Poppycock du jour

“[T]he [Reserve] bank doesn’t lift rates two months in a row, never mind in an election year. Glenn Dyer, Crikey, 5th Sept 2007

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14 years ago

Actually the market as been raising rates non-stop since 22 August. Bank Bill rates are now 40 basis points above what are usually considered ‘norm’.

You forgot the link, Nicholas

Chris Lloyd
Chris Lloyd
14 years ago

You’re surely correct about RBA never raising in consecutive months. Looks like (http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/A02hist.xls) they did it in May and June 02, as well as Nov and Dec 03.

As for the second part of the assertion, it is less clear. There were no changes prior to the 2004 election, two drops prior to 2001 election and no changes in 1998. That doesn’t prove anything of course. But are you saying that the reserve is completely blind to politics? I know they are supposed to be ‘independent’. But when interest rates have been made a core electoral issue by Howard, every rate rise is (interpreted as) a public assault in his credibility.

Governors wouldn’t like to be seen that way. Not that I think Glenn Stevens would fall for this argument.

14 years ago

Maybe he should talk to Glenn Stevens. I really think people are underestimating just what a hard nut (not silly) this guy is turning out to be.

He was recently offering unsolicited advice to the japanese that they need to normalise rates quickly!

Stevens would raise rates on election day if he had to by the sounds of things.

My impression is that he is the hardest currency man in the west at the present time.

david tiley
14 years ago

The commmon swagger is tricky – the ascription of underhand and often political motives to public acts. One going the rounds at the moment is that the ABC is destroying the noble institution of the Natural History Unit for some kind of base motive, with several to pick from.

No-one does the analysis to find out how the unit is performing, how the market place has changed, whether it is still possible to make the kinds of films it was set up to do.. too complicated. Too much detailed analysis. Far better to just asume some cut-rate soapie motive and come over all agitated.

Mind you, I often wondered about the quality of the leaks about the Nine shenanigans, and the use of the crass drama model to explain it. But Gerald Stone’s book quotes chapter and verse on all of it. A huge case in which searching for the basest of motives is on the money.