Shortening odds on early DD?

Michael Costello seems now to have joined the ranks of those (including this armadillo) betting on an early double dissolution federal election. From memory of a bet made months ago, I win a nice bottle of red from Michael Jennings if a DD election is held any time between December and April 2004 while Michael wins if one is held thereafter.

Costello touts Deputy PM John Anderson’s sudden reversal of his retirement decision and numerous other straws in the wind as factors tending to point to an election sooner rather than later. Of course, as Kim Beazley’s former Chief of Staff, he could be simply adding his weight to that of Bob Carr in trying to revive Kim’s leadership push. Geoff Kitney’s column in today’s Silly Moaning Hillmer (“If Labor doesn’t find some backbone, we will be left with virtually a one-party system“) may have a similar effect, whatever its intent. It may be a phony war, but it’s an interesting one (despite the Chaser mob’s Alan Cadman for PM spoof).

PS – I haven’t been able to open Tim Blair’s blog for more than a day now. While some may count this a blessing, I miss my daily dose of RWDB-ishness (especially given that Professor Bunyip also still has the dreaded lurgie). Is it just my browser, or are others having this problem too?

About Ken Parish

Ken Parish is a legal academic, with research areas in public law (constitutional and administrative law), civil procedure and teaching & learning theory and practice. He has been a legal academic for almost 20 years. Before that he ran a legal practice in Darwin for 15 years and was a Member of the NT Legislative Assembly for almost 4 years in the early 1990s.
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Ron Mead
Ron Mead
2022 years ago

Tim Blair’s link is OK on my computer now, Ken.

Dave Ricardo
Dave Ricardo
2022 years ago

On Blair, it’s clearly a case of the dark forces of Political Correctness, censoring, yet again, a conservative voice.

Except that I can open his blog.

However, (seriously) I have a lot of trouble opening John Quiggin’s blog.

I believe that ASIO is suppressing a much needed voice on the Left, on orders from John Howard.

Tys
Tys
2022 years ago

I suspect my ‘leftie’ router is doing something similar…

Ken Parish
Ken Parish
2022 years ago

TB’s blog still won’t open for me, nor does it open in Mozilla on this computer. Anyone have any clues why that might be?

Ron Mead
Ron Mead
2022 years ago

“Howard has shown the ability in the past, however, to quickly gather himself and the Coalition back into a much more disciplined and focused mode.”

This may well be the key to this “political mode” Costello is talking about. Certainly John Howard needs a circuit breaker to get out of the Coalition’s mid-season slump. Like a good coach he’s has to change gears, unlike Richmond’s coach who allowed the Tigers to drift from triumph to disappointment through to mediocrity and finally dismal disaster.

You and Michael Costello may well be right about a double dissolution, Ken. But it is a tremendous risk. People would see it for what it is, a naked grab for power to take advantage of an opposition vacuum. We could end up with Crean by default and have three years to regret having abandoned our rationality just to make a point.

The thesis does have credibility though. Howard is a man who doesn’t shrink from risk. Whatever else you think he is, he’s not a coward. He’s shown himself to be a superb risk manager.

Geoff Honnor
Geoff Honnor
2022 years ago

I’m getting both Quiggin and Blair currently, though both blogs have been hard to reach in recent times. Even Troppo was proving elusive yesterday….

I’ve passed your observation, re the ruthless fascist suppression of the good professor, on to Margo, Dave. If she can spare time from her singleminded pursuit of the foul and corrupt entity that is the Australian Electoral Commission, she’ll be at it in a fever of overwrought adjectives!

Yobbo
Yobbo
2022 years ago

Don’t worry ken, there’s still lots of ill-thought out redneck rantings over at my place. Oh, and Tim’s site is working fine for me.

EvilPundit
2022 years ago

Tim Blair’s site has blocked out some trolls recently.

I suspect they’ve used a form of address blocking which might take out some innocent readers as well.

Send him an email explaining your problem.

Gummo Trotsky
2022 years ago

Ken,

I had trouble getting through to Spleenville all last week, as well as a few other sites. As this coincided with one of those virus outbreaks we’ve come to know and love, and has now passed, I suspect you’ll just have to cope with a few days cold turkey, until the problem passes. Or you could go for some RWDB methadone elsewhere.

Homer Paxton
Homer Paxton
2022 years ago

Ron,
You are living on another planet.
Keating took risks.
Howards takes none.

EvilPundit
2022 years ago

You’re absolutely right, Homer.

John Howard would never do anything risky, like going to the polls with a promise to introduce a new tax if elected. Or committing the nation to a foreign war which was not supported by public opinion at the time.

Nope, no risk-taking for little Johnny.

Robert
2022 years ago

All the Costellos appear to share that view. Peter was out there today softening people up.

Michael Jennings
2022 years ago

If there is any truth in the Carr for Canberra business, then there might be some argument for Howard to go now while he can fight an election against Crean. This would let him finish most of his political agenda, serve as PM for a couple more years, and any future leaders of the ALP become Peter Costello’s problem. I still don’t think an election this year is very likely, but it isn’t impossible.

Where is the Telstra privatisation bill in terms of parliamentary progress, by the way? I can’t imagine he would call a double dissolution election without that one as one of the triggers.

Homer Paxton
Homer Paxton
2022 years ago

Johnnee was forced into the GST because he was seen as doing nothing and he couldn’t see himself losing the election anyway.
As such He gained the least amount of votes to win and in the Senate gained the smallest amount of votes since Victor Trumper was at the crease.
This was Johhnee with a touch of the keatings!!

If anyone thinks going to war will lose votes then they have never heard of khakhi elections!
Vietnam was a votewinner at first.
Compare 66 election with 67 half senate!