Sorcery and the black Hatfields and McCoys

The Hatfield clan circa 1897

I had a long chat recently with an old mate from my politics days who I hadn’t seen for some time.  The conversation turned to Aboriginal affairs issues, as it does when you’ve both worked with and for Indigenous groups for the best part of thirty years.

Somewhat surprisingly for an aging lefty, my old mate’s attitude was quite similar to mine (and that of another old lefty in Bob Durnan who I often mention in posts like this).  The former left-liberal approach to Aboriginal affairs, based as it was on “self-determination” and symbolic issues like treaties, apologies and recognition of customary law, just didn’t work.  The plight of Aboriginal people actually became progressively worse by just about any measure.  Of course, some supporters of that approach continue to argue that self-determination was only ever tried in a half-hearted, piecemeal, stop-start fashion.  There’s probably some truth in that , but you still can’t argue that those policies even remotely resembled a raging success.

Similarly, the Howard Intervention  and its relabelling by the ALP government as “Closing the Gap” has also enjoyed underwhelming success to date despite multi-billion dollar spending, as a recent article by Indigenous legal academic Larissa Behrendt highlights.  Part of the problem, as Behrendt argues, is the “top-down”, prescriptive, paternalistic nature of the federal programs.  As Behrendt observes, successive Productivity Commission reports (hardly a bleeding heart, left-leaning organisation) have found that the programs that work in Aboriginal communities are those based on consultation, partnership, mutual respect and communities “taking ownership” of initiatives.  That must not obviate acountability or efficiency, but the two are not incompatible.

However, I strongly suspect after nearly 30 years of observation that the lack of a  “partnership” approach per se isn’t the main problem.   The principal and possibly insoluble problem is that key central aspects of traditional Indigenous culture are simply fundamentally incompatible with a contemporary, post-industrial, western capitalist individualistic culture like that of the dominant Australian community.  However, as soon as you make such a statement, other than privately and sotto voce, you end up being howled down as a “racist” (or at the very least an arrogant xenophobe).  Even undeniably well-motivated, knowledgeable experts like veteran anthropologist Peter Sutton have experienced this backlash after daring to critique aspects of Aboriginal culture.  Here is Sutton talking about the inherent extreme violence of Aboriginal society:

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Why governments should not insure against disasters

I admire SA independent senator Nick Xenophon hugely. He’s a rare combination of brains, enterprise and principle. I knew him at Adelaide University; he had all those qualities then, and he seems to have kept them intact over the quarter-century since.

But I have wondered for weeks why he is so keen to have the states insure against natural disasters.

Today I may have found the answer to my puzzle. Xenophon is being advised by former insurance industry executive John Tsouroutis. When Malcolm Farr profiled Tsouroutis in a recent article for The Punch, the picture emerged of a bloke who thinks outside private insurance is always good.

This seems to me exactly wrong. At a government level, outside private insurance is almost always bad.

Before we go any further, it pays to remember that insurance only spreads risk rather than eliminating it. Remember also that private insurers need to make profits.  (I make these obvious points here only because they seem to have disappeared in the debate over state insurance.) Insurance is likely to cost you more than not being insured.  You don’t insure to save money. You insure to avoid unlikely episodes that would cause you too much stress to fund yourself when they happened. For instance, you insure your family against the chances of its principal breadwinner being killed or disabled, because your savings won’t cover the costs of this sort of unlikely but potentially devastating blow.

So I was startled to hear that many state governments currently take out natural disaster insurance. As a general principle, governments should not insure against Bad Things, be they floods, bushfires or earthquakes – or, for that matter, recessions. Not only should Queensland not take out such insurance, but the other states should stop doing so.

And here’s why: Continue reading

Top End Politics goes troppo again


I should concede that the analogy drawn in this post between Dave Tollner and Tony Abbott is an imperfect one (image from NT News)

Northern Territory politics is nearly always very silly but equally unfailingly highly entertaining.  It was the inspiration for the “Troppo” in this blog’s name and is best explained or at least described by the combination of heat, humidity, rotting mangoes and associated insouciant mañana lifestyle that makes Territorians behave very strangely at times especially in the buildup and wet season. What with a very long wet buildup and an even wetter wet season, the opposition Country Liberal Party’s latest bout of infighting is a vintage example of the phenomenon.

Just 18 months ago most observers would have put the CLP at short odds-on to win government in a canter at the next election due in 2012.  Labor appeared to be dead men walking to almost as great an extent as their NSW counterparts.  Chief Minister Paul Henderson had opportunistically deposed the extraordinarily successful and popular Clare Martin by riding on the coat-tails of John Howard’s equally opportunistic attempt to create an electoral wedge by announcing the Indigenous Intervention on the patently spurious excuse that Martin had failed to move promptly to implement the Little Children Are Sacred recommendations which Howard and Mal Brough then proceeded to completely ignore anyway.

Hendo then narrowly survived the 2008 NT election that he had been expected to win easily, ending up governing with the narrowest possible majority of 13/12. Mild-mannered CLP Opposition Leader Terry Mills had almost led his party to a totally unexpected victory, a bit like Tony Abbott at federal level but without the bombast or budgie smugglers.

Then, after a bewildering series of soap opera Ministerial and Party resignations and temper tantrums, Hendo’s attenuated Labor team was reduced to just 12 rather puzzled and shell-shocked pollies in minority government with Independent and former chook farmer Gerry Wood.

Most people saw it as only a matter of time until Mills and the CLP took over.  But they were wrong.  Gerry Wood, despite an image as a conservative-leaning eccentric, proved to be a much more reliable ally for the ALP than most had expected. Probably more importantly, Hendo fluked on a master-stroke by appointing wise old apparatchik and senior public servant Dennis Bree as Secretary to Cabinet then seconding him as Chief of Staff.  Bree imposed a sense of discipline and purpose that the Cabinet and Caucus hadn’t previously possessed even in Clare Martin’s halcyon days, although he has no doubt been helped by the party’s near death experience and the certain knowledge that one major slip means instant electoral annihilation.

However, this discipline born of desperation seems to have done the trick.  Although the NT hasn’t been without ongoing public fiascos since then, most have been unresolved hangovers from the pre-Bree era.  Since Bree was appointed Ministers have mostly stayed disciplined and on-message and previous cock-ups like the SIHIP program (a massive federally funded indigenous housing scheme under the post-Intervention Closing the Gap concept) have been progressively put back on track; a chaotic power system seems to have become more reliable; and the economy has largely recovered from the GFC, although tourism remains fairly subdued under the impact of a strong Australian dollar.

All in all, if the massive INPEX LNG project gets the final go-ahead later this year, you’d cautiously favour Labor to actually win the 2012 election fairly comfortably, an unimaginable outcome only a few short months ago.  If a week is a long time in politics then 18 months is an eternity.

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Crime and punishment – umpteenth chapter

Recent NT News discussion on the perennial topic of crime and punishment seems to have generated more heat than light.  Chief Justice Trevor Riley wrote an excellent piece pointing out basic facts about the NT criminal justice system, not least the fact that NT judges and magistrates are actually tougher on crime than any other part of Australia.  However, that hasn’t stopped a succession of subsequent correspondents from asserting that judges are “out of touch” and adopting an excessively lenient approach.

Former Chief Minister Shane Stone even weighed into the debate with a piece advocating re-adoption of an expanded mandatory sentencing regime, ignoring the fact that crime in relevant categories actually increased while the last version of mandatory sentencing was in force and fell when it was repealed.

Territorians are justified in being worried about crime.  Crime rates are twice as high here as the Australian average in most categories; in some they are significantly higher.  Moreover, things are getting worse in some categories.  Crime rates for homicides, house break-ins and sexual assaults have not changed over the last 6 years, but non-sexual assaults have increased by a disturbing 73% from already high rates, armed robberies by 58% and commercial break-ins and vehicle thefts by 71%.

There are limits to the extent any NT government can reduce crime rates, because we have a very young population with a high indigenous component and high levels of alcohol consumption.  All are factors associated with higher crime rates.  However that doesn’t deny that we can do better than at present.

Research and practical experience indicate that crime is not deterred by longer and longer prison sentences, but that increasing the certainty of being caught and meaningfully punished has a measurable crime-reducing effect.  On the other hand, imprisoning young first offenders for short periods tends to increase crime rates.  Most first offenders never commit another crime, but for some the “school for crime” effect of prison may outweigh any deterrent effect.  That’s why judges view imprisonment as a last resort for young first offenders, even where the offence committed may seem one that warrants imprisonment.  It depends whether you view crime reduction or “just deserts” as the main aim of sentencing.

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Mango madness and letters to the editor

Letter to the Editor NT News:

I don’t hold any brief for the CLP, or Labor for that matter (although I did a long time ago).  However I have strong moral objections when I see someone’s reputation trashed unfairly.  That especially includes politicians, a human sub-species about whom most people love to believe the worst even though most pollies I’ve met on both sides of the fence are thoroughly decent, hard-working people with a strong sense of public service.

Now that the transcript of CLP leader Terry Mills’ conversation with former Lingiari candidate Leo Abbott has been published in full on the NT News website, I can’t help asking what the fuss was all about?

If that’s all that was said, there was certainly no “bribery” on the part of Terry Mills, or anything else that could possibly form a foundation for an allegation of corruption or illegality of any sort.  I don’t even think there was anything ethically or morally questionable about anything Mills said.  It was an entirely appropriate conversation for a Party leader to have with a problematic candidate who he was trying to persuade to step aside.

In the circumstances I can’t help wondering why the NT News continues to publish a story with a headline like “Mills secret chat to hand Abbott a deal”?

Random thoughts and gripes

I couldn’t agree more with FOI expert Peter Timmins about the latest Wikileaks “disclosures”.  I have no idea whether Assange is a rapist or not, but he’s certainly succeeded in setting the cause of public sector whistleblowing back by a decade or more.  The documents so far disclosed indicate little or no public misfeasance by the US or anyone else, so there is simply no legitimate public interest in their disclosure.

Old leftie columnist Ken Davidson reckons Labor’s Victorian defeat is all down to its failure to invest in suburban rail infrastructure.  Not being a local I have no idea whether he’s correct, but as far as I can see there’s no other obvious explanation for the defeat of a mostly competent government, apart from a generalised “it’s time” factor and perhaps Justin Madden’s arrogant handling of the Planning portfolio.  The latter at least is arguably symptomatic of a government needing a spell on the Opposition benches to vanquish accumulated hubris.

Davidson’s hypothesis brings into focus Nicholas Gruen’s proposal for an independent RBA-style body to certify responsible levels of public debt, thereby making borrowing for productive public infrastructure politically feasible.  It’s difficult to see any other workable way of ameliorating the simplistic public perception fostered by Howard and Costello that public debt is always and for all purposes evil.  On the other hand the Gillard government’s refusal to agree to a Productivity Commission cost-benefit analysis of the National Broadband Network inspires no confidence that it could be trusted to exercise responsible stewardship over infrastructure spending if that public perception is ever broken down.

Sinclair Davidson’s posts are often worth reading.  It’s a shame his compulsion to play the Coalition apologist so often gets the better of him.

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Abolish NT self-government?

The release in federal Parliament yesterday of the report into last year’s Montara oil spill off Australia’s north-west coast is just the latest chapter in a saga of NT government incompetence:

“Industry, government and regulators must be absolutely committed to a culture of high safety standards and environmental protection within a framework of continuous improvement.”

Mr Ferguson also told Parliament the Northern Territory’s Department of Resources failed to adequately regulate operation of the oil well.

“The commissioner found that the Northern Territory Department of Resources was not a sufficiently diligent regulator, adopting a minimalist approach to its regulatory responsibilities,” he said.

“The way in which the regulator conducted its responsibilities gave it little chance of discovering PTTEP poor practices.” …

“At the heart of this matter is the failure of the operator and the failure of the regulator to adhere to this regime.

“Montara was preventable.

“If either, or preferably both PTTEP AA or the Northern Territory designated authority had done their jobs properly and complied with requirements, the Montara blowout would never have happened.”

Mr Ferguson says the Government will move to have a single, national offshore regulator of the industry.

The conclusion eerily echoes that of the Howard government in 2007 after the appalling child abuse revelations of the Little Children Are Sacred report led to the federal Intervention.  As Indigenous academic Marcia Langton more recently observed:

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