Steve Jobs, climate quackery and democracy

If you discovered that you had cancer would you (a) find a doctor who is an expert in treating your disease and follow their advice, or (b) attempt to devise your own treatment by reading about cancer on the internet?

According to some sources, Apple founder Steve Jobs may have shortened his life by relying too heavily on (b). Martina Cartwright at Psychology Today writes, "When Mr. Jobs was first diagnosed in 2003, he chose to pursue alternative therapies, including acupuncture, herbal, diet and fruit juice therapy and spiritual consultations. Many of these therapies he found on the Internet."

In the Weekend Australian Cassandra Wilkinson cites Jobs as an example of the "countless tragic cases of people delaying or denying medical treatment in favour of quackery. Jobs is only a high-profile example of a growing problem." Andrew Bolt concurs: "’alternative medicines’ are not just a danger to our health but an insult to our reason."

Also in the Australian, Brendan O’Neill complains that climate change sceptics can’t get a fair hearing because activists attack their motives rather than engaging with their arguments. This "stinks of intellectual cowardice", says O’Neil. "Instead of taking sceptics up on what they say in public, campaigners dig for dirt behind the scenes."

O’Neill wants a free public debate where "all of us can hear ideas, assess their worth and accept or reject them." What he doesn’t want is activists wasting everybody’s time by uncovering which climate change sceptics are being bankrolled by oil companies.

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The Herald/Age Lateral Economics Index of Wellbeing

Herewith my op ed from the Herald and Age today.

What is the good life and are we living it?

Assessing and measuring wellbeing has vexed us since ancient times. But a funny thing happened on the modern world’s way to the answer. The metric that economists used to dampen down the business cycle – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – received such prominence that it ‘went viral’ as we say these days. It became the default measure of national progress.

But there’s lots wrong with GDP as a measure of economic wellbeing let alone more general wellbeing. Measuring gross activity, it ignores the growth and depreciation of assets – such as buildings, equipment, natural resources like farmland and mineral deposits, biodiversity and clean air. And that’s not to mention the greatest asset of all – our knowhow.

Moreover GDP is measured by money changing hands. So converting bread, mince and salad into a hamburger increases GDP in McDonalds but not at home. More starkly, an evening of passion and pleasure only adds to wellbeing as measured by GDP if it happens in a bordello! More broadly still, GDP takes no account of the distribution of income or of our physical or social wellbeing.

But considering how different all these phenomena are, how can we possibly measure their sum impact on national wellbeing in a single number? Because it would ‘dumb down’ complex issues, economics Nobel Laureate Amatya Sen initially refused to participate in the construction of a single index of human development to help guide development in poorer countries. But he relented because he appreciated that, however unsatisfactory a single wellbeing index might be, it was better than the alternative. Given the thirst for simple answers, the alternative is even more dumbing down as would occur if GDP yet again filled the vacuum. Continue reading

Why is it so?

I cam across this post in my morning Google reader perusal:

A ballot measure that StateImpact Ohio (a creation of local public media and NPR) describes as “a referendum on a constitutional amendment…aimed at keeping the national health care reform law from taking [e]ffect” won in all 88 counties in Ohio. In 81 of the counties, it won by a margin of at least 20 percentage points. Statewide, it won by 32 points (66 to 34 percent).

Ohio is a northern swing State not a so-called “Red State” so you’d have to regard this vote as a significant measure of the apparent unpopularity of Obamacare.  I can’t help asking why?  I’m not au fait with the details of Obamacare, but in general terms I thought it was not all that dissimilar (at least in philosophy) to Australia’s Medicare system i.e. universal health care cover.  Why then the almost diametrically opposed outcomes in terms of public support?  Australia’s Medicare system was so popular after introduction that the Coalition was forced to reverse its initial opposition to it and has promised ever since to retain it.

Are Americans so radically different from Australians?  Or is Obamacare a radically different or badly flawed initiative?  I simply don’t know enough about it to have an opinion, so I’m rather hoping some more erudite Troppo readers can advise.

BTW Despite rumblings and an application before the US Supreme Court, it doesn’t look very likely that Obamacare will be held unconstitutional.

Thread of doom play for the day: Size does matter

Disappointed Troppo readers everywhere have gradually come to a realisation – upon which I came clean on in a recent thread.  Troppo is really an ‘eyeballs’ play as we say in the trade and things haven’t been this good for eyeballs since Tim Blair sent some brownshirts our way a long while ago.  Anyway, it turns out that economic development has a surprisingly robust relationship with penis size. As this paper shows. Discuss with relation to any rocks you would like to get off. Baseless accusations are encouraged – though participants are reminded about our point of difference here at Club Pony – they’re not compusory.

Do Walmart Supercenters make you fat (hint – a bit!)

From Supersizing supercenters? The impact of Walmart Supercenters on body mass index and obesity, by Charles Courtemanche and Art Carden, Journal of Urban Economics 69 (2011) 165–181

Researchers have linked the rise in obesity to technological progress reducing the opportunity cost of food consumption and increasing the opportunity cost of physical activity. We examine this hypothesis in the context of Walmart Supercenters, whose advancements in retail logistics have translated to sub- stantial reductions in the prices of food and other consumer goods. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System matched with Walmart Supercenter entry dates and locations, we examine the effects of Supercenters on body mass index (BMI) and obesity. We account for the endogeneity of Walmart Supercenter locations with an instrumental variables approach that exploits the unique geo- graphical pattern of Supercenter expansion around Walmart’s headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas. An additional Supercenter per 100,000 residents increases average BMI by 0.24 units and the obesity rate by 2.3% points. These results imply that the proliferation of Walmart Supercenters explains 10.5% of the rise in obesity since the late 1980s, but the resulting increase in medical expenditures offsets only a small portion of consumers’ savings from shopping at Supercenters.

Google Health: did it have to end this way?

I never fully understood Google Health.  It seems to be a consumer product, inviting you to input your data and track your health, set health goals and so on. Certainly there could be some benefits in this and in the aggregation of information, but the amount of effort maintaining all your records and doing so accurately boggles the mind.  I can’t see myself wanting to do it.

But its real power, surely, would come from the way in which it might operate as a unit patient record, and if it was going to operate as one of those, you needed to get buy in from health systems. Then you could really be cooking with gas with the system inputting data, you doing likewise as well as controlling the permissions that allow people to access your data at different levels of intimacy. With a lot of people included in the system the data would really be powerful when aggregated.

Given that, I thought Google’s strategy would be to build the best consumer app they could but then go hell for leather to get some health systems to interface with them.  Then once some health systems demonstrated the power of the approach, Google would be sitting on top of the incipient standard and – they’d be happy campers, and given that the health systems would not agree to do this without assurances of the portability of data, it’s hard to see how we all wouldn’t be happy campers. I don’t know how much they tried to engage health systems if at all.  They do talk about “adoption among certain groups of users like tech-savvy patients and their caregivers, and more recently fitness and wellness enthusiasts”.

“But” Google reports, “we haven’t found a way to translate that limited usage into widespread adoption in the daily health routines of millions of people,” and so they have just announced the closure of Google Health.

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