Australia’s rugby record against England starkly confutes the notion that ability is a simple function of resources. England has over 700,000 rugby players; Australia has fewer than 70,000. Yet, more often than not, we flog the place on the field. Of the 33 Tests decided over the last 100 years, the Wallabies have won 20. Despite a playing pool 10 times our size, England’s First 15 hasn’t been much more than half as good as the Wallabies.

Along with everyone else in the rugby world, bar those poor unfortunates who actually live in the place where the sun don’t shine, I expect the Wallaby victory roll to reach 21 on Saturday night. The dangers are the English scrum, Jonny Wilkinson’s boot and the Pommie propensity to go the niggle. If the Poms are good for anything at all, they’ll give us a fair measure of how far our scrum has come since that dark day when we fell apart at Twickenham in November 2005. We’re also likely to get an idea of the tactics Knuckles has dreamed up to counter the field goal, which will be just as vital against the Springboks, should we manage to go all the way.

To see Australia crush England into the French dust would be a joy to behold. Such a result is not beyond the realm of possibilites. But, as hopeless as they have been in the pool games, I don’t expect the reigning World Champions to bow out without a decent fight. Nor do I think a walloping is necessarily the World Cup winning way for the Wallabies. Remember 1999 dear fans. Gradually, Australia lifted through the tournament, rising to the challenge of each match, but rising no further than necessary. I’ll be happy, so long as we’re not on the plane home Sunday.

Go the Wallabies!

Update: Some great rugby reading in today’s paper. Wayne Smith has a pearler of an overview (Knuckles is doing a star turn – if the Wallabies win the Cup, he should start his own tv show). Mark Ella is spot on, as usual, with a perfect summary of the form so far. And then there is this strange one from Simon Barnes, an Englishman who climbs up on his high-horse to declare that he is not “neo-colonial, possessed of a born-to-rule mentality, a racial supremacist, a little Englander, a snooty bastard, an avoider of baths, an oppressor, a cultural elitist, a snob … a racist, Pope Hadrian IV, a Black and Tan, Oliver Cromwell, the Duke of Cumberland, an anti-Catholic, an anti-Protestant, Edward I, a silencer of Celtic languages”. He concludes that the “England-hating O’Neill is (a) pathetic, (b) a bigot and (c) locked in the past,” therein disclosing that he has missed the bleeding obvious, which is that John O’Neil is a headline hunter and Simon Barnes’ scalp is now in his trophy bag. Go the Wallabies!

Update: I wish I could say that the better team lost. Or that we wuz robbed. Or that they were lucky. I wish I could say anything at all, except the dreaded truth, which is that England outplayed Australia. Even worse, the 12-10 result doesn’t reflect how much better the Poms played. Hats off to their forwards in particular, who dominated, not so much in the scrum, where we sort of hung on, but at the breakdown, in a way that I would have never believed possible. So comprehensively did they throw the Wallabies off their game, it seemed as though they had an extra player, or two or three, on the field. Well done and deserved England. Four more years of gloating Pommies. Oh, the pain, the pain. It’s only a game, right? Oh, the pain …

In the biggest scandal since Phar Lap, Australia’s chance of a third rugby World Cup may have sunk this week, thanks to some Dirty Pierre infecting the great Bernie Larkham. Australia was always only an outside chance, assuming our champion 10 would be on the paddock, on song. Without Larkham, a Wallaby World Cup is not impossible, only unimaginable.

For Australia to be good enough to take the tournament, sans Bernie, the Wallabies will have to become something that we have literally not seen before. New forces will have to emerge. The players who still have latent potential will have to stand right up, fully realising themselves, immediately.

We do have guys still developing. Think of Matt Dunning, who has made so much progress. No question, there is more to come from Berrick Barnes. Adam Ashley-Cooper could fully arrive, or turn up like he did against the All Blacks earlier this year. Wycliffe Palu is growing through the tournament. Giteau is having the time of his life. There will come a day when Rocky Elsom will defeat one of the rugby superpowers single-handedly, as could Morts. Can Nathan Sharpe pull another finger out? George Smith is, perhaps, the only Wallaby who we definitely know can’t get any better, since he’s already the best.

The Wallabies can’t be written off. But the news of Bernie’s nobbling will have put a big smile on the face of every sheep in New Zealand, which has never defeated Australia in a World Cup match. In the meantime, Knuckles’ boys have a meaningless game against Canada this weekend, a hiatus, an effective gap in the schedule, into which we have sent the reserves, to break their cabin fever and get their names on the list of participants. There’s no point in even running any moves, as few of these players will be executing them, come the big time.

More interesting is England vs Tonga. Will the Poms become the first Cup holder to die in the following pool? A delicious humiliation may loom. The other hot game is Argentina vs Ireland. If the Argies get up, the Dirty Pierres will face the Blacks in a quarter-final in Cardiff, in their own World Cup! Think of Bernie, and call it Karma.

Go Tonga! Go the Argies!

Update: Rugby is a demanding template, and fans must endure many desulatory exhibitions, as we did last night in Australia’s horrible 37-6 win over Canada, about which the less said the better. With my spirit low, I met a friend for a drink afterwards, where I saw most of the Fiji-Wales game. From the mind-numbing to the utterly sublime. If you missed it, read Stephen Jones’ match report, which begins: “Well, how many greats do you want? Perhaps the greatest World Cup game ever played, perhaps the greatest feast of rugby and the greatest range of attacking palletes. Perhaps the greatest upset, and perhaps the final condemnation of all those who would rather that great rugby nations such as Fiji were given their own minor-countries tournament to mess about in. This was one of those games that you will need to sit with the video in a darkened room to believe that it ever happened.” And that’s just for starters. It was an epic. If it’s replayed, don’t miss it for quids.

Update: The quarter-finals are, in order of playing times: (1) Australia vs England; (2) New Zealand vs France (at Cardiff); (3) South Africa vs Fiji; (4) Argentina vs Scotland. As anticipated, this means that the sequence facing the Wallabies is: (1) England; (2) the All Blacks (or France); and (3) the Springboks, assuming that the Boks can get past supercharged outsiders, Fiji and Argentina. The end of the pools also means that the first consolation prizes have been distributed, with Tonga, Wales, Italy and Ireland securing automatic qualification for the 2011 World Cup. Go the Wallabies!

Bernie Watch: In comments, Fred Argy advises that, writing in todays (i.e. Monday’s) Canberra Times, Bernie says he is now jogging!

It’s been a great week for Wallaby fans, with the team winning more positive copy than it has received all year, or two. Well and good, although it’s way too early to start getting carried away. Continuous improvement must be the watchwords for the Wallabies in this World Cup. Australia will put Fiji to the sword on Sunday. But that’s less important than creating a trajectory of continuous improvement through the tournament, which we must do if we’re to steal the thing.

The priority must continue to be on developing our forward play, our scrum, our rolling maul, our pick-and-drive, our counter-attack from breakdowns, for this is where we must eventually match the All Blacks, assuming we get into the semi-finals. The test in playing Fiji lies not in being able to win, and win well, but in being able to maintain, nay positively improve, our teamwork, particularly in the forwards.

In the backs, all eyes will be on the baby superstar, Berrick Barnes. Mark Ella puts his sensational tour into perspective in the Oz today. Fiji will also see the return of the Coopster, who is starting in 13. This is where he says he feels most comfortable, and where Captain Morts reckons Coops will spend his future. The player most desperate for a big outing is Lote Tuqiri. Wayne Smith reviews the problem today. I suspect Knuckles and Co will give him until the finals to show up, but the sooner the better.

Go the Wallabies!

P.S. England versus Samoa could be a cracker. Can Jonny Wilkinson make a difference to these no-hopers, or will the Pommies totally disgrace themselves? Go Samoa!

Update: OK, we won 55-12, scored seven tries, gathered the bonus point and cemented a place in the quarter finals. But for mine, it was the most unsatisfying Wallaby game of the year. The forwards were a dog’s breakfast and the team was sloppy all round. I’m disconcerted by the fact that we’ve already let in more tries than the two previous times that we’ve won the Cup. No way did we look potential World Champions. Maybe this was the let down we had to have. Maybe any team from which you subtract George Smith, Bernie Larkham and Stirling Mortlock is going to look relatively second rate. Having proved their detractors wrong; now the Wallabies have to prove they’re really up for the full tilt.

Crazy Eddie Watch #5: “Rocky Elsom has panned former coach Eddie Jones for turning the Wallabies into a boring team. Elsom suggested leading forwards were banned from showing any adventure on the field and lived in fear of making mistakes before Jones was sacked two years ago.” It’s a big story, getting bigger.

Crazy Eddie Watch #6: “It was reported this week that some of the senior Springboks were considering not wearing their blazers until the South African Rugby Union gave Australian coach Eddie Jones a blazer. But the union said a condition of Jones’s employment was that he would not be given a blazer.” Doncha miss him?

Crazy Eddie Watch #7: From the tapes: “Look John, I know youve got Australian rugbys interests at heart, but did you really have to have Rocky Elsom trash my reputation like that saying that I turned the Wallabies into the most boring side in the world, that I was a control freak who paralysed all the players natural attacking flair because they feared if they made a mistake I would peg them out over an ant bed coated in honey? But you did do that, Eddie, didnt you many still bear the scars from the bull-ant bites? Yes, well you have to set the team parameters from the word go.

[Sign the Bone Growden Petition.]

Australian rugby guru Rod Macqueen, one of the architects of the Stellenbosch rules

Missing Link arts editor and Sidelined sports pundit Amanda Rose habitually refers to rugby as “yawnion”, and this commenter received short shrift from Chris Sheil for expressing similar sentiments on his latest World Cup post:

If you dont like it, dont watch it, dummy. The less the better, as the fans would then be able to watch it free to air on the ABC. If we can drive enough of the numnuts away, we might even be able to have games in the afternoon again. Bliss.

Tongue in cheek no doubt, but not really a wise attitude in this ultra-professional sporting era, when rugby is competing for players, sponsorship and crowds with league, AFL and even soccer.

Moreover, mightn’t the doubters actually have a point? I’m a rugby bloke born and bred, and I’ll certainly be staying up to watch every match Australia plays, and quite a few of the other World Cup matches as well. But let’s be blunt about it: far too many top level rugby games are boring, boring, boring, at least for potential fans who can neither understand nor appreciate the nuances of scrummaging, rucks, the rolling maul or lineout techniques and tactics.

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Before a full house at one of rugby’s great theatres, the Wallabies face a huge World Cup match in Wales on Saturday. The position of the Wallabies is somewhat analogous to Rudd Labor’s over the Howard Government. Australia should win easily, except that the recent record of poor results between the nations at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium nags like hell.

If Australia is to be a serious contender for the 2007 Cup, this is the match in which the Wallabies must lay waste to the ghosts of northern tours past. We’ve won 11 of the last 13 Tests against Wales, but haven’t defeated the country at the Millennium Stadium in the two matches we’ve played there since 2001. Showing early glimpses of the post-Crazy Eddie era, we played a drawn Test, 29-all, at the ground last year.

The Wallabies are aiming up. The messages from the camp have all been similar. Rocky Elsom has been reported to have the “serious shits” about Wales’ record, and is “going for the jugular”. Nathan Sharpe has repeatedly said that the past mistake has been “taking the foot off their throat”. George Smith has shrugged off the home-ground advantage that Wales swindled out of the French in the IRB vote, and is reported to be looking forward to slaying Wales before 75,000 of its fans. Canadian assistant coach, former Wallaby Glen Ella, has predicted a “bloodbath”.

I’ll settle for a narrow win and an appreciable improvement. Knuckles has made some interesting changes. The return of Guy Shepherdson as tight-head prop in place of Al Baxter is to be welcomed, for what will be a major test for this pack, and a crucial base for building its confidence going into the finals. Expect a big game from Dan Vickerman, who’s playing his 50th match for the Wallabies. If we do smash the Joneses, Williamses, Thomases and Jenkinses early, Smithy will no doubt put his feet up to give Phil Waugh a much needed airing.

In the backs, the left wing’s a worry, where the replacement for Adam Ashley-Cooper, Drew Mitchell, hasn’t yet convinced that he’s mature enough for top level international rugby, even though he can excel in the lower grades. The All Blacks treat him as snack food, and he’s bound to be tested. On the other hand, it’s great to see Scott Staniforth (right) on the bench, who can take over if the kid gets trashed. If Mitchell stands up, watch for Knuckles to do the switch, giving Greegs an early shower in favour of Gits at 9 and Staniforth taking 12. This second-half re-orchestration of the backs has been sensational in its precious few outings to date.

Although the Welsh will be prepared to die on their pitch, the Wallabies will go in firm favourites and we’ve got good reason to be confident. All the players should be better for their Japan romp, where they looked the goods, and everything about the team seems in fine fettle. Perhaps just to annoy John O’Neil, Knuckles is even talking about staying on as coach! The stars look well set. Yet, like Rudd Labor, there can be no chicken counting. Until the job’s done, discipline is at a premium.

Go the Wallabies!

Crazy Eddie Watch #2: Dig this. Eddie “calculated that that scrums took up no more than eight minutes of playing time and so he would devote precisely eight minutes of training time to the set-piece.” What next? Eddie calculated that the players spent more time training than playing and so he would devote the games to training?

Update: A 32-20 win at Cardiff will do me, anytime! Good show Barnsey. Boy Wonder had a first-half blinder. Cliffy Palu also stood up. Much to be digested … later. The immediate takeaway: hurdle jumped.

Crazy Eddie Watch #3: From the Oz: “Connolly’s concession that Barnes’ current form hadn’t warranted selection earned him another media pilloring, but the sub-text clearly was that Barnes was left so confused and hesitant after constantly being tongue-lashed by Eddie Jones that he ended up showing nothing at all for the Queensland Reds. ‘He said he felt like he had been standing in a mud puddle at the Reds,’ said Connolly…”

Crazy Eddie Watch #4: From Tim Horan: “Before the tournament, former Wallabies and Queensland coach Eddie Jones questioned the durability of Australia’s forwards, in particular backrowers Rocky Elsom and Palu.”

[Sign the Bone Growden Petition.]

Time allowing, I’m aiming to blog the Rugby World Cup, with a minimum of one post before each Wallaby match, updated with the result. For the duration, I will live in a Sydney Morning Herald free-zone, as I refuse to share the tournament with the bias of Fairfax CEO David Kirk and the loathsome Greg Growden. All rugby fans are urged to do likewise.

It felt strange. I’ve bought the Australian many times. Indeed, I bought all the Sydney and national papers daily, frequently along with papers from other states, for decades. Yet, never before have I gone out to buy, and only buy, the Australian, as I did this morning. I’m glad I did. The 20-page 2007 Rugby World Cup Souvenir Edition (not online) is of a quality well above the rubbish served up by the All Black Morning Herald earlier this week. Wayne Smith, Bret Harris and Mark Ella are a big cut above the appalling Kirk-Growden crew.

To the action. As we stand on the precipice of the 6th World Cup, let’s be clear. Australia is not expected to win its third William Webb Ellis trophy, or “Bill”. The All Blacks are, and are fully entitled to be, hot favourites. Behind them, I rate France because of the home ground advantage – provided it can get through its “pool of death”, where France faces both Ireland and Argentina. Although neither South Africa nor England can be written off, and while Wales, Ireland and the Argies are also to be fully respected, I rate the Wallabies the best outside chance.

Following the coaching change from Crazy Eddie Jones last year, Australia’s international rugby form began to come back in 2007, when the Wallabies were the only team in the world to defeat the All Blacks. Defence is at a premium in the Cup, and the Wallaby defence is among the world’s best, if not the best. Likewise, our line-out is top class, thanks largely to Dan Vickerman (right), giving us an attacking set-piece. We also have valuable Cup-winning experience. The scrum is our weakness, but has improved such that we might now expect it to hold in top company.

The key to this Cup, I suspect, will be the contest at the breakdown. In attack, we have to offload in the tackle, or go into either rolling maul or pick and drive formations. The days of simply rolling over to set up quick phases are gone. Everyone is awake to this tactic, and hence the oppositions are refusing to commit players to Wallaby breakdowns, leaving them free to crowd our halves out. This means that we have to either keep our movements going through offloads, or purposefully force the oppositions to commit players. In defence, we must treat the breakdown as a base for launching counter-attacks.

But the grand strategies are for the weeks ahead. Tomorrow night the Wallabies face Japan in their pool opener. The bar should not be set too high. All the Wallabies need do first up is find their feet and feel out their combinations. A 20-30 points winning margin and an intact defensive performance will suffice. We can leave the 100-nil all guns blazing approach to the pool games for the All Blacks. The rhythm the Wallabies should be looking for is a gradual building of momentum through the tournament, with our standard lifting to meet the competition as it intensifies.

Knuckles has made a smart decision in giving young Berrick Barnes a start off the bench. There’s no question that the Wallaby ace is the wizard named Stephen “Bernie” Larkham at No 10 (right). But watching Bernie play is in equal parts enthralling and nerve-wracking, given that he’s both injury prone and heavily targeted by the opposition defence. An early shower for the maestro in favour of his Cup understudy is the way to go first up, especially as Barnes won his selection despite poor form this year and needs time on the paddock. I also hope Stephen Hoiles and Adam Freier get at least the lion’s share of the second half.

After a promising 2006, Barnes’ poor recent form was almost certainly due to Queensland having had the grave misfortune of being coached by Crazy Eddie. In this light, a story about Al Baxter in today’s Australian is one of the most heartening to come out of the Wallaby camp. Like a victim of post-traumatic stress disorder, Baxter has become one of the first players to speak publicly about the harrowing experience of the Crazy Eddie era. It’s a fascinating glimpse of what I expect will be a lot more to come. With “the Wallaby Work Index” now mercifully in the bin, the “feeling amongst the squad at the moment” says Baxter, “is the best I’ve ever felt.”

The story augers well. Let the great battle commence. Go the Wallabies!

Update: Whacko! In a sensational tournament opener, Argentina smacked host nation France 17-12! Go the Pumas! The pool of death, indeed! Go Ireland!

Update: A good Wallaby opener. 91-3 and 13 tries to – more importantly – nil. This was the leg stretch that the Wallabies needed. The rampaging Rocky Elsom (right) was a great sight. The Rock had a sensational Super 14 followed by a less spectacular Test season. Tonight, he looked set for the big Cup that he has to have. The forwards showed discipline. Smithy scored the try of the match for mine, with a tackle and a steal in which he freakily never left his feet. So far, so excellent.

Update: Justin Harrison assesses the Wales match.

Update: Growden-Haters Unite! You can sign the Bone Growden Petition here.

As regular Troppo rugby tragics know, I’ve been on the case of the most reviled journalist in Wallaby history, the Sydney Morning Herald‘s appalling Greg Growden, for some time. Thanks to my vast rugby spy network, the mystery about why Growden hasn’t been sacked has been solved, and is here exclusively revealed.

First, a quick reprise. Greg Growden is misleadingly referred to in print as the SMH‘s “Chief Rugby Correspondent”. The truth is, he has never played rugby, he has no interest in rugby and he has no idea what rugby is about. His title is 100 per cent crap. Growden is actually paid by the SMH to sniff Wallaby bedsheets and publicly beat the minutest of stains up into capital offences. Gregs obsessiveness over all things trivial off-field is in perfectly inverse proportion to his abject lack of interest in the game itself, which is, of course, why he is so reviled.

Last week saw classic Growden. Two 29-year old Wallabies stayed up drinking with friends in their hotel room till 5 am, in their own time, with no obligations the next day, like all free 29-year olds do, at the least, if you’re lucky, on a slow and responsible night. Because they were subsequently found to have unknowingly been in the proximity of some people who were subsequently in the proximity of an incident with a taxi driver, Growden sniffed their sheets and demanded that they be sacked.

Yes, the coverage was barking mad and directly against the interests of Australian rugby, not to mention offensive to the inalienable human rights of all free 29-year olds everywhere. In an earlier Growden discussion, I raised the question of why the SMH would pay someone to rubbish the game to the extent of him becoming intensely despised by Sydney’s rugby fans (and I think only Sydneysiders can really know how intense Growden-hatred is, at least among the fans in these eastern parts):

Anyone who writes about rugby without a genuine feel for and love of the game may just as well not bother writing, if he is aiming to write for the games fans; full stop. If he is not writing for the fans, who is he serving? Rugby league fans? His stupid self? Perhaps he is on the take from somewhere? Who knows.

Well folks, the word is now out, and it’s two words – David Kirk. Who’s David Kirk? David Kirk replaced Fred Hilmer as CEO of John Fairfax Holdings Ltd, the owner of the Sydney Morning Herald, on 17 October 2005. David Kirk is also All Black No. 843. David Kirk played 17 Tests, 11 as captain – the highest office under the Silver Fern. David Kirk was the captain, half-back and one of the three try-scorers in the final of the only All Black World Cup victory in 1987. Captain Kirk is, in other words, a de facto Kiwi Governor-General, an NZ President in absentia, an All Black Immortal, the only man in the history of the land of the long white cloud to have ever led the most fanatical rugby nation on earth to a World Cup. Australia has won two World Cups. All Black No. 843 now runs Fairfax, which employs Greg Growden.

Case closed. My sources are mixed on whether Growden is an unknowing tool in the Fairfax-All Black conspiracy to disrupt the 2007 Wallaby World Cup tilt. In any event, for the tournament’s duration, the paper should be called the All Black Morning Herald. Everyone I know is planning on switching to the Australian. The serious concern is over John O’Neill, who some claim has a media vanity highly susceptible to dangling the Wallabies at the end of a confected David Kirk-Greg Growden rope.

Update: David Kirk profile (the SMH, but dig the giveaway pic!). About Fairfax NZ.