground, you can feel the crowd focusing when one of these rolling monsters begins to take shape and go forward. If the pack make a few metres, the applause will also begin to roll, and it will rise, metre by metre. If the maul rolls long enough, it cannot but provoke the whole house into a mighty roar, the like of which can never be conveyed by television.

I’ve not been alone in favouring the rolling maul as one of the weapons that the Wallabies should have developed to defeat the All Blacks. It’s obvious that France and South Africa have put enormous work into perfecting the extraordinary feat of teamwork, strength, discipline and skill that is required to get one of these things off the ground, and then keep it that way. The logic appeals, because a good maul will draw all the opposition’s forwards in, creating space for line breaks when the ball is finally let out. Thus, this weekend we’ll see two teams that are among the best exponents ever of one of rugby’s unique features, having practised it to a very high degree as an integral part of the thinking they’ve put in over the last four years to defeat a standard that’s already flown home to New Zealand.

How will the RWC semi-finals go? Everyone in the world bar their own supporters would love to see the Springboks go down to the Argies, as unlikely as that prospect seems. No doubt each and every tragically hollowed-out Wallaby fan will be barracking for France over England. Whatever the results, I expect to see more of those great rolling mauls, even though it’s a real pity that this will only be on television.

Update: Another bleak result, with the Poms winning 14-9 in a close contest that could have easily gone the other way. The tragedy of it was that the French completely forgot they were French, and tried to beat the English at their own game. With this crazy thought in their heads, they blighted their attacking skills, surrendering their superb rolling maul and clever running backs to the field-goal option, which kept returning rested Pommie forwards to the mid-field. What a sad state of affairs we’ve come to, given that we look like being reduced to supporting the Springboks to deny England an unthinkable sequence of Cups. Can the Argies save the world at the 11th hour with a miracle finish? I wouldn’t put my house on it. Woe.

Update: South Africa won 37-13. I didn’t see the game, but the reports suggest I didn’t miss much. Going into the final, I guess we’re all Springboks now.

Australia’s rugby record against England starkly confutes the notion that ability is a simple function of resources. England has over 700,000 rugby players; Australia has fewer than 70,000. Yet, more often than not, we flog the place on the field. Of the 33 Tests decided over the last 100 years, the Wallabies have won 20. Despite a playing pool 10 times our size, England’s First 15 hasn’t been much more than half as good as the Wallabies.

Along with everyone else in the rugby world, bar those poor unfortunates who actually live in the place where the sun don’t shine, I expect the Wallaby victory roll to reach 21 on Saturday night. The dangers are the English scrum, Jonny Wilkinson’s boot and the Pommie propensity to go the niggle. If the Poms are good for anything at all, they’ll give us a fair measure of how far our scrum has come since that dark day when we fell apart at Twickenham in November 2005. We’re also likely to get an idea of the tactics Knuckles has dreamed up to counter the field goal, which will be just as vital against the Springboks, should we manage to go all the way.

To see Australia crush England into the French dust would be a joy to behold. Such a result is not beyond the realm of possibilites. But, as hopeless as they have been in the pool games, I don’t expect the reigning World Champions to bow out without a decent fight. Nor do I think a walloping is necessarily the World Cup winning way for the Wallabies. Remember 1999 dear fans. Gradually, Australia lifted through the tournament, rising to the challenge of each match, but rising no further than necessary. I’ll be happy, so long as we’re not on the plane home Sunday.

Go the Wallabies!

Update: Some great rugby reading in today’s paper. Wayne Smith has a pearler of an overview (Knuckles is doing a star turn – if the Wallabies win the Cup, he should start his own tv show). Mark Ella is spot on, as usual, with a perfect summary of the form so far. And then there is this strange one from Simon Barnes, an Englishman who climbs up on his high-horse to declare that he is not “neo-colonial, possessed of a born-to-rule mentality, a racial supremacist, a little Englander, a snooty bastard, an avoider of baths, an oppressor, a cultural elitist, a snob … a racist, Pope Hadrian IV, a Black and Tan, Oliver Cromwell, the Duke of Cumberland, an anti-Catholic, an anti-Protestant, Edward I, a silencer of Celtic languages”. He concludes that the “England-hating O’Neill is (a) pathetic, (b) a bigot and (c) locked in the past,” therein disclosing that he has missed the bleeding obvious, which is that John O’Neil is a headline hunter and Simon Barnes’ scalp is now in his trophy bag. Go the Wallabies!

Update: I wish I could say that the better team lost. Or that we wuz robbed. Or that they were lucky. I wish I could say anything at all, except the dreaded truth, which is that England outplayed Australia. Even worse, the 12-10 result doesn’t reflect how much better the Poms played. Hats off to their forwards in particular, who dominated, not so much in the scrum, where we sort of hung on, but at the breakdown, in a way that I would have never believed possible. So comprehensively did they throw the Wallabies off their game, it seemed as though they had an extra player, or two or three, on the field. Well done and deserved England. Four more years of gloating Pommies. Oh, the pain, the pain. It’s only a game, right? Oh, the pain …

In the biggest scandal since Phar Lap, Australia’s chance of a third rugby World Cup may have sunk this week, thanks to some Dirty Pierre infecting the great Bernie Larkham. Australia was always only an outside chance, assuming our champion 10 would be on the paddock, on song. Without Larkham, a Wallaby World Cup is not impossible, only unimaginable.

For Australia to be good enough to take the tournament, sans Bernie, the Wallabies will have to become something that we have literally not seen before. New forces will have to emerge. The players who still have latent potential will have to stand right up, fully realising themselves, immediately.

We do have guys still developing. Think of Matt Dunning, who has made so much progress. No question, there is more to come from Berrick Barnes. Adam Ashley-Cooper could fully arrive, or turn up like he did against the All Blacks earlier this year. Wycliffe Palu is growing through the tournament. Giteau is having the time of his life. There will come a day when Rocky Elsom will defeat one of the rugby superpowers single-handedly, as could Morts. Can Nathan Sharpe pull another finger out? George Smith is, perhaps, the only Wallaby who we definitely know can’t get any better, since he’s already the best.

The Wallabies can’t be written off. But the news of Bernie’s nobbling will have put a big smile on the face of every sheep in New Zealand, which has never defeated Australia in a World Cup match. In the meantime, Knuckles’ boys have a meaningless game against Canada this weekend, a hiatus, an effective gap in the schedule, into which we have sent the reserves, to break their cabin fever and get their names on the list of participants. There’s no point in even running any moves, as few of these players will be executing them, come the big time.

More interesting is England vs Tonga. Will the Poms become the first Cup holder to die in the following pool? A delicious humiliation may loom. The other hot game is Argentina vs Ireland. If the Argies get up, the Dirty Pierres will face the Blacks in a quarter-final in Cardiff, in their own World Cup! Think of Bernie, and call it Karma.

Go Tonga! Go the Argies!

Update: Rugby is a demanding template, and fans must endure many desulatory exhibitions, as we did last night in Australia’s horrible 37-6 win over Canada, about which the less said the better. With my spirit low, I met a friend for a drink afterwards, where I saw most of the Fiji-Wales game. From the mind-numbing to the utterly sublime. If you missed it, read Stephen Jones’ match report, which begins: “Well, how many greats do you want? Perhaps the greatest World Cup game ever played, perhaps the greatest feast of rugby and the greatest range of attacking palletes. Perhaps the greatest upset, and perhaps the final condemnation of all those who would rather that great rugby nations such as Fiji were given their own minor-countries tournament to mess about in. This was one of those games that you will need to sit with the video in a darkened room to believe that it ever happened.” And that’s just for starters. It was an epic. If it’s replayed, don’t miss it for quids.

Update: The quarter-finals are, in order of playing times: (1) Australia vs England; (2) New Zealand vs France (at Cardiff); (3) South Africa vs Fiji; (4) Argentina vs Scotland. As anticipated, this means that the sequence facing the Wallabies is: (1) England; (2) the All Blacks (or France); and (3) the Springboks, assuming that the Boks can get past supercharged outsiders, Fiji and Argentina. The end of the pools also means that the first consolation prizes have been distributed, with Tonga, Wales, Italy and Ireland securing automatic qualification for the 2011 World Cup. Go the Wallabies!

Bernie Watch: In comments, Fred Argy advises that, writing in todays (i.e. Monday’s) Canberra Times, Bernie says he is now jogging!

It’s been a great week for Wallaby fans, with the team winning more positive copy than it has received all year, or two. Well and good, although it’s way too early to start getting carried away. Continuous improvement must be the watchwords for the Wallabies in this World Cup. Australia will put Fiji to the sword on Sunday. But that’s less important than creating a trajectory of continuous improvement through the tournament, which we must do if we’re to steal the thing.

The priority must continue to be on developing our forward play, our scrum, our rolling maul, our pick-and-drive, our counter-attack from breakdowns, for this is where we must eventually match the All Blacks, assuming we get into the semi-finals. The test in playing Fiji lies not in being able to win, and win well, but in being able to maintain, nay positively improve, our teamwork, particularly in the forwards.

In the backs, all eyes will be on the baby superstar, Berrick Barnes. Mark Ella puts his sensational tour into perspective in the Oz today. Fiji will also see the return of the Coopster, who is starting in 13. This is where he says he feels most comfortable, and where Captain Morts reckons Coops will spend his future. The player most desperate for a big outing is Lote Tuqiri. Wayne Smith reviews the problem today. I suspect Knuckles and Co will give him until the finals to show up, but the sooner the better.

Go the Wallabies!

P.S. England versus Samoa could be a cracker. Can Jonny Wilkinson make a difference to these no-hopers, or will the Pommies totally disgrace themselves? Go Samoa!

Update: OK, we won 55-12, scored seven tries, gathered the bonus point and cemented a place in the quarter finals. But for mine, it was the most unsatisfying Wallaby game of the year. The forwards were a dog’s breakfast and the team was sloppy all round. I’m disconcerted by the fact that we’ve already let in more tries than the two previous times that we’ve won the Cup. No way did we look potential World Champions. Maybe this was the let down we had to have. Maybe any team from which you subtract George Smith, Bernie Larkham and Stirling Mortlock is going to look relatively second rate. Having proved their detractors wrong; now the Wallabies have to prove they’re really up for the full tilt.

Crazy Eddie Watch #5: “Rocky Elsom has panned former coach Eddie Jones for turning the Wallabies into a boring team. Elsom suggested leading forwards were banned from showing any adventure on the field and lived in fear of making mistakes before Jones was sacked two years ago.” It’s a big story, getting bigger.

Crazy Eddie Watch #6: “It was reported this week that some of the senior Springboks were considering not wearing their blazers until the South African Rugby Union gave Australian coach Eddie Jones a blazer. But the union said a condition of Jones’s employment was that he would not be given a blazer.” Doncha miss him?

Crazy Eddie Watch #7: From the tapes: “Look John, I know youve got Australian rugbys interests at heart, but did you really have to have Rocky Elsom trash my reputation like that saying that I turned the Wallabies into the most boring side in the world, that I was a control freak who paralysed all the players natural attacking flair because they feared if they made a mistake I would peg them out over an ant bed coated in honey? But you did do that, Eddie, didnt you many still bear the scars from the bull-ant bites? Yes, well you have to set the team parameters from the word go.

[Sign the Bone Growden Petition.]

Before a full house at one of rugby’s great theatres, the Wallabies face a huge World Cup match in Wales on Saturday. The position of the Wallabies is somewhat analogous to Rudd Labor’s over the Howard Government. Australia should win easily, except that the recent record of poor results between the nations at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium nags like hell.

If Australia is to be a serious contender for the 2007 Cup, this is the match in which the Wallabies must lay waste to the ghosts of northern tours past. We’ve won 11 of the last 13 Tests against Wales, but haven’t defeated the country at the Millennium Stadium in the two matches we’ve played there since 2001. Showing early glimpses of the post-Crazy Eddie era, we played a drawn Test, 29-all, at the ground last year.

The Wallabies are aiming up. The messages from the camp have all been similar. Rocky Elsom has been reported to have the “serious shits” about Wales’ record, and is “going for the jugular”. Nathan Sharpe has repeatedly said that the past mistake has been “taking the foot off their throat”. George Smith has shrugged off the home-ground advantage that Wales swindled out of the French in the IRB vote, and is reported to be looking forward to slaying Wales before 75,000 of its fans. Canadian assistant coach, former Wallaby Glen Ella, has predicted a “bloodbath”.

I’ll settle for a narrow win and an appreciable improvement. Knuckles has made some interesting changes. The return of Guy Shepherdson as tight-head prop in place of Al Baxter is to be welcomed, for what will be a major test for this pack, and a crucial base for building its confidence going into the finals. Expect a big game from Dan Vickerman, who’s playing his 50th match for the Wallabies. If we do smash the Joneses, Williamses, Thomases and Jenkinses early, Smithy will no doubt put his feet up to give Phil Waugh a much needed airing.

In the backs, the left wing’s a worry, where the replacement for Adam Ashley-Cooper, Drew Mitchell, hasn’t yet convinced that he’s mature enough for top level international rugby, even though he can excel in the lower grades. The All Blacks treat him as snack food, and he’s bound to be tested. On the other hand, it’s great to see Scott Staniforth (right) on the bench, who can take over if the kid gets trashed. If Mitchell stands up, watch for Knuckles to do the switch, giving Greegs an early shower in favour of Gits at 9 and Staniforth taking 12. This second-half re-orchestration of the backs has been sensational in its precious few outings to date.

Although the Welsh will be prepared to die on their pitch, the Wallabies will go in firm favourites and we’ve got good reason to be confident. All the players should be better for their Japan romp, where they looked the goods, and everything about the team seems in fine fettle. Perhaps just to annoy John O’Neil, Knuckles is even talking about staying on as coach! The stars look well set. Yet, like Rudd Labor, there can be no chicken counting. Until the job’s done, discipline is at a premium.

Go the Wallabies!

Crazy Eddie Watch #2: Dig this. Eddie “calculated that that scrums took up no more than eight minutes of playing time and so he would devote precisely eight minutes of training time to the set-piece.” What next? Eddie calculated that the players spent more time training than playing and so he would devote the games to training?

Update: A 32-20 win at Cardiff will do me, anytime! Good show Barnsey. Boy Wonder had a first-half blinder. Cliffy Palu also stood up. Much to be digested … later. The immediate takeaway: hurdle jumped.

Crazy Eddie Watch #3: From the Oz: “Connolly’s concession that Barnes’ current form hadn’t warranted selection earned him another media pilloring, but the sub-text clearly was that Barnes was left so confused and hesitant after constantly being tongue-lashed by Eddie Jones that he ended up showing nothing at all for the Queensland Reds. ‘He said he felt like he had been standing in a mud puddle at the Reds,’ said Connolly…”

Crazy Eddie Watch #4: From Tim Horan: “Before the tournament, former Wallabies and Queensland coach Eddie Jones questioned the durability of Australia’s forwards, in particular backrowers Rocky Elsom and Palu.”

[Sign the Bone Growden Petition.]

Time allowing, I’m aiming to blog the Rugby World Cup, with a minimum of one post before each Wallaby match, updated with the result. For the duration, I will live in a Sydney Morning Herald free-zone, as I refuse to share the tournament with the bias of Fairfax CEO David Kirk and the loathsome Greg Growden. All rugby fans are urged to do likewise.

It felt strange. I’ve bought the Australian many times. Indeed, I bought all the Sydney and national papers daily, frequently along with papers from other states, for decades. Yet, never before have I gone out to buy, and only buy, the Australian, as I did this morning. I’m glad I did. The 20-page 2007 Rugby World Cup Souvenir Edition (not online) is of a quality well above the rubbish served up by the All Black Morning Herald earlier this week. Wayne Smith, Bret Harris and Mark Ella are a big cut above the appalling Kirk-Growden crew.

To the action. As we stand on the precipice of the 6th World Cup, let’s be clear. Australia is not expected to win its third William Webb Ellis trophy, or “Bill”. The All Blacks are, and are fully entitled to be, hot favourites. Behind them, I rate France because of the home ground advantage – provided it can get through its “pool of death”, where France faces both Ireland and Argentina. Although neither South Africa nor England can be written off, and while Wales, Ireland and the Argies are also to be fully respected, I rate the Wallabies the best outside chance.

Following the coaching change from Crazy Eddie Jones last year, Australia’s international rugby form began to come back in 2007, when the Wallabies were the only team in the world to defeat the All Blacks. Defence is at a premium in the Cup, and the Wallaby defence is among the world’s best, if not the best. Likewise, our line-out is top class, thanks largely to Dan Vickerman (right), giving us an attacking set-piece. We also have valuable Cup-winning experience. The scrum is our weakness, but has improved such that we might now expect it to hold in top company.

The key to this Cup, I suspect, will be the contest at the breakdown. In attack, we have to offload in the tackle, or go into either rolling maul or pick and drive formations. The days of simply rolling over to set up quick phases are gone. Everyone is awake to this tactic, and hence the oppositions are refusing to commit players to Wallaby breakdowns, leaving them free to crowd our halves out. This means that we have to either keep our movements going through offloads, or purposefully force the oppositions to commit players. In defence, we must treat the breakdown as a base for launching counter-attacks.

But the grand strategies are for the weeks ahead. Tomorrow night the Wallabies face Japan in their pool opener. The bar should not be set too high. All the Wallabies need do first up is find their feet and feel out their combinations. A 20-30 points winning margin and an intact defensive performance will suffice. We can leave the 100-nil all guns blazing approach to the pool games for the All Blacks. The rhythm the Wallabies should be looking for is a gradual building of momentum through the tournament, with our standard lifting to meet the competition as it intensifies.

Knuckles has made a smart decision in giving young Berrick Barnes a start off the bench. There’s no question that the Wallaby ace is the wizard named Stephen “Bernie” Larkham at No 10 (right). But watching Bernie play is in equal parts enthralling and nerve-wracking, given that he’s both injury prone and heavily targeted by the opposition defence. An early shower for the maestro in favour of his Cup understudy is the way to go first up, especially as Barnes won his selection despite poor form this year and needs time on the paddock. I also hope Stephen Hoiles and Adam Freier get at least the lion’s share of the second half.

After a promising 2006, Barnes’ poor recent form was almost certainly due to Queensland having had the grave misfortune of being coached by Crazy Eddie. In this light, a story about Al Baxter in today’s Australian is one of the most heartening to come out of the Wallaby camp. Like a victim of post-traumatic stress disorder, Baxter has become one of the first players to speak publicly about the harrowing experience of the Crazy Eddie era. It’s a fascinating glimpse of what I expect will be a lot more to come. With “the Wallaby Work Index” now mercifully in the bin, the “feeling amongst the squad at the moment” says Baxter, “is the best I’ve ever felt.”

The story augers well. Let the great battle commence. Go the Wallabies!

Update: Whacko! In a sensational tournament opener, Argentina smacked host nation France 17-12! Go the Pumas! The pool of death, indeed! Go Ireland!

Update: A good Wallaby opener. 91-3 and 13 tries to – more importantly – nil. This was the leg stretch that the Wallabies needed. The rampaging Rocky Elsom (right) was a great sight. The Rock had a sensational Super 14 followed by a less spectacular Test season. Tonight, he looked set for the big Cup that he has to have. The forwards showed discipline. Smithy scored the try of the match for mine, with a tackle and a steal in which he freakily never left his feet. So far, so excellent.

Update: Justin Harrison assesses the Wales match.

Update: Growden-Haters Unite! You can sign the Bone Growden Petition here.