Tories discover margin of error

Isn’t it interesting how captive Tory mouthpieces like Tim Blair and Terry McCrann only become interested in emphasising (or even mentioning) opinion polling margins of error when the polls start showing a clear ALP lead?! Left and centre blogs (like Troppo, Chris Sheil and Bryan Palmer) have been actively discussing the significance of the polls, margins of error and a range of other issues throughout the campaign period. Moreover, the real problem for Blair and McCrann (which neither bothers to mention) is that the results of the latest Morgan and Newspoll both show a clear Labor lead even allowing for margin of error. And the fact that they confirm each other increases still further the probability that this is a real lead not just a statistical artefact. But you wouldn’t read either Blair or McCrann if you were looking for a thoughtful analysis.

About Ken Parish

Ken Parish is a legal academic, with research areas in public law (constitutional and administrative law), civil procedure and teaching & learning theory and practice. He has been a legal academic for almost 20 years. Before that he ran a legal practice in Darwin for 15 years and was a Member of the NT Legislative Assembly for almost 4 years in the early 1990s.
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Martin Pike
2022 years ago

You wouldn’t read either if you were any more than functionally literate, except as confirmation that natural selection did a very incomplete job on the brain.

TJW
TJW
2022 years ago

It’s your website so you can call anyone anything that you want, but I disagree that McCrann is a “Tory mouthpiece”. Boring, definately. But he still made a valid point, regardless of the timing.

Factory
Factory
2022 years ago

I came upon a realization after Kenett’s defeat that polls are rubbish, even on the day before the election they were completely wrong about who would win the election.

Mark Bahnisch
Mark Bahnisch
2022 years ago

One of my students remarked last week that she worked for Newspoll and got bored about halfway through her $18 hours and rather than listen to the pollee’s “waffle”, alternately wrote down “Labor” or “Liberal”, while thinking about when her next essay was due, what she was doing on the weekend, etc.

Homer Paxton
Homer Paxton
2022 years ago

This has been a common talking point at Back Pages. Mind you thats only because that have some dill talking on and on ans on about it.

for others interested in this and the US election there is a very good article yesterday on a 40,000 ( just under actually) which shows a very close contest on Brad De Long’s site.