Coalition Confidence Comeback Convincing : Commentators

Doubts have started to emerge today about the resilience of Kevin Rudds leadership in polls. Liberal Party sources confirm that doubts do exist, which has led to intense speculation among some parts of the media as to whether the ALPs ability to project an air of confidence has been eroded or if indeed they have overplayed their hand and are projecting too much confidence out of step with how much confidence the general public believe they should be projecting at this point in time.

A recent blunder by Mr. Rudd over details of tax thresholds is believed to be behind the apparent surge of confidence within government ranks, which only last week was at a low ebb as leadership speculation dominated the airwaves. Government confidence was further enhanced yesterday by the return of Treasurer Costellos voice in parliament, which propounded at an almighty volume on Mr. Rudds moral failings, and managed to capture most of the evening news sound grabs.

Whether this dramatic improvement in confidence levels will be accepted by the public is yet to be determined, especially when it is out of step with current polling, which at best only allows for patchy confidence recovery.

Will the Government go all out in an attempt lead public opinion on this matter when in recent years it has been happy to lag? Will Dennis Shanahan attempt to interfere with public confidence levels by claiming that they are different than actually measured by the polls? Quite simply yes. We can at least be confident of that.

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Guido
14 years ago

I agreed with Rod Cameron that even when the ALP polls were extremely high he said that it was a 50/50 chance that Labor or the Coalition would win this election. But he added that at this stage he would rather be in the ALP’s position than the Coalition.

I am sorry, but as someone who would like the end of the Howard government all these comments in the blogosphere that ‘Ratty is stuffed’ ‘Howard has lost and he knows it’ irritate me somewhat.

I am no expert in polls, but I am a bit distrustful of polling that shows that a large percentage of people are now committed to vote for one person or another. They may change their minds the morning of the elections, or Rudd makes a huge clanger a la Hewson with his Birthday Cake who knows?

Elections are notoriously difficult to win in Australia and really I can’t see it that it is in the bag just yet.

I always thought that the level of support in the polls for the ALP were unrealistic, and a drift back to the Coalition would be inevitable.

Whether this drift will get Howard back into government remain to be seen.

patrickg
14 years ago

lol Rex, so you’re saying, in the absence of any real evidence whatsoever, The Liberal party thinks Labor’s suddenly trouble?

I realise this is parody, but sheesh, I can read the Australian for the real thing, and get more of a laugh.

Seems to me the only doubts here belong to the Liberal Party, and same for the only media speculation.

Robert
Robert
14 years ago

Rudd’s problem coming up is the Libs have picked him for a thin skin, and he may bite back, which will do him in. He’s skimming through on a statesman thing and is a long way from being that in reality – the Libs will probably succeed in pricking that bubble but Rudd can’t take it lower himself.

Howard is looking dangerous again. How crook it is that our PM swings up or down with the polls, and governs or not so with them as well. This poll driven governance surely is beyond ridiculous now. That there has been a correction in the polls is the reason Howard can now feel he can stand stronger in the party room and his words will be heard there at least to some extent. That’s his necessity, moreso than how the party actually feels about the leadership issue being “dealt with”.

Some things against the Coalition team thing are: Costello has openly stated he supports the policy platform as it stands. So no backtracking there to make anything more palatable. After the huffing about team – and Howard looks to be able to gain a lot of ground on this, bringing in the Swan/Gillard/Smith et al factors, etc – at the end of the day, the public will be voting on either policy or personality, and they are not expressing acceptance of the former (in the main) or Costello (minus the makeover now denied).

Who will be LNP Treasurer is still yet to come to play.

It’s going to be messy.

Ken Lovell
14 years ago

The authority for this sudden surge in government confidence is Dennis Shanahan?

Gimme a break. The guy’s been writing stories like this for six months. Rudd forgets the tax thresholds and somehow that makes up for Howard’s cabinet losing confidence in his leadership? Suuure.

I don’t know who’ll win the election and I don’t intend to engage in pointless speculation but the endless inane ‘analysis’ by the likes of Shanahan has brought the credibility of the MSM pundits to a new low. It’s a perfect example of what Nicholas alluded to in his earlier post today.

Rex
Rex
14 years ago

It was Nicholas’ post that inspired me Ken. Just riffin’ off his idea.