Paddy’s crystal ball

Paddy McGuinness is enthusiastically (and no doubt mischievously) pushing the “Carr for Canberra” cart. He touts Leaping Leo McLeay as the bloke most likely to surrender his lucrative seat on the parliamentary exercise bike for the greater good. Leo is Geoff Honnor’s local member if I remember rightly, so we may yet have a TA blogger at the epicentre of great national events.

McGuinness also makes the point that ALP leadership aspirants like Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan may not be around after the next election if the internal polling leaked the other day is accurate, while Craig Emerson clearly still has a lot to learn and the less said about that buffoon Latham the better. On the other hand, an even slightly resurgent One Nation in Queensland might well leak enough Tory preferences to save Rudd and Swan. I certainly agree that Carr would be at short odds to assume the leadership if he makes the Canberra run and Simon the Unlikeable stays in the job until the next election, but there are some pretty big contingencies in there.

About Ken Parish

Ken Parish is a legal academic, with research areas in public law (constitutional and administrative law), civil procedure and teaching & learning theory and practice. He has been a legal academic for almost 20 years. Before that he ran a legal practice in Darwin for 15 years and was a Member of the NT Legislative Assembly for almost 4 years in the early 1990s.
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Ron Mead
Ron Mead
2022 years ago

Excellent bit of tongue-in-cheek soothsaying by Paddy. I loved the ironic use of the word “loyal” in “By the end of the year he will be ready to hand over to his loyal deputy, Peter Costello.”

I wouldn’t get too carried away with the internal Labor polling which in one report I heard dates back to June when Howard was enjoying a 54-46 2PP Newspoll, when optimism and rejoicing at the progress of the Iraq campaign was at its height. The release of that poll now is just part of the destabilisation campaign against Crean. Not that I have any sympathy with Crean but it just highlights the lack of integrity among his opponents.

cs
cs
2022 years ago

Paddy’s so far behind the curve on this one I don’t think Troppo should be bothering with him. Leapin’ Leo’s seat has already been pre-selected, so it’s not Leapin’s decision … Rudd was one of the few QLD members to increase his margin at the last election, so the general trend can’t be extrapolated in sucg simple terms and is unlikely to affect him. Sigh, it’s hard blogging work draggin’ the daily media forward.

Ken Parish
Ken Parish
2022 years ago

Chris,

The fact that Rudd increased his margin at the last election wouldn’t matter if the leaked polling was accurate. The point, as Ron noted, is that it seems to date from a couple of months ago when Howard looked healthier in the polls than now, and also ignores any sustained One Nation recovery (that may or may not occur).

Your point about pre-selection for McLeay’s seat, however, is a lot stronger and doesn’t say much for Paddy’s diligence. It may well be possible in theory for the National Executive to undo a pre-selection already completed, but in practice it would be just about impossible.

I suspect McGuinness is right about Laurie Brereton not standing aside for Carr, though, which raises the obvious question of what credible (in terms of local links) safe seat could a by-election be engineered in to get Carr into Federal Parliament. It all looks a bit difficult really, and tends to suggest that any Carr gambit probably won’t be until after the next federal election (although before 2007 if it’s going to happen).

Geoff Honnor
Geoff Honnor
2022 years ago

Yes, Watson’s new candidate is Tony Burke currently the Watson FEC Secretary. He’s mid 30’s, a member of the state Legislative Council, former Young Labor Prez, staffer for Graham Richardson and Michael Forshaw and an Organiser for the Shoppies. He’s rusted-on McLeay-Doolan PaleoRight – a fervent foe of euthanasia and one of the few government members who voted aginst Age of Consent recently. He’s also lived in Watson all his life.

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility for Burke to pull out of course – particularly if Brereton’s seat was held out as an eventual delayed gratification carrot……certainly can’t see Laurie making way for Bob Carr.

BTW – a bit of trivia here: Watson is the only federal Labor electorate that is totally landlocked by other Labor electorates – isn’t that interesting?

Ken – We are indeed part of Leo’s fief here at the Casa del Undercliffe, but only just. A mere exercycle fall across the Cook’s River (do not collect 65 grand) and we’d be part of the Anthony Albanese-led Grayndler Family – and we’re not talking nuclear….

Homer Paxton
Homer Paxton
2022 years ago

Paddy contradicts himself.
If Carr is thinking of going to Canberra it will be because the wind is blowing the polls the right way. There is no way Carr is going to Canberra to merely gain a respectable defeat. He has had his fill of being Opposition Leader.
No IF he is going to Canberra then the polls are a lot better for the ALP than the ‘strategists’ are saying.
At worst the thinking would be Carr would keep all non-NSW seats and he would sweep a lot of seats in NSW.
He could take Kingsford-Smith if he were to make it look as a slap in the face for Sussex St.

He is capable of this. If he does move he won’t do it until the last minute.
The more I think about it the more I like it!!

Ron Mead
Ron Mead
2022 years ago

There could be parallels here with Hawke’s accession to leadership on the day Fraser called the 1983 election. But Hawke was a vastly different creature from Carr. Firstly he was a national figure in the ACTU whereas Carr is identified with NSW and would be seen by anyone outside Sydney (particularly in Melbourne) as extremely parochial. I remember there was still plenty of angst in people associated with the Wills electorate in (then) working class Melbourne at this outsider being imposed on them.

I reckon Carr as leader would deliver a huge NSW swing to Labor but could lose just as many seats in other states on account of being so Sydney.

Anyhow I still thought Paddy’s piece was an excellent read. A far better example of irony and understated humour than the vitriolic sarcastic Carlton is capable of producing.

Geoff Honnor
Geoff Honnor
2022 years ago

Ron – They’re still reeling down in Bleak City after the Hun editorialised on Saturday about the bountiful riches that would pour forth from Carr’s leadership of Federal Labor. For a paper that perceives only the Heart of Darkness north of the Murray – and the infinite wickedness of the ALP no matter where it is – it was a major shock….

Homer – the point is that the only thing keeping the Coalition from increasingly likely defeat is the lamentable, lacklustre, ludicrous leadership of Simon Crean. Forget “2007.” Carr’s going to be heading into his late 50’s by then…….he’ll be more likely the President of Stanford University… or maybe with the Brookings Institution….It’s now or never.

cs
cs
2022 years ago

Ken,

I don’t know how you figure that. The leaked polling was very selective, glib and broad based. Kevin got 52.43% in the GST election, and then went against the national and particularly the state trend to puch himself up to 55.66% last time around. On this basis, it seems fair to say that he’s still likely to be going forward, minus some amount for the wider reverse trend. Provided he has not taken his eye off the local ball … which I bet he hasn’t … he looks safe as houses to me … not that I would expect a few facts and a bit of analysis to get in the way of a Paddy beat up.

Tysen
Tysen
2022 years ago

I don’t think the Herald-Sun is that hard on the ALP. They seem to tolerate Bracks in a way that Kennett could (have) only dream(ed) of.

Actually, Andrew Bolt seems like the only more critical of Labor than the coalition.

Homer Paxton
Homer Paxton
2022 years ago

Geoff,
I agree with you.
The present Government looks and smells of one that has to go.
Upon reflection I think what has happened is that feelers have been put out.
I would look to Carr going to Canberra sometime next year IF it happens.

I don’t think he would lose any seats so Johnny would be getting quite nervous.
Who else on Labor side couls match Howard on security but then bring question of credibility (or lying) to assist him!!

As I said the polling must be favourable otherwise he wouldn’t be in it!

Stephen Hill
Stephen Hill
2022 years ago

What seems to have been neglected by the pundits, is that in the Queensland electorate redistribution Kevin Rudd gained a lot more Labor territory, which should make his seat a lot safer. The ones to lose were Con Sciacca whose seat is now notionally liberal.

Also Mal Brough’s seat is now very very marginal, there should be an interesting pre-selection battle as he attempts to claim the seat of Peter ‘Slippery’ Slipper.

Michael Jennings
2022 years ago

I will continue to say what I have been saying for a while, which is that if Carr goes into the next election as opposition leader, he will win. I don’t think he will lose seats anywhere else compared with Crean (he may have a very NSW profile, but the disadvantage of this will be countered by his having an air of much greater competence). And I find it impossible to believe he can’t pick up half a dozen seats in NSW, given his starting point. And that is government for the ALP. I think the electorate wants a change, and the only thing preventing one is the ALPs lack of a credibel leader. Carr is credible.

If this becomes serious, then the picture concerning the election stays serious. Election timing suddenly isn’t about getting as many bills ready for a double dissolution and then timing that correctly, but instead is all about survival. An election this year suddenly becomes much more possible.

Dave Ricardo
Dave Ricardo
2022 years ago

The parallel is with Neville Wran. Wran, like Carr, commanded his Party, his Parliament and his State (in decreasing order of importance). Wran, like Carr, was bored in the job. Wran, like Carr, was talked about as the man to be drafted and fix a moribund federal Labor Party. Wran, like Carr, thought out loud about it.

Carr, like Wran, will stay exactly where he is. Carr knows perfectly well that federal politics are different, and success in one doesn’t guarantee success in the other. In fact, you could argue that the qualities that ensure success in state politics (such as the ability to engage in shameless parochialism with a straight face – see also Beattie, P) will doom an aspiring national leader to failure.

By the way, whoever said that Craig Emerson was a leadership contender? That must be one of the nuttiest ideas, ever.

Geoff Honnor
Geoff Honnor
2022 years ago

“By the way, whoever said that Craig Emerson was a leadership contender?”

Julia Gillard? ;)

Dave Ricardo
Dave Ricardo
2022 years ago

Geoff, for all you know, Julia might be leading Craig