Missing Link’s Election Prediction Dare

If you’re not with us, you’re against us.
Thanks to Arleesher at Stoush.net.

As was made clear in the previous edition, we don’t discuss politics in the Introduction to Missing Link. Aussies prefer to talk about sport. On Election Day we watch TV all evening with the intent and passion usually reserved for the Grand Final of whatever. This is notwithstanding the fact that the antics of Kerry O’Brien and Antony Green are of no practical value whatsoever, since we could easily just wait for a declaration from the Tally Room on Monday morning — they’re pure circus. The same might be said for opinion polls, and the bloggers like Bryan and William who diligently package the results for the eager fans.

But Real Aussies don’t just watch their sport, nor are they content to gather dry statistics. They predict outcomes, putting their money and reputations where their mouths are. So who do they think will win?

As far as money goes, Simon Jackman seems to be the expert, and this is how he sums up the betting market:

  • ALP favoured to win in 75 of 150 seats (# seats with average ALP win prob > .5)
  • ALP Expected Seat Count: 77.45 out of 150 seats. Yesterday: 77.9 out of 150. Computed as the sum of the 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities.

Andrew Leigh is a bit of an authority on betting markets too. For some, there is a lot mpre at stake than money: Shaun Cronin has noticed that the election as an experiment on the efficacy of prayer.

But in the blogosphere, reputation is the only real currency. A different Andrew, Elder in this case, is bold enough to make a prediction:

On 24 November we’ll see Labor with 90 seats (currently 60), Liberals 50 (75), Nationals 7 (11), CLP 0 (1), Independents 3 (3). I’ll be more specific about which seats later.

Who else dares to predict the 2007 Federal election? The ML team will assemble all predictions (made in posts or comments at any Australian blog) that come to our attention in the first ten days of the campaign. When the election result is declared, the author of the most accurate prediction will be crowned in this space. Predictions may involve as much or as little detail as you’re prepared to venture as to the margin or the seats affected.

But, contrary to popular belief, we are not omniscient. If you’ve made a definite prediction in a post or comment (or read someone else do so) please alert us to it in the comments below.

In the meantime, we resume normal service, with today’s correspondents — gilmae, Amanda Rose, Leagle Eagle and James Farrell.

But not before wishing Ken and Jen all the best for their wedding tomorrow. Have a wonderful day, you crazy kids.

News and Politics Stuff

It’s all politics, except for the last post.

This video posted by Ken Lovell has been linked by everyone else, so why not here?

Public Opinion thinks that there is a good economic explanation for why the Federal Government is facing defeat despite a buoyant economy.

Comicstriphero deconstructs the fallacy that it’s "too expensive" to introduce tax cuts which also encompass same sex relationships.

Solidarity thinks that the Labor Party’s history of representing workers is a positive, contrary to the Howard government’s scare campaign. Slim would like to know how many lawyers are on the Coalition frontbench.

dr. faustus wonders whether election campaigns are a waste of time.

John Quiggin suggests ‘disruptive marketing’ as a term to describe the PM’s tactics so far: make up your own rules and demand that your competition follow them.

Trevor Cook suspects that Government is on the nose in North Sydney, once a Labor stronghold but now populated by DINKs and comfortable middle class families. Ten percent is a big margin, though:

A long way to go and its an uphill task for Bailey and the ALP but they are having some real fun at Hockey’s expense a long the way.

Shake-up on 24 November, or just Gummo’s tremor

Shaun Cronin thinks that anxiety about industrial relations and global warming might deliver two central coast seats, Dobell and Robertson, to Labor.

Anna Winter shook the hand of the man who will save us from cane toads.

Mark Bahnisch has some links to new blogs covering the election.

Paul Norton links to the ACF’s ‘progress score card’ for the political parties on election issues.

Andrew Bartlett has started a campaign diary. He despairs at the media’s focus on the juvenile antics of the major parties. Tim Dunlop tries to rectify that with a quote from Andrew’s post and some news on Pauline Hanson: a must read for the voter who’s torn between Andrew and Pauline.

Tim Dunlop critiques the leaders’ ‘direct response advertisements’.

Pavlov’s Cat tries running the logic of the government’s anti-union advertisements backwards.

Gianna counsels against voting for Howard to spite one’s face.

Unsilenced at Talk it Out, while broadly sympathetic to the PM’s plan for more history in school, objects to the bullying approach to implementing it.

Apropos of promised tax cuts Ken Lovell blasts the government and governments generally for allowing public services and infrastructure to degenerate.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have an election campaign where a government ran on its record – not of record house prices and record consumer spending and record indebtedness, but its record of providing basic public services in an efficient and effective manner?

In the same spirit, Jeremy advises the Greens to make improving public services the central pillar of their platform, while tigtog argues that nurses need more than financial incentives to stay in nursing.

As promised, something a tiny bit less parochial to finish with: Eric Martin has an update on the Horn of Africa, where US clients in Somalia and Ethiopa continue to wreak havoc in furtherance of the War on Terror.

Life and Other Serious Stuff

A beautiful post by Audrey about saying goodbye to her mother. Beware, it will move you to tears.

Inspired by a talk from Margo Kingston, Bernice Balconey muses on the structural limits to objectivity in mainstream journalism.

Bridgit at Grodscorp examines that Chaser song in detail, finding it to be ninety percent accurate.

Teeth? Health Care in general? Housing? John Quiggin is trying to work out what types of consumption Americans are sacrificing in favour of the conspicuous varietry, given that median incomes are not rising, and nor is leisure.

Gummo Trotsky has taken a dried-out leaf out of Gianna’s book.

Andrew Leigh links to three pieces on the death penalty.

Don’t Build Rock Piles.
Clear enough, but why not? From the indispensable Stick Figures in Peril Collection via the indispensable tigtog.

The Yartz

Club Troppo’s Wicking in Malaysia and Bali.

If I Were Artistic Director of the Melbourne International Arts Festival …

The anniversary of Australia’s first comic book.

Those wacky Chaser funsters have their weekly day in the news cycle.

Pretty dollies.

Passing notes on The Goldoliers.

An updating of Aust/NZ music bloggers, and a poll on best Australian Band/Artist.

Darlene reviews Melissa Ethridge’s latest album.

Filking for the ALP. (youtube…and just so very wrong but amusingly so.)


(troppo sports stadium)

Guido at Rank and Vile features a tongue in cheek piece, theorising that perhaps the Ben Cousins drug saga will convert more people to following the beautiful game.

Mad, Bad, Sad and Glad

Your New Reality tells us that the US government has developed a real flying saucer. Should it be called an IFO (Identified Flying Object)?

Don’t use a train to shave. I can’t explain, you’ll have to look at the post yourself.

Confused at the polls because all your friends are voting for anyonebuthoward? SheHe‘s arleeshar. He’s here to help.

I blame Skynet.

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16 years ago

*She’s* arleeshar.

Joshua Gans
16 years ago

Good. And your prediction, Liam?

16 years ago

Me, 2am on the 25th, in tears, drunk as a muppet. Joy or despair, I’m pretty easy to please.

Ken Lovell
16 years ago

Hmph, like I would link to a video linked by everybody else. It was Tim, making a guest appearance on his own blog :-).

James Farrell
James Farrell
16 years ago

Deepest apologies, Ken, for that rare departure from scrupulous attribution. But now you’re here, what about a prediction?

16 years ago

ALP 91 seats.
Predict early, predict often.

murph the surf
murph the surf
16 years ago

Taking a position based on a cliffhanger.
ALP 72
Libs 66
Nats 8
Others 4.

El Nino
El Nino
16 years ago

ALP 79
Lib/Nat 69
Others 2

Based on a quick squiz at the polls, betting market and who my mum likes.

Ken Lovell
16 years ago

LOL the only prediction I’m making is that we’ll get a conservative prime minister.

stephen bartos
stephen bartos
16 years ago

OK, for what it’s worth, here’s a prediction of labor 77, coalition 69, independents 4. But of course, the longer the competition remains open, the more likely the last person to comment wins…BUT it also means an early poster who is right gets much more kudos.

Roger Migently
16 years ago

Since you ask, in an MA-rated post about beauty and the golden ratio (1.6188033:1, more or less) we did have this:

If there were beauty in politics it would be a nicely proportioned swing of about 7.8%. Majority of 38 : Labor 93, Coalition 55, Independents 2.

Completely unscientific, but very conservative compared to the ABC’s swing-meter at the time.

Mike Flower
16 years ago

I’ve counted each seat that Centrebet calls a “win” = ALP 79, Coalition 69, Independants 2 = 150 (as at 15 Nov 2007)

Mike Flower
16 years ago

Again I’ve checked the seats counted as “won” on centrebet as of tonight 11.15pm Perth time : 80 ALP; 68 Coaltion; 2 Independant. John Howards seat is included as a “won” as are Leichard, Longman, Petrie in Qld but the odds are so close, anything could occur.

Looking at Anthony Greens website, using the NineMSN by State poll conducted from 30 oct – 12 Nov gives 82 ALP, 66 Coalition, 2 Ind.

If you were to believe the totally biased “The West Australian Newspaper” its saying John Howards closed the gap, its a swing to the govt and it looks like a 50:50 bet. Oddly, the actual betting says the oposite. But, mind you, WA is a bit backward………

16 years ago

ALP by a RCH. (RCH? It’s a technical term implying fine tolerances, anecdotally coined by aerospace engineers during WW2. And also used here as a cryptic allusion to the possibility that some swinging female voters could well welcome a woman only an earwax choking incident away from the top job.)

Geoff Honnor
Geoff Honnor
16 years ago

Haven’t we already done this? Anyway, it’s still:

ALP 91, Coalition 57, Ind 2.

Bring Back CL's blog
Bring Back CL's blog
16 years ago

Yes we have.

ALP 91 Independents 3 Coalition 56

Mike Flower
16 years ago

ah, fellow bloggers, I’ve only just discovered this site. And, by chance I looked at betting trends at the same time, as they are seldom referred to in the media. And, you people are correct – its where people put their $$$ is what matters.

Honestly, you want to live in Perth, and be fed the one newspapers right wing bias to understand why Perth people are “somewhat different” to the rest of you.

And, I guess we will still watch the “Kerry O’Brien Circus” with interest but a wry grin……… Cheers from “enlightened Perth” (chokes, falls over)