Consumer medicine information: a short course of parody

A while back I blogged about the spate of mandated product information when one buys medicine.  I just got a scrip from the chemist with a new format consumer information in it and I’m afraid I’m pretty pissed off with what an organised piece of stupidity it really is.

Previously I wrote this.

What depresses me is that this is not hard. All it takes is to try seriously to be useful, rather than to follow a procedure. If governments can’t do this kind of thing – or rather bugger this kind of thing up – it is depressing to think of how much more limited their usefulness is than it might otherwise be.

This one reads as a kind of send up of usefulness. Virtually everything it says is a kind of joke. Some of my favourite passages.

Do not take NAPROSYN if you have
an allergy to:
• NAPROSYN or any ingredients
listed at the end of this leaflet . . .

Ask your doctor if you have any
questions why NAPROSYN has
been prescribed for you. [Now there's an idea!]

If you take this medicine after the
expiry date has passed, it may not
work as well.

If you are not sure if you should
start taking NAPROSYN, talk to
your doctor.

Follow all directions given to you by
your doctor or pharmacist carefully.

Giving to the wealthy

I’m not much of a fan of giving to wealthy causes. Like private schools for the well healed. I was asked to attend an interview to see if I’d go on the Council of my daughter’s private school – which I said I would. I was then asked if I was Jewish (it’s an Anglican School) and said that I wasn’t but that I was a bit shocked to be asked. I didn’t bore the Principal with the details of my religious status as a lapsed atheist. Anyway with that apparently smoothed over I was invited to an evening which turned out to be hard core fund raising.

A donation of 20K seemed in order, but was not forthcoming. And for whatever reason my candidature didn’t proceed any further. (I also opined on a tour of the campus that I thought it would be a pity if they ripped out the only remaining grass covered oval and replaced it with synthetic grass, no matter how much truer it made they hockey balls travel.)

Today I got an invitation to give money to Ormond College where I spent a year. It was cleverly crafted – written to me by someone in my year with a personal note to me. This was my chance to make a difference for the next generation. I could contribute to allowing someone hard of means to attend the College. Well that’s better than contributing to someone easy of means I guess. Anyway it transpired that to qualify, this person who was hard of means had to be someone whose parents had attended Ormond. And yes, they might have been hard of means, but then they might just have been good at minimising their income. I decided to pass.

The taxes that keep on giving

Measuring the Effects of the 1991 Federal Alcohol Tax Increase, Philip J. Cook and Christine Piette Durrance

“[A tax induced increase of 6 percent in alcohol prices] resulted in a reduction of 4.7 percent in injury deaths nationwide.”

ecause consumers reduce alcohol consumption in response to price increases, rising excise taxes on alcohol are associated with reduced levels of alcohol abuse and the related consequences for public health and safety. In The Virtuous Tax: Lifesaving and Crime-Prevention Effects of the 1991 Federal Alcohol-Tax Increase (NBER Working Paper No. 17709), authors Philip Cook and Christine Piette Durrance estimate the effects of a change in the federal tax on alcohol that took place on January 1, 1991. The federal government doubled the tax on beer and raised tax rates on wine and spirits as well, and alcohol prices jumped an average of 6 percent (adjusting for overall inflation) nationwide.

The authors find that this price increase resulted in a reduction of 4.7 percent in injury deaths nationwide during the first year. Both violent and property crime also declined after this increase in the federal tax on alcohol. Violent crime — especially robbery, aggravated assault, and rape — was apparently more sensitive to the level of alcohol consumption within a state than property crime. Among the category of property crimes, burglary and motor vehicle theft rates were most sensitive to a state’s per capita alcohol consumption after the tax increase. The authors’ results demonstrate that the alcohol-price elasticity for several health and safety outcomes is closely related to average alcohol consumption.

Some low hanging fruit for countercyclical investment: maybe next time . . .

Though our fiscal stimulus was exemplary (except by the standards of The Australian Newspaper which requires 20,000 investments to all go off without a hitch), there was one area where I argued at the time, that could have been improved. For reasons that are a tad mysterious but almost certainly related to market failure, the funding of small to medium sized enterprises and venture capital goes into hibernation during a downturn.

This doesn’t make any sense and the government should lean against this wind, putting more effort into such investment during downturns and recouping its equity or tax revenue with less assistance during the upswing.

I don’t know if the OECD suggests this somewhere in its report, but, though it finds it’s a major problem it doesn’t suggest any solutions in the press release to its new report which corroborates the phenomenon over the current downturn in a wide cross-section of countries.

High levels of public debt can massively reduce growth: or so says Rogoff and the Reinharts

Debt Overhangs: Past and Present by Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff

Abstract:

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90% for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and other more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with growth over one percent lower than during other periods. Perhaps the most striking new finding here is the duration of the average debt overhang episode. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. Five of the six shorter episodes were immediately after World Wars I and II. Across all 26 cases, the average duration in years is about 23 years. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. We find that growth effects are significant even in the many episodes where debtor countries were able to secure continual access to capital markets at relatively low real interest rates. That is, growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates.

Beyond Vox Pop Democracy: Deepening democracy in the internet age

Herewith the text of my talk on Ockham’s Razor this morning. It is from a longer essay which you can find here, boiled down so that it could be read in the 12 minutes or so one gets on Ockham’s Razor.

I.

Shortly after Barack Obama became the first US president to build his campaign around online social media, his new Administration held an online ‘brainstorming’ session seeking ideas for making government “more transparent, participatory, and collaborative”. Participants in the Online brainstorming felt unconstrained by these terms and pursued their own pet ideas, and/or voted others ideas up or down a ladder of popularity.

With a rerun of the Great Depression in the offing, what was uppermost in the public mind? Legalising marijuana topped the pops on the brainstorming site followed by releasing Barack Obama’s birth certificate.

Welcome to Vox Pop democracy. The tendency is intensifying with ‘shock jocks’ spreading a culture of narcissistic entitlement and the internet hosting ideological echo chambers where people nurse their resentment and hostilities to their ideological opponents.

In the US, the conjunction of big money from the top and the bottom up power of the internet is making things worse. In 2000 leading Republican candidates for president paid lip-service to the scientific consensus on global warming. This year the Tea Party has marginalised such views and the remaining candidates wear their intransigence on action against climate change as a badge of honour. Continue reading

At last a pop diva who isn’t channelling hookers and porn

I heard this song for the first time this evening. No doubt I’m one of the last to hear it – I certainly come after nearly 30 million YouTube plays. Anyway, it’s a great song. What’s nice is that it seems like a throwback to the time when women pop stars didn’t take virtually all their repertoire of moves and clothes from pole dancers, hookers and porn stars up there in their fuck me platform shoes. Strange that this is the post-feminist world. (That’s not a dig at feminism by the way, and offered in sorrow rather than anger.)

I wonder why it is that wonderful singers like Beyonce most particularly, singers who despite their extraordinary talents seem quite modest nevertheless, feel compelled to the most exaggerated kind of erotic pornographic carry on. Even in the case of really wholesome girls like Jessica Mauboy one can feel the gravitational pull of the genre even though she does a good job of resisting it.

In any event amidst the formulaic music and pouting of today, I really loved pretty much everything about this video.  Great song, great beat, and some actual levity, rather than pouting.

And paradoxically, it’s sexy as hell (IMO anyway). Puts me in mind of why I like the Beatles as I explained in this post a long long time ago, I can still remember how, That music used to make me smile - or something like that.

 

Herding Part Two: Superstars

This wasn’t supposed to be the theme of part two (Part One is here) but Jessica Irvine’s recent and timely column on superstardom and One Direction prompted me to add my two cents’ worth – well someone else’s two cents’ worth but at least inserted by me.

First; highlights from Jessica’s column:

US labour market economist Sherwin Rosen in his 1981 paper ”The Economics of Superstars” identified two preconditions that lead to superstardom. First, every customer in the market must want to buy the good supplied by the best producer. The second condition for the birth of a superstar is that the good provided must be able to be distributed cheaply to all customers in the market. You don’t see superstar plumbers, because their services are only available to one geographic area.

Rosen’s theory of superstardom as an efficient outcome of the market was challenged by another US economist, Moshe Adler, who pointed out that whether people preferred one singer over the other was not necessarily determined by how talented they were. There is, after all, no standard unit to measure increments of talent. The key thing about groups like One Direction, according to Adler, is not that they are the most talented – for such a thing can never be measured – but that they are simply the most popular.

According to Adler, consumer desires are not innate preferences – as standard economics assumes – but are influenced strongly by society. We desire the same art, culture and music that is desired by other people.

To which I would only add the graph below which features in Paul Ormerod’s forthcoming book. In a controlled experiment with people listening to music if they were not ‘networked’ which is to say they didn’t know what other people thought was good, there was a fairly big inherent difference between songs. If they were networked, they ‘herded’ strongly.

Typical outcome of the music download experiments; number of each of the 48 songs downloaded over the course of an experiment, participants only know the names of the song and band and can listen to songs before deciding whether or not to download. The average number of downloads is set equal to 100 for comparative purposes

Same experiment as before except the participants know the number of previous downloads of each of the songs before they decide themselves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course the upshot of this is that we’re all madly herding from one place to another, but the extent to which there’s signal in the noise of our herding is greatly attenuated.  Further; large amounts of rent are being expended trying to get people’s attention with marketing to get into people’s headspace and win the battle for the next hit.