Well, it looks like those dodgy polls (Omnipoll and that other one) were correct. Newspoll also shows Labor in front and going away (54 to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis). No wonder Howard looked and sounded like a confused old man in his multiple press conferences about his FTA backflip.
Moreover, the exposure of his blatant lying by Mike Scrafton is hardly likely to reverse the trend in the short term, especially given the government’s shifty and unconvincing response. What odds now on a post-Christmas election (say early February – I think they can leave it that long constitutionally?
PS – The mainstream media has now picked up Rob Corr’s revelation that Howard said on ABC Four Corners way back in February 2002 that he spoke with Scrafton about the photos as well as the video (thus contradicting Howard’s claim of only yesterday that they only spoke about the video). It’s taken the journalists less than 24 hours to catch up with the blogosphere.
Moreover, the mere fact that Howard now admits that there was more than one conversation between him and Scrafton that night strongly suggests that they talked about more than just the video. Given Howard’s obvious motive for lying and the inability of RWDBs to postulate any plausible reason why Scrafton might be telling porkies, I don’t think any jury would have the slightest difficulty deciding who’s telling the truth here. Of course, the ultimate jury is the people, and we don’t yet know whether most of them are even paying attention. Political groupies like us bloggers are hardly typical voters. Nevertheless, given those opinion polls it certainly isn’t looking good for Howard.