(Almost) Everyone loves Lincoln

Inaugurated on this day in 1861, Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States, is as popular as ever.

Movies: America’s 16th president features in two movies to be released this year. The first is a serious bio-pic by Steven Spielberg while the second is based on Seth Grahame-Smith’s 2010 novel Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.

Lincoln reincarnated: In 2003 Bob Carr told a radio interviewer that he was "Lincoln reincarnated". According to the Sydney Morning Herald’s Kelly Burke:

So aghast was his communications chief, Amanda Lampe, at the remark, she demanded the premier call the station and beg it be edited out of the interview. The station obliged.

Quotes: In the Weekend Australian Judith Sloan endorsed Lincoln’s view that the legitimate purpose of government is: "to do for the people what needs to be done, but which they can not, by individual effort, do at all, or do so well, for themselves".

The quote comes from a note titled On Government where Lincoln writes:

The legitimate object of government is to do for a community of people whatever they need to have done, but cannot do at all, or cannot so well do, for themselves, in their separate and individual capacities. In all that the people can individually do as well for themselves, government ought not to interfere. The desirable things which the individuals of a people cannot do, or cannot well do, for themselves, fall into two classes : those which have relation to wrongs, and those which have not. Each of these branch off into an infinite variety of subdivisions.

The first — that in relation to wrongs — embraces all crimes, misdemeanors ; and non-performance of contracts. The other embraces all which, in its nature, and without wrong, requires combined action, as public roads and highways, public schools, charities, pauperism, orphanage, estates of the deceased, and the machinery of government itself.

(Complete works : comprising his speeches, letters, state papers, and miscellaneous writings p 180 – see also p 178)

President Obama paraphrased Lincoln in his State of the Union Address in January. Australian opposition leader Tony Abbott did the same in a speech in February this year.

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Democracy and the art of motorcycle maintenance

A tough-talking, motorcycle-riding Texan, sociologist C Wright Mills is about as far from today’s stereotype of the latte-sipping left-wing intellectual as you’re likely to find. But even though he’s been dead for 50 years, you can still see his influence in the intellectual left today.

Fiercely independent, Mills wasn’t about to turn his life over to the system. If something affected him he wanted to be able to control it. On his first trip to Europe in 1956 he spend two weeks in the BMW factory in Munich earning a certificate in motorcycle repair. According to Dan Wakefield, he told his students they should build their own houses.

Mills had much the same attitude to democracy. The rise of corporations, centralised government and the mass media cut intellectuals off from their publics. Outside the family and the small community, communication had become top-down. Individual citizens no longer participate in the decisions that affect their lives and intellectuals are no longer able to lead and facilitate deliberations.

In his 1951 book White Collar Mills described the resulting sense of alienation: "On every hand the individual is confronted with seemingly remote organizations; he feels dwarfed and helpless before the managerial cadres and their manipulated and manipulative minions."

Mills saw intellectuals being absorbed into the system as minions. Taken up into government, the corporations and the universities, they became unable to think and act independently. Yet he would later argue that it was up to intellectuals — particularly young intellectuals — to change society. "Who is it that is getting disgusted with what Marx called all the old crap’?" he asked in 1960. "Who is it that is thinking and acting in radical ways? All over the world — in the bloc, outside the bloc and in between — the answer’s the same: it is the young intelligentsia."

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One of the challenges facing Greece

In 2007 Greece spent 9.9% of GDP on age pensions.  This was the fourth highest level of spending on pensions in the OECD (after Austria, Spain and Italy).  Australia spent 3.2% of GDP, the fifth lowest level of spending in the OECD (ahead of Iceland, Ireland, Korea and Mexico).   Greece also spends 2% of GDP on benefits for survivors, mainly widows, a level about 10 times as high as in Australia. The combined rate of employer and employee social security contributions is around 38% of the total wage bill.

But as we should all know by now the distribution of spending is important – as is the level of spending. And the distribution of spending is very different in Greece and Australia.

In Greece, pensions are provided through an earnings-related public scheme with two components plus a series of minimum pensions/social safety nets.  (The safety nets are very low – in 2008 if total net income from all sources was  less than EUR 7 750 you could get a benefit of around 230 EUR a month).

Effectively if your lifetime average earnings are less than 50% of the average wage, you get almost nothing from the public pension system.  If your incomes were above this level your gross replacement rate is about 97% of your earnings  – irrespective of your earnings.  Taking account of taxes makes the system marginally more progressive – net (after-tax) replacement rates range from 114% at half average earnings to around 104% at twice average earnings.

Yes, in Greece when you retire you can be better-off than when you are in work.  But of course most people don’t have full contribution histories. Moreover, the effective age of retirement in Greece exceeds that of Germany by about 27 months. Having said this, Greeks retire earlier than Germans after correcting for occupational distributions.

How is spending distributed?

The figure below shows spending on cash benefits to households with a head aged 65 years or over around 2005, comparing Australia and Greece.  Spending for each decile is calculated as a percentage of overall average household income in each country, so this is a measure of relative generosity.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

While Greece spends about three to four times as much on pensions as Australia relative to GDP, the bottom 30% of the Greek population receive lower relative pensions than the corresponding group in Australia.  In Australia the middle income older people get the highest public pensions – this reflects the fact that some of the people in the lower income groups are probably not as poor as they appear to be – because they have higher levels of assets which exclude them from receiving pensions.  In addition, even though the figures adjust for household size, the households in the middle are more likely to be couples rather than single people. However pensions paid to higher income groups are much more generous in Greece.

The second figure shows the same sort of comparisons for the overall transfer system.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here the comparison is more stark, because Australia spends a higher share of its total transfers on benefits to working age households, and these are more progressively distributed.  So in Australia a household in the second decile gets about 1.8 times the transfers paid in Greece.  In contrast in Greece households in the richest decile receive about 20 times as much as in Australia.  (Although this is relative to average household incomes, which are a lot higher in Australia than Greece.)

Despite spending a lot on age pensions, poverty in Greece amongst the aged is high – and this was before the crisis.

In July 2010 the Greek Parliament passed sweeping changes  to the pension system. The main changes included setting a basic state pension of 360 Euros per month for all regardless of contributions; reducing the replacement ratio to 64% for contributions-related primary pensions based on earnings over the entire working life (rather than the best five of the last 10 years), topped up as before by supplementary pensions; consolidating all types of pension funds into three: for employees, the self-employed and farmers; raising the retirement age to 65 for both men and women, with gradual transition over three to seven years for women and those in special job categories; raising the minimum early retirement age to 60, including for workers with 40 years of contributions and those in heavy and arduous professions, starting in 2011; reducing the maximum allowable pension; and severely reducing the list of jobs deemed heavy or unhealthy, and which thereby qualify for early retirement (starting in 2011).

On the surface, the introduction of a higher basic state pension and the reduction in the maximum allowable pension are likely to have a progressive impact.  The further pension cuts just announced mean that a person getting a monthly pension of 1,500 euros will face a reduction of 12 percent on the amount above 1,300 euros.

The effects of these changes may be more complex  to interpret, however.  Greece has a much higher share of multi-generation households than many other countries.  For example, nearly 46% of men aged 30 to 34 years in Greece live with their parents – compared to 6% in the Netherlands.  (Anyone who can find the comparable figures for Australia will get brownie points.) So pensioners living with adult children may be counted as living in relatively well-off households.-, but in some cases pensions will be cut for those who are also supporting newly unemployed younger people.

To end on a sombre note, the pension challenges facing Greece are by no means the most severe in Southern Europe, as can be shown by considering the how the distribution of all transfers compares across Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.

Krugman on “The Internal Contradictions of Mitt Romney”

And by “internal”, I mean in the same paragraph:

“This week, President Obama will release a budget that won’t take any meaningful steps toward solving our entitlement crisis,” Romney said in a statement e-mailed to reporters. “The president has failed to offer a single serious idea to save Social Security and is the only president in modern history to cut Medicare benefits for seniors”.

HT Paul Krugman

What’s with all the apologising?

Tom Watson's Twitter feedWe are all in Tom Watson’s debt for pursuing the corruption of the Murdoch press as vigorously as he has – and continues to. I have had some dealings with Tom arising from my involvement in the Government 2.0 Taskforce. In any event, in addition to continuing his pursuit of the Murdoch press he has just been caught up in a strange set of events. His intern, it seems took to his Twitter account when he was in a meeting and tweeted something which mentioned rape. If you mention rape this stirs up trouble.  And what the hell was she doing on his Twitter account? Who knows, but it was a very stupid thing to do, which she very quickly admitted on Twitter.

This caused the predictable avalanche of nonsense in the media. Tom acted pretty kindly, didn’t sack the silly idiot who had tweeted on his account, and then published this account. It ends in these propositions.

8. The intern has not been sacked nor was she ever going to be. She’s young. We all make mistakes.
9. I know her well enough to know she’ll never do this sort of thing again.
10. And yes, I know I should have logged out. I really do. Thank you to the people who pointed that out.
11. For those that have asked – all my tweets, other than the two this morning, are my own.
12. Though my account wasn’t technically ‘hacked’, yes, I do understand the irony of what happened.
13. Once again, I am sorry.

Now the British are different to us.  They’re more sticklers for form. So if Tom wants to apologise, then technically yes, the buck stops with him. He runs the office and ‘takes responsibility’ for what happens.

But beyond that?  He’s in his own office and I don’t agree that he ‘really should’ have assumed that one of his staff would hijack his online ID, even for a joke, just as he shouldn’t assume that she would forge his signature, or (for that matter) video a visiting guest on the dunny. As for ‘irony’ – Tom’s role as a minister in the Blair Government was to promote these online tools and train others in them. Well OK, admit the irony, but strictly speaking there’s not much irony. Someone stuffed up.

I can’t help thinking that a right leaning politician wouldn’t be bowing and scraping. Enough of the apologies Tom. Leave them to Rupert Murdoch – even if he doesn’t mean them.

 

Bailing out British Leyland – The Iron Lady’s feet of clay

British Leyland devoured billions pounds of taxpayer’s money before it was finally broken up and sold off. According to New York Times journalist Nelson Schwartz the Thatcher government’s bailout "remains the classic example of a futile government intervention."

Mrs Thatcher was unable to resist the car maker’s insatiable demands for cash. According to Schwartz, her government ended up handing over £3.6 billion (£11 billion adjusted for inflation) to keep the factories open. "On any rational commercial judgment, there were no good reasons for continuing to fund British Leyland", she concedes in her autobiography. The company was a high cost, low volume manufacturer in a world where low costs and high volumes were essential for success. So why did she do it? The "political realities had to be faced", she says, "BL had to be supported":

I knew that closure of the volume car business, with all that would mean for the West Midlands and the Oxford area, would not be politically acceptable to the Cabinet of the Party, at least in the short term. It would also be a huge cost to the Exchequer — perhaps not very different to the sort of sums BL was now seeking (p 120).

As political scientist Fiona McGillivray explains, no government could afford to allow British Leyland’s huge plant in Longbridge to close:

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Ron Paul is a socially tolerant left-wing radical?

“Oh, my goodness, the John Birch Society! … Is that bad? I have a lot of friends in the John Birch Society" (Texas congressman Ron Paul).

In Tuesday’s Sydney Morning Herald, Tom Switzer describes presidential hopeful Ron Paul as a socially tolerant free-market crusader whose views on foreign policy are indistinguishable from the views of those on the radical left. Not everyone who knows Paul’s record would agree.

On Switzer’s account, Paul is a "true fiscal conservative" and "prophet" who wants to call an end to America’s costly military overreach:

Paul’s most endearing quality is that he has sincere beliefs – support for social tolerance, free-market capitalism, and a healthy scepticism of foreign military adventurism – and he is not afraid to yell them out. That sets him apart from the pack in this age of focus groups and media spin.

But in the New Republic, Will Wilkinson expresses a strikingly different view: "If you were an evil genius determined to promote the idea that libertarianism is a morally dubious ideology of privilege poorly disguised as a doctrine of liberation, you’d be hard pressed to improve on Ron Paul."

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