We should have known, really. The election eve flagship polls are just as conflicted as the earlier ones. Morgan has Labor a shade in front at 51-49 2PP; ACNeilsen has the Coalition in front by a country mile at 54-46; and Newspoll has them 50-50.
So anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s. Most likely Neilsen is wrong, because it’s well and truly the outrider. That means the contest almost certainly remains neck and neck. Latham might just do it. I’ll go and vote Labor and keep my fingers crossed.
The Morgan poll should also be discounted. There results have been all over the place all year, showing extreme bias to the ALP. It’s only recently they have converged (deliberately?) with Newspoll, the only one with any credibility from the 2001 election. Morgan had egg all over their faces in 2001. It’s well known that these polls filter their statistical results through a final subjective process before release.
And we are supposed to take polls seriously:
“Green voters watch more porn
PORN-USERS are more than twice as likely to vote Green compared with the general population, according to the preliminary findings of a new Australian study.”
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10976476%255E36275,00.html
Thanks for that rivetting piece of info, Ron. I’ve no doubt it will swing a few votes(!).
Seriously though, I’m changing my prediction from a massive Latham victory to a narrow one – but a clear victory nevertheless.
This will break a pattern in federal elections post WWII. Each change of government so far has been by fairly comfortable margins (1949, 1972, 1983, 1996). Unlike in more recent State elections – Wran, Carr and Bracks for example got in by very narrow margins, which they consolidated by winning their succeeding elections by huge majorities.
An interesting sidelight to this issue is the new policy of the SMH not to advocate either party in the election, a departure from long practice. I really like the letter from John B Fairfax (a former proprietor): “A benefit, I assume, will be that your journalists, as distinct from columnists, will also stop offering opinion and present facts.”
What a modern-day revolution that would be! And one I would certainly welcome. I can certainly do without having some snotty-nosed reporter’s view of the world rammed down by throat while eating my vita-brits and trying to find out what is actually happening in the world or just around the corner. As for opinions, my Favourites folder “Bloggers” is full of them and I can choose whichever ones I am in the mood for – The Professor if I’m feeling delicate or Quiggin or Shiel if my stomach is feeling fairly secure and robust.
I’m feeling good about a Labor win. The good news in the Morgan poll (aside from suggesting Nielsen is an outrider) is in the detail. ALP ahead by 50.5% in Lib/Nat marginals, ahead by 61% in its own marginals. Very high Green primary – at 9.5% with a 90% preference flow to Labor – at least 3 points higher than in the past. 4.5% to independents and others breaking to ALP by 53.5% – that category must include FF! The high Green vote explains the low Labor primary. The excellent news is that if Labor is ahead by anything like 61% (and I accept the sample is small but hopefully a trend has been picked), then Latham has gone down a treat with voters who were lukewarm to Labor last time, and Labor should not need to worry about losing any seats.
This all sits well with anecdotal evidence – Ramsay’s report in the SMH about what internal party polling is saying – and the word in Brissie on the ground that the Libs have shifted resources out of Labor marginals and written off Moreton and Petrie to defend seats they thought that they had in the bag like Longman, Blair and Dickson.
Expect good things out of Queensland for Labor tonight!
I’m off now to try and find a red shirt at the bottom of my wardrobe to go and vote in!
I’m feeling a bit better. At least the cricket is going well. 4/24 at tea.
Channel 9 on. I’m having a feeling that an invisible hand is slightly supporting that enormous weight I’ve felt deadening my shoulders these last six weeks.
Actually allowing myself to experience a sense of relief. (7.33 pm EST)
Relief starting to give way to mild ecstasy. Kroger has claimed victory and Ray has conceded likely losses of about eight ALP seats! Oh the joy!
It’s pretty clear (8 pm EST) that Howard has won the election with about the same majority. I have to beg forgiveness to the great Liberal God in the sky for my lack of faith over the last six months. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. And I’ve never been happier at being wrong.
I’ve been watching the blogs today and became more and more worried as virtually every lefty blogger and commenter talked up the chances of the ALP. What’s wrong with us righties? All right it was not all righties, its was only me. But I did notice the lack of a corresponding hubris among the RWDB bloggers prematurely claiming victory.
What a pleasure seeing the geese that Ramsay and Carlton made of themselves this morning! I’m poring another shiraz. Any future comments tonight are likely to be increasingly incoherent.
India 6/93, and election rolling on. Very, very happy, John!
“I’m feeling good about a Labor win. The good news in the Morgan poll (aside from suggesting Nielsen is an outrider) is in the detail.”
Surely Morgan’s credibility is now down the toilet? Despite being incredibly pissed at them after the last election, I too started to get my hopes up and believe their crap polls again.
NEVER AGAIN MORGAN U F*+xWIT!!
*sigh* Congrats to the Libs (and to True RWDB for mostly resisting the temptation to rub it in)
I have to say I am mildly amused to see that Tollner will torment Ken for another three years. Should be fun.
Ken you are a useless political judge!!!
Despite being a Liberal voter in Cairns (how long before the ALP confess the campaign was lousy despite media cheersquad accolades and the tassie forsests was a critical crunching LOSER especially in places like QLD and NT?) but i just lost $200 on ALP on centrebet!!!
Get out of the university environment mate you are obviously so way out of touch just like CS after Tolners (?) performance in Soloman you may be inline for some kind of bloggers dunce award after the way you have mucked him & written him ?????
Actually i was surprised to see Tolner on TV tonight one of the best media performers on the night!!! Which planet are you on boy ?????
The closest poll was Neilsen. Their forecast 54-46. So far according to the ABC just after the Latham concession speech the progess score is 52.6-47.4. This is much closer than Newspoll’s 50-50. And of course Morgan, the wooden-spooner of 2001, proudly retains its title with a 49-51.
Stan I’m so overwhelmed with positive feelings tonight I don’t feel like rubbing it in. That can come later. And we are romping home in the cricket as well. John Howard is having a terrific night!
Three things:
Galaxy was actually the closest poll (followed by ACNielsen).
The polls in aggregate picked with absolute confidence a Coalition win.
I have been saying for some time that something is seriously wrong in the House of Morgan. It is time to work out what.
Thersites
What do you mean I’m a uselss political judge? I predicted the Coalition to win with a slightly reduced majority, whereas it was in fact a slightly increased one. And on Tollner and Solomon I said:
I don’t detect a strong feeling against Dave Tollner in the Darwin community. As you hinted, he’s not really any worse than a whole swag of boofhead politicians in the NT, both past and present. The Newspoll marginals poll detects no movement in Solomon, but of course the sample size is too small to be terribly meaningful. So I’m afraid I just can’t tell you. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Labor’s Jim Davidson (an excellent candidate and a good bloke) gets across the line, but I expect it to be very very close.
If you punted on Davidson on that assessment and no other information, you’re a mug.
I think the Morgan poll is proving extremely reliable. You just have to remember to invert the results.
Unfortunately nielson was bang on the mark, god given the importance of polls these days, and no doubt the money in it, they must all have erections the size of the coalitions primary lead…
aftermath
Well the results of the federal election have certainly turned out so very differently to what every one had predicted,
aftermath
Well the results of the federal election have certainly turned out so very differently to what every one had predicted,