Well whether they win or not the ‘Colliwobbles’ come from another time, long, long ago in the late sixties and early seventies when the Collies used to finish first and then not win, either through some bad luck (64, 66, 70) or through peaking a bit early or going into the finals in a form slump. It was pretty depressing. We’ve lost lots of GFs since then, but we’ve been the worse side in the GF, so it’s not so surprising that we lost. GFs kind of do that. They tend to select the better side.

Anyway, this time we’re the best side, having put on a half of football against Geelong last week that needed to be seen to be believed. (I saw it and believed it). We will win again tomorrow unless:

• something nasty happens. An early injury reduces your chances of winning by around 17%, two injuries is worse etc
• the Sainters close down our forward line. This is quite possible.  They choke their enemy pretty effectively. And as I’ve said, there are some things – like intelligent leads, that we pretty much do without on our forward line. If we start kicking lots of points, end up taking our shots from the boundary line and don’t seem to be able to find forwards, St Kilda are in the game and may close us down and then beat us.
• St Kilda’s big forwards, particularly Nick Riewoldt, have a good day. Collingwood’s backline is one of the best in the business, but it has a weakness – subduing big forwards (sigh)

But the most likely outcome is a comfortable win.  I can hardly believe I’m saying that. I can certainly say I’ve not expected to win a GF since 1990. And guess what happened then.  We won.

All Troppo readers are required to have some slight sympathy for me tomorrow – unless you barrack for the Sainters, like my friend from Harkaway Primary School, John Chandler.

But the name “Barry Breen” may not be mentioned.

Or two.

Well folks, here’s my report from the Preliminary Final hot from comments on my last post; Dr Peach will commentate for food, or at least for tickets to the Grand Final.

It was a crushing win.

The Pies took the game to a new place as they say. On the other hand one could overdo this. From Cloke’s first goal which was a chancy affair despite being shot from 30 metres out directly in front, the Pies were dead lucky – with the off-break showing just how lucky. At the other end of the ground the Cats were very unlucky. If the degree of luck had been reversed Geelong would never have been out of the game, even though they were dominated all round the ground. Their silky smooth handball was a joy to watch when it got going and showed just how little they need to stay in a game.

But luck was a more important ingredient than you’ll read about in any of the write-ups. Amazing to think that Collingwood could have dominated the game as it did so well for three quarters (and had its forward line functioning very well) and still the difference could have been about 3-4 goals going into the last quarter. I think if that had happened, Collingwood would still have won comfortably as it sd hv been able to hold its own in the last quarter with a bit more need to do so.

I’ll miss those Cats. But the crucial stat – Collingwood – average age 24. Geelong, average age 27. Bye bye pussies, you were a joy to behold.

Now Troppodillians, I know that for years now, you’ve been wondering what you can do to make up for all the effort the TroppoWrite team put in for the  TroppoComment and the TroppoLurk community. Now Dr Peach needs a ticket to the AFL Grand Final. It doesn’t happen very often. Being a Collinwood supporter (all Troppo Writers and Commenters are honorary Collingwood supporters – some moonlight with other clubs but we know where their real loyalties lie deep in their hearts. TroppoLurkers – we just don’t have the data, but it stands to reason that they’d support Collingwood, or that they could be persuaded to for at least one week – is that so much to ask?) I got to the 1970, and 1980 Grand Finals, nightmares that they were. I was in Canberra for 1990 so that was a downer. So I’ve never, ever been there for the Premiership that seems likely next week. (There was a Grand Final crowd of 95,000 at last night’s final).

So here is your big chance. Beg, borrow or steal me a ticket or two to the game and you can repay the Troppo team, and in particular me, for all those great posts that the whole team have posted day in day out for year on year. And of course although it will give you an inner glow it’s not all self sacrifice. No. In addition to whatever you can wring out of me in cold hard cash, there’s a generous dose of Troppo self-delusion thrown in.  In addition to the Troppo Mercedes Sports and the First Class trip to the Oprah Winfrey Show flying Air John Travolta, to be met at the airport by Barack Obama chauffeured by former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, I will come up with a piece of virtuoso policy making – just for you. Regional policy, a cable to 100% of Australian households, zero waste, and zero carbon emissions are yours, just for the asking – and the ticket.

And remember we are talking of human rights here. Mental health, which has, thankfully come into its own as a political issue.

Email me at ngruen AT gmail DOT etc.

Well that’s the question for us long suffering Collingwood supporters. Who will we maul, and will it be ourselves. For the uninitiated Collingwood finished at the top of the ladder at the end of home and away matches for the first time since . . . well I’ve read it somewhere, but it may be the first time since 1977. They’ve performed better than any other side. So they should be able to beat Geelong.  There is one thing that drives me nuts about them, and has since Mick Malthouse has coached them. He seems good at motivating his players for the big ones, as a good coach must be. He seems good at developing talent. He’s a worrier he says, which, as a fellow worrier gives me confidence. But here are the things that worry me.

We pretty much have the best set of players going in our forward line. Yet it’s hard to figure out what exactly the plan is up forward. In the case of virtually any other club, if a mid-fielder gets the ball and their side has control, there’ll be a dangerous lead up forward and that and an accurate pass will make it damn difficult for the opposition to stop a dangerous shot on goal. As I explained in this post, we don’t seem to do that. In fact though we’ve got a lot better than we were when I wrote that post I just linked to, the lack of strategy up forward remains. If they kept stats on it, I think we’d have one of the least number of shots at goal from a good spot within the forward 50 from marks to leads.

We take the ball laboriously round the wing and then pass to someone leading into a pocket for a lousy chance to score. Or we fart around at the fifty metre mark waiting for an opportunity to go into the forward line. But where that seems to work well for other clubs – with leads and also mid-fielders streaming down, when things are not going well for us it just seems to hold things up until the other side has packed its defence. Our style of kicking goals up forward seems to be to just look like we might attack and then kick the ball in and hope that things turn out. Usually they don’t but we have such control of the ball in the midfield that amidst all the behinds we score, we score enough goals to actually win.

Still, wordsmith as ever and ‘latter optionist’ Mick Malthouse has this to say ““We set, [in the] very early days, a criteria of our game structure being in place to win enough games to make the eight”. So there you go. I’ll be at the ground tomorrow night and I think we might make it over the line. If we do, we’ll beat those miserable Saints who, after the Swans, have done so much to make the modern game the cramped, low scoring miserable affair that Collingwood seems to be helping it become.