Today must surely be a watershed moment in the lead up to the 2007 election. Malcolm Farrs revelations concerning the secret Liberal party polling conducted by Textor Crosby, the findings that the voters see Howard as old and dishonest and
its recommendation to respond by blaming the States, must surely be a body blow to the Howard campaign.
This front page tabloid story is confirmation to the suburban reader, that its not just they as individuals who think that Mr. Howard is a slippery little so-and-so, but that its a broadly held view. One, in fact, thats becoming quite the fashion.
Tim Dunlop expresses what a helluva lot of people are now thinking.
Anyway, get used to it. From now until the election, everything good that happens in your life, Mr Howard will be taking credit for it. Anything bad that happens will be blamed on the States.
In the last little while weve seen the NT intervention, the Murray Darling Water fight, the Tassie Hospital usurpation, and now the States causing the interest rates blowout. The Prime Minister strains credulity with his implication that the States wield so much influence. The bizarre picture he is trying to paint of a Federal Government as the underdog in a battle with the States in the coming election (coordinated through Rudd), just wont wash. We Herald Sun readers at least know the basics. The local councils sit on the bottom rung, the States on the middle rung and the Federal Government at the top. To suggest that he, Howard, doesnt have control, and must intervene in State matters in this dramatic and sudden way, is at odds with the hierarchical picture that we have of our governments, and conflicts harshly with the image of authority and experience hes has successfully projected for a decade. If the States really were screwing thing up, how come hes only found out about it now after eleven years in office?
Mr. Howard sees the Textor Crosby revelation as water under the bridge.
It was done a couple of months ago, I think our position has improved since then.
His position may have improved, but theres every chance that it will decline again with the release of this dossier. After all who want’s to be associated with a desparate loser?
It was Schrödinger who noted that observing a system changes it. The unintended release of the Liberal Partys experimental observations on the tabloid front pages must surely have an effect on this system. Confirmation, for those who needed it, that the blame the States campaign is just another tricky little play to hold onto power, and all the more reason to believe that Schrödingers cat will be eating this little rodent for lunch.
Lastest: Most recent Textor Crosby strategy advice recommends name calling.
The Federal Health Minister has labelled the Opposition Leader “a wimp”.
Soon to follow: wedgies, dead-legs and Glad Wrap over the parliamentary dunnies.
Rex
Howard does have a point, one which i was trying to convey to Sheils who’s too “team” oriented to listen. Having wall to wall labor is a concern and for you to suggest otherwise is showing that you’re acting too “teamy” to listen too.
People may not like Howard for all the reasons you suggest, but more than few of the state socialist governments are getting on the nose (not all). The fact they can’t even manage their finances in boom times is quite funny and is something that you dismiss but lots of voters won’t. The suburban folk don’t like hearing about state run deficits in good times especailly when a lot of the money has gone into head count increases and pay rises for all.
JC, Yes suburban folk dont like hearing about states stuffing things up, but they don’t think in the terms that you assert. They don’t use the language that you use: “defecits”. They talk about home stamp duty, and hospital waiting lists, and crime levels and public transport conjestion and freeway cost overuns, and schools. They talk about the practical things that they know the States provide. But the big abstract economic jargon, well that’s the domain of the Federal Goverment, and “defecits” falls in that domain.
I tell you JC. Howard trying to blame the States for interest rates won’t work. People just won’t see how there can be a connection.
Fair enough Rex. The interest rate caper looks like a loser. They have a real problem on their hands . If people aren’t buying the good times story any more they have to scrape around for something. You can’t run a blank ad campaign….. or you can. Imagine that…. a blank ad on tv with the voice over telling you who its from.
What do you think if they put Turnbull in the seat?
I think the Government is lost whoever they put in. I like Turnbull, and if I were Turnbull I’d say no. Chances of pulling it off are minimal.
In fact better to let Costello take the leadership, burn him, and then boot the bastard when Labor gets on the nose the term after next. Turnbull then gets a clear run and can bring some much needed liberalism back into the Liberal Party.
Thanks Jacques. I would have struggled to have an uncertainty principle swallowing a rat. Probably can happen in string theory though – wouldn’t know myself, I never got past Fermat’s Last theorum.
Tim Dunlap’s blog commenters were about four to one againt El Rodente, most of them savagely so. Couldn’t believe I was reading an organ of Citizen Rupert.
Sylvester’s visage pretty well sums up the electorate’s mood.
I wouldn’t be hitting that ball, EC, misery shares company when it comes to that lot.
“Jc said:
What do you think if they put Turnbull in the seat?”
I think Turnbull’s seat is pretty close to being marginal now due to a redistribution. The new boundaries take in a lot of the gay areas of Sydney and many gays are not exactly enamoured of this goverment.
What’s interesting is where this information is coming from. In a cohesive, confident LNP, such a document would be locked in the safe. Tonight, ABC News announced it “understands” Newspoll due out tomorrow has little change from the last one. It’s been a long while since the ABC was able to make such a statement, and it wouldn’t do it lightly. So who’s drilling holes in the ship, and why?
The only logical answer is that there are powerful forces wanting Howard out. These implosions wouldn’t come from a wayward pollie, guessing that no one is that idiotic, so it’s safe to assume a group within the LNP have a very real agenda here. It can only mean this group wants Howard out.
This is a big week for JH. Textor/Crosby are Howard’s boys: that leak is very serious, as are the headlines. Tomorrow’s Newspoll is not going to be good. And then interest rates hit. Add these external pressures to what is clearly cooking within the LNP and we could be in for a very interesting time around the weekend or shortly after.
“The fact they cant even manage their finances in boom times is quite funny and is something that you dismiss but lots of voters wont. The suburban folk dont like hearing about state run deficits in good times especailly when a lot of the money has gone into head count increases and pay rises for all.”
Specifically, which state is running a deficit at present.
Dear Mr Rex,
I have pimples because I bought chocolate from my local milk bar. Is it the fault of the State Government who licence the shop or the Federal Government because they provided a tax cut.
Who can I blame?
Interesting indeed Robert. Mark Brissenden on the 7:30 Report was airing a bizzare theory that this was a deliberate leak.
The theory goes something like this: Back in 2001 an internal memo written by Shane Stone made its way to Laurie Oakes, which said that the government was “mean and tricky”. Just like now, the Government was viewed as being in trouble in the lead up to an election, but, so the story goes, the leaking of the memo was actually the point at which things turned around for the Government
Remember though, that this was the Tampa election – The post 9/11 national security freak out, which must surely blow that theory.
So unless the government has become superstitious, and are retracing their steps in the hope of getting their mojo back, then it defies understanding as to why they would deliberately leak it. It’s more likely that Mark Brissenden’s been on the plonk.
Dear Confused,
I’m not aware of any State government milk bar licensing regulations. But I do agree you need to blame someone for your problems.
It was hard to get the vibe with the 7.30 Report, Rex. I couldn’t tell which of these ways it went:
i) The leak was deliberate and vetted by Howard to bring these things to a head. It has been noted that one of Howard’s strategies is to focus on his weaknesses, give them air and then run with them. But it’s hard to see where he’d run with this, other than to attempt with it a device of ‘honesty’ and declare – yes, I am not perfect, yes, this is my strategy, an election is coming up and what do you expect. Having only heard but not seen his response in the Report “What leak, you mean the one in the papers” I couldn’t tell if it was feigned or if it was desperation. The concept as you say is to flush all this sentiment out now, and then bring on the heat with Rudd: again: the better devil you know.
ii) The leak was found and timed perfectly to cut into Howard. It’s the timing and actual content of this which makes it the natural choice that this is a genuine leak to do Howard damage. Why would Howard sanction a leak like this right now? He’s just announced the hospital intervention and had a bout of States-blaming, Newspoll out tomorrow would reflect internal polling and be no good for Howard, and then a threatening rates rise the next day. And all when Parliament resumes and Labor can gain the agenda with their choice and style of questions. That’s whack times three, plus Parliament.
If it’s Howard’s doing, he could well think there’s nothing to lose, and another attempt to focus the electorate and flush the system is in his step. The writing is on the wall for Howard, the only thing stopping him going apart from stubbornness is hope and faith in his ability. He could well have decided to fight this entirely in the marginal seats, without consideration for the consequences of the national coverage of that. If so, that’s an incredible situation we’ve found ourselves in – and it may work, for heaven’s sake. But to almost completely forego national headlines to win locally would have to be a first.
If this leak is not Howard sanctioned, those things above could be urging elements within the party knowing a challenge is not feasible to attempt to build up external media pressure a la Beazley and many others to force him to deal with it himself. That Barnett article and known consequences I think swings it in favour of an unsanctioned Howard leak.
Which brings us back to the 7.30 Report. They were subdued, given that the newsroom already had the leaked polling for tomorrow. Whether that was because they were genuinely deferential to the possibility of today’s leak being Howard sanctioned, or, they played very calm knowing full well that the water pressure is building, and their naturally breaking stories will come in the days ahead.
My guts says the internal pressure is building. I’m guessing this weekend’s papers will have something extraordinary to say, reflecting or heralding a significant event of some sort. APEC is coming, realistically, there are only a couple of weeks to make a change, with this week now proving the crucial one, if people want Howard gone.
Why assume it was Howard’s people in the party that wanted him gone leaking the Report, Rex? I mean the 7.30 report run by a former Whitlam staffer who shows all the sympathy to the right as the Taliban to a gal in a short skirt wouldn’t be my idea of a helpful soul. Why would any right winger trust Red Ken with the information. I kind find it hard to buy. However now it’s happened it could cause some sort of final battle of the Bulge sooner rather than later.
You think Howard would easily or is there going to be a bitter departure?
i hope the bastard stays till the election.i’m looking forward to watching him drummed out of the lodge.
He’s not focusing on you as a supporter I’d bet, yokel, as you probably never have voted right. He has as much interest in you as a voter as one does a third helping of pav. There’s probably 200,000 people who will decide how this election goes.
jc,i’m not standing for election so what he thinks of me is irelevant,but he is standing,and i and many others detest what he has done in his time in office.
Rex
There is something real strange happening in the betting markets. The labor bet has moved in while obviously the libs are moving out.
However the seat by seat betting has the Libs neck and neck… actually the libs are ahead by 2 seats in one bet. Maybe the swing isn’t as uniform as what we all think.
Quite weird.
Seat by seat betting market predictions:
Portlandbet: Coalition 75; Labor 73; Independent 2
Sportingbet: Coalition 73; Labor 75; Independent 2
We have Australia’s largest circulation newspaper, owned by one of the most shrewd and ruthless media barons ever,coming out with a headline
“Old, Tricky and Losing”.
Something’s in the air alright and it’s much more than just an analogy for joe cambria’s behaviour online.
My behavior, Nabakov.. Really? It would really be great if you kept your animosity confined to those blogs where they originate.
Oh, you can’t because you were dumped you from Catallaxy for behaving exactly the way you are here playing the commenter rather than the thread topic and hiding behind a moniker trying to expose others. It was described as cowardly more than a few times- recall?
Its not really a thread or a comment requiring that sort of hostility so maybe you ought to rethink your approach or double the dose of meds.
Glenn Stevens disagrees with you JC over the state of State balance sheets.
On the leak it could only have come from liberal state bureaucrats who get this polling. I suspect the mad ‘right wing’ nuts in NSW.
Howard is simply Whitlam in good economic times. Centralist, big spender and hater of State governments.
What animosity JC? Just a simple statement of fact. You are old, tricky and losing it.
Take for example:
“Oh, you cant because you were dumped you from Catallaxy for behaving exactly the way you are here playing the commenter rather than the thread topic and hiding behind a moniker trying to expose others.”
which is quite the opposite of the truth. I walked away from Catallaxy, you’re notorious for personal attacks to the point of emailing abuse to people off blog threads, you’ve often hidden behind a wide range of monickers and sock puppets haven’t you, ‘Dave Curry, ‘S Brid, ‘pessimist’ ‘ugly & single’ and ‘anonymous righty’? and it was you who was offering bribes for my personal details.
OK folks, we return you to your scheduled discussion.
Rex JC it is not all that unusual this far out from an election to have a seat by seat analysis such as that provided by the betting markets differ from the overall poll figures. Those standing against sitting members often have a great deal of difficulty getting much traction until the campaign proper gets going – unless they are high profile people such as Maxine McKew.
Howard is trying to set himself up as a tough little bloke battling the odds. He needs a some baddies to beat and he has picked out the states for that task. He also needs to look a bit knocked about and the Murdoch press are helping with that at the moment.
“What animosity JC? Just a simple statement of fact. You are old, tricky and losing it.”
That one is getting a little old especially coming for a depressed, lonely soul like you.
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Oh, you cant because you were dumped you from Catallaxy for behaving exactly the way you are here playing the commenter rather than the thread topic and hiding behind a moniker trying to expose others.
Ummm…. the owner of the site asked you politely not to return because you were always attacking other commenters in the same fashion that you’re doing right here and the little you contributed was just vapid nonsense. In other words he couldn’t stand you despite site’s very liberal comments policy.
I would treat that as an achievement, Nabs. You have to be very special getting dumped from the CaT considering it’s virtually open comments policy. You’re a genius.
He asked you not to return, so stop the lying. Maybe you ought to go the sites open thread section and ask if it is true. Go on, I dare you.
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Amusing how you’re attacking others for having a moniker. You are such a notorious coward, nabakov.
“and it was you who was offering bribes for my personal details.”
Absolutely I did, after the things you have pulled and said about other people while hiding behind your pathetic moniker. That’s right, I offered a $7,000 reward (that was going to be raised to $10,000 but you were asked to leave first) to anyone who would expose you for doing the sorts of things you have just done on this thread. I have no fear of doing it again, turkey. Don’t think for a moment I would be embarrassed in fact it would be kind of fun to see you squirm, as you would be getting your just deserts.
Any more irrelevant attacks…. on a reasonable thread that was going well.
Rex:
I’m sorry, but I will respond to disturbed attacks like that. You can leave the comments or delete them.
“the owner of the site asked you politely not to return”
Yet if I asked you to link to that statement, your ability to use google would mysteriously vanish again wouldn’t it?
And people aren’t asked to leave threads there. They’re either (extremely rarely) banned or put in moderation like your bumchum Birdy.
Actually you placed a bounty on Fyodor and I because our mockery had driven you into a wild fury and no one was responding to Birdy and yours frequent calls to ban people getting the better of you.
Also you are aware that you’re responding at one point in your 3.02pm comment to one of your own statements from your 1.43 am comment, aren’t you?
Old, tricky and losing it all right.
“Yet if I asked you to link to that statement, your ability to use google would mysteriously vanish again wouldnt it?”
Yes, because you possibly asked the site owner to remove it. As I said, go to the open thread there and ask the question. Or better still ask if you were dumped from the site.
He did the right thing by the way. Youre not missed.
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“And people arent asked to leave threads there. Theyre either (extremely rarely) banned or put in moderation like your bumchum Birdy.”
True, which is why I said it was a massive achievement on your part. You can’t be both vapid and abusive while expecting people not to see through that and show endless tolerance. On merits I think it has worked out well.
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“Actually you placed a bounty on Fyodor and I because our mockery had driven you into a wild fury and no one was responding to Birdy and yours frequent calls to ban people getting the better of you.”
Not really. I just found you standards quite appalling by hiding behind a moniker. You were sending everyone terminally insane with vapid comments such as suggesting that labor market reform “was a Ying and yang thang” (some economic theory!). You then got upset when people suggested you ought to read an introduction to economics. You made everyone hostile with your abuse, nabs, so don’t blame me you got turfed.
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“Also you are aware that youre responding at one point in your 3.02pm comment to one of your own statements from your 1.43 am comment, arent you?”
Yes. thanks. Just reaffirming what I said earlier.
Now, you ought to make a donation for being so annoying and irrelevant to the thread.
Here’s the link:
http://clubtroppo.lateraleconomics.com.au/2007/07/20/holding-out-the-hat/
So lets get back to the thread.
By the way your suggestion :
“We have Australias largest circulation newspaper, owned by one of the most shrewd and ruthless media barons ever,coming out with a headline”…..
Is vapid (as usual). Murdoch would have had as much input to the piece as you do in an AA meeting. He has well qualified editors that read the tealeaves and I’m sure his successful editor would be more than annoyed with that sort of overbearing input. I think Rupert is a little busy with other things such as the WSJ for the moment.
As vapid as ever, hey.
Now please go donate, big spender. It’s a good site and Ken is a decent guy who deserves that little support especially after the mess you have created again.
By the way feel free to carry out this discussion over at Cat. Which is where it all began and should reside.
“…because you possibly asked the site owner to remove it.”
Oh jeez joe, that’s pathetic even by your usual standards.I thought you had proof.
” just found you standards quite appalling by hiding behind a moniker”
You mean like Dave Curry, S Brid, pessimist ugly & single and anonymous righty?
“was a Ying and yang thang
Once again I bet your ability to find what I actually said will mysteriously desert you. Maybe I asked for that to be wiped too?
This whole reality-based just ain’t working out for you is it?
Nabs
Please… stick to the thread. You’re creating a spectacle of yourself.
I have neither the interest or the inclination to “go look for it”. As I said, go over there and ask if you were dumped. It was possibly lost in all the server problems they had and now your relying on it. We lost the thread of Doom that way and you were asked to leave around that time. Your call.
Or here’s a deal. Let’s bet even money $1,000 that were told that it would be a good thing for you not to return. We’ll ask the site owner if that was case.
Now go make the donation as penance for this most vapid (again) argument. Follow the link I left for you and do the right thing.
“Youre creating a spectacle of yourself.”
Really? I’m not the one who exploded into hundreds of words of unprovable allegations in response to a casual jab delivered in passing.
“I have neither the interest or the inclination to go look for it.”
Yes, I’ve noticed before that when you’re cornered into providing actual proof of your smears, it all suddenly becomes too hard.
“Lets bet even money $1,000 that were told that it would be a good thing for you not to return.”
Love how your claim has morphed from “Told politely to leave” to “dumped” to “told that it would be a good thing for you not to return.”
Even though you have form when it comes to welshing on bets, I’ll bite.
Here’s the conditions spelt out clearly so you can’t do a Birdy.
– I say I stomped off from Catallaxy vowing not to return ‘cos I was in a snit over what I felt were inconsistent deletion policies.
– You say I was asked to leave/dumped because of my appalling behaviour.
– The bet to be settled by the actual exchange in question retrieved from the Catallaxy archives (I think it was around the second week in October 2006).
– The loser donates $1000 to the Club Troppo server drive in the name of the winner.
GO!!
You’re not a bona fide member of Ozblogistan until you’ve had a death threat or some other form of intimidation from Stinky Joe. He only stopped spamming my site with death threats after I threatened him with legal action.
I note Left Writes also outed him for death threats last year.
And to think he is the number one right-wing commenter on a blog that laments the “adversarial culture” of the Left.
HEHEHEHEHE!!
Umm not exactly sure how this thread descended into a morass of navel gazing. But just to clarify matters, no one has ever been banned on the Cat, only put into moderation, sometimes temporarily. And while I didn’t ban Nabs I did lose my temper at him after he started whinging over deletion policies and tell him that it would be no great loss if he didn’t return. So how you interpret that is up to youse people.
I don’t know how this is going to be settled though other than taking my testimony for this since Catallaxy’s servers have gone down more times than an oral fetishist since Nabs exited and Nab’s contributions and the resulting thread are probably all wiped out.
“Really? Im not the one who exploded into hundreds of words of unprovable (sic) allegations in response to a casual jab delivered in passing.”
Yea right. This is just a mark of a friendly comment, you ass. Notice you’re using what you think is my real name while you’re all monikered up. Nice breeding by the way!
“Somethings in the air alright and its much more than just an analogy for joe cambrias behaviour online.”
Only thing is, dumphy I wasn’t badly behaved here. You were. Until you got in the act and wrecked the thread everyone was doing fine. Take a look
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Yes, Ive noticed before that when youre cornered into providing actual proof of your smears, it all suddenly becomes too hard.
It’s not a smear. It’s the truth and its funny as all hell you’re trying to deny it.
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Love how your claim has morphed from Told politely to leave to dumped to told that it would be a good thing for you not to return.
Pretty much mean the same thing seeing you didn’t exactly leave of your own accord.
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“Even though you have form when it comes to welshing on bets, Ill bite.”
Yea. Thanks.
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“I say I stomped off from Catallaxy vowing not to return cos I was in a snit over what I felt were inconsistent deletion policies.”
No. The site owner is good guy. You were asked to leave because you are mostly vapid, abusive, hostile and posting private information about people. Pretty much like you doing here. The owner almost never deletes comments. You’re making a shameful and dishonest assertion.
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“You say I was asked to leave/dumped because of my appalling behaviour.”
Yea. It was pretty bad and the owner suggested it would be a good thing if you never returned. Basically for the reasons I outlined.
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Not sure if the files can be retrieved. You obviously had a look too, which is why you’re so cocky. I went back earlier to take a look and the comment boxes were closed for that period. You know that obviously, hence the spring in your step.
Here’s the deal dumphy. Not your conditions. Mine, ok.
Let’s take it from the site owners word, as he is an honest broker. If he says you were told it was better you didn’t come back I win. He says you left entirely of your own you do.
By the way, Ill do what I like with the winnings, as I hardly need you to tell me anything. And the other thing, Ill need your real name and the address too as a moniker isnt good enough. In other words I wanna know who Im dealing with. You can send that to this site owner and he can forward it to me. He knows who I am. Its about trust and Im sorry but I wouldn’t for you a second after the stuff you pulled at Cat.
Now go make the donations and stop being a big talker. They need the money to set up a better server. Dont be so cheap.
Is this a head case convention. Nabs and mel. how funny.
Never death threats, munn. You’re lying.
You may want to explain to people you’re own threats and why you were moderated out of existence the other day for referring to my family members in the most vile way, making racial comments about me…. calling me a wog etc…. simply because I disagreed with you extreme views. Pretty shioking form
Meanwhile my family member wouldn’t know what a blog is.
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This what the site owner said to you Munn.
PS Im not wasting my time writing you anymore explanations. you should know this unwritten rule from precedent – this wasnt about the number of insults but what kinds of insults. Yours reveal a sick, misogynistic mind.
If you dont like it, why dont you go back to the welcome mat rolled out for you by your fellow lefties at LP? Oh, wait
Here’s the link:
Munn has been moderated out of LP too for deranged behaviour.
http://catallaxyfiles.com/?p=3048#comments
Nabs
Let’s see you fill up the coffers with that $1,000 now boyo. You lost.
I’m sorry jacques, I’d love to get back to the thread. It feels like two inmates escaped the asylum both still wearing their strait jackets.
So you are doing a Birdy. Wriggling around your original premise. Can’t say I’m surprised.
As Jason has sorta confirmed – what happened was I got pissed off over deletion policies, or the lack of them, and so said goodbye and he responded by saying it would be no great loss if [I] didnt return.
Only in your fevered cranky little old mind could that be transmuted into “…asked to leave”, “…didnt exactly leave of your own accord” and “dumped”. Really joe, you argue like a girl. A hysterical teenage girl.
“Ill need your real name and the address too as a moniker isnt good enough. In other words I wanna know who Im dealing with.”
OK, my real name is Dave Curry.
Nabs says:
“I say I stomped off from Catallaxy vowing not to return cos I was in a snit over what I felt were inconsistent deletion policies.”
Jacques, would you mind informing me that Nabs has forked over the cashola over the next few days. I guess with the addtional $1,000 you can buy an semi used Cray computer server that’ll work faster than the shuttle in orbit..
I demand naming rights though. Please call it Nabs 1 painted in RED on the side of the plate, near the engines. But please stay well away from the O ring.
That’s it from me and sorry Jacques Sorry.
Nabs
Here a good deal. You started this crap with the first nasty comment. I shouldna replied but i did. These guys don’t want that sorta stuff going on here and it’s fair enough. I always try and wear a tux when i’m here.
Let”s do this seeing we wrecked the thread (but seeing you started it).
I’ll donate $200 bucks if you donate $300. The extra $100 is the starting-the dust-up-penalty.
That relieves a little of the grief you and I started. Munn’s too mean to even ask. He’ll bit my head off.
If you agree, we do it tonight and let leave the hostlity for the thread of doom where it should reside, in the bottom of the harbor.
Strewth. I just got back and look what happened to the thread.
To answer your question on #22 JC.
Why assume it was Howards people in the party that wanted him gone leaking the Report, Rex?
That wasn’t my assumption. I was just confounded as to why the 7:30 Report made the suggestion that it might have been a deliberate leak. Robert in #17 explores my question quite well, and apparently comes to the conclusion that he doesn’t get it either.
Ahh well some things are beyond the ken of we mere mortals.