Weekend Missing Link (More predictions, please!)

Alan Moir on the election, via Apathetic Sarah.

If Alan Moir is prepared to put his reputation on the line, and so is Alan Ramsay (despite having forfeited his spectacularly in 2004), why can’t bloggers and blog commenters be as bold? In response to last week’s challenge, a few readers dared to predict the election result. The bloggers themselves are generally circumspect, some dreading, others praying, that the PM will pull something out of the hat in the next two weeks. John Quiggin calls it for Labor, but isn’t specific about seats. Tim Dunlop notes that Malcolm Mackerras predicts a Labor win nation-wide and in Bennelong. Oops.

Please send in your predictions now. As Stephen Bartos pointed out in the comments last time, more cudos attaches to correct predictions if they are made sooner, so Monday is your last chance, before we tabulate the bids. But in the meantime, be BOLD, BOLD, BOLD. Nothing venture, nothing win. Win what? The prize is your name in lights after the election.

Ken is on honeymoon marking law essays, but should be back in the editor’s chair next week. Today’s Astounding Links were assembled by gilmae, Amanda Rose, Legal Eagle and James Farrell.

News and Politics Stuff

Mark Bahnisch continues LP’s tour of the marginal electorates with a visit to Herbert, where the Liberal member may be a casualty of his party’s earlier zeal for nuclear power. Labor, on the other hand, has a zeal for freeways, as Robert Merkel laments:

Labor is talking the talk on climate change. But are they prepared to actually change the trajectory of government funding for transport to help do something about it? Not at the moment, it seems.

Mark is also blogging at Polliegraph with posts such as this overview of tactics in general and irresponsible promises in particular. The site has some other interesting contributors, including one Emily Maguire, who notes Rudd’s inspiring stand on gay marriage and adoption.

Blloggers: the truth comes out.
(A Grodscorp creation)

On this topic, Bilegrip reminds us that Kev is a conservative Christian, and thus his ideas about homosexual marriage are predictable. By contrast, in a thoughtful and interesting post which also considers a few other issues, Jim Belshaw points out that the real question is whether Rudd would support same-sex civil unions. Meanwhile, Audrey has decided she might move to Tuscany after seeing a Tuscan anti-homophobia ad. Presumably the weather is another reason…and the food…mmm!

Rudd’s incessant reference to working families can never be enough for the Sear family. Family First, on the other hand, need to earn the privilege of using the word family. On behalf of his family, Jeremy puts the tough questions.

Andrew Elder gets in early and starts a post-mortem of the Australian conservatism.

Andrew Bartlett commemorates the sinking of SIEV X by quoting a letter from Irfan Yusuf, which if true is a damning indictment of the Liberals’ attitudes if not their fundamental values.

Helen was cruelly awakened from a daydream on her balcony by a report of the PM’s attempt to spin the issue of housing afordability:

So, in the Liberalverse, one can simulataneously harp on about the virtues of maintaining low interest rates (although everyone must know by now that the government doesnt control interest rates any more) and blame the housing affordability crisis on those selfsame interest rates?

Howard’s rhetorical conjuring has evidently got the better of Paul Kelly too. John Quiggin lists the several ways Australia’s leading political commentator is confused about Howard and the Kyoto Protocol.

King Solomon’s Mines: the quest begins.

For his part, Tim Dunlop is surprised that he could be surprised by the ferocity of the anti-union propaganda on the Liberals’ web site.

That this sort of class-based abuse should be unacceptable is easily illustrated by the fact that you can imagine the horror that would greet the Labor Party if they devoted their site to a similar demonisation of business representatives.

On the international side of things, Ken Lovell argues against prosecuting the pilots of the Garuda plane that crashed in March; and Robert Merkel sees Turkey’s attack on the PKK as tantamount to an invasion of America.

Life and Other Serious Stuff

Vest offers an lesson in the most important idea any human being can learn.

In steadily breaking news, Ken Lovell has been approaching, and indeed has evidently now reached, the conclusion that ABC TV is inept and anachronistic, is watched only by people who are lazy and unimaginative, and should be privatised.

Jennifer Sinclair’s thesis that Summer Heights‘ Ja’mie is feminism’s monster exasperates Helen.

Tim Lambert delves yet deeper into the Wasington Post’s War on Gore.

Now that the culture wars have clearly been won, John Quiggin tries to figure out who exactly won. Even if the winner was Keith Windbaggle, Kim doesn’t think he’s the man to save Quadrant, however strong his commitment to keeping penises out of the opera.

tigtog wants to sort once and for all what can and what can’t be described as ‘paradigm shift’.

The Yartz

A round up of theatre matters , including other blog posts.

The wonderful world of letterpress.

Laurie Anderson at the Opera House.

Dan Dingo controversy.

A steaming pile of dingoes’ kidneys in the The Age.

Shaun’s Newstopia.

Knitting!

Jeremy is not satisfied with Newstopia.

T.S.S

Sydney FC: The Branko Months. A retrospective.

Sarah defends Elka Graham for refusing to name names.

Mad, Bad, Sad and Glad

Your New Reality has a couple of very funny photos which prove that Gary Larsen was just sketching real life.

It could have been so spectacular. But it just fizzled.

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Fleeced
14 years ago

After using the ABC’s state by state prediction tool, I’m thinking it will be a narrow victory for the libs, but with the TPP favouring Labor.

Uncertain on seat of Bennelong, though I’m pretty sure Turnbull will maintain Wentworth. Remember, Turnbull won party endorsement against the sitting Liberal, who then ran against him as an independent at the last election – so his “real” margin is probably higher than the 2.5% reported.

Vee
Vee
14 years ago

I predict a narrow Labor victory.

I predict

Kingston, Braddon, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Parramatta, Hasluck, Stirling, Bass, Solomon, Moreton, Lindsay, Eden Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell and Deakin will fall to Labor

Liam
Liam
14 years ago

Vee, Parramatta is already held by Labor, it’s just redistributed to look Liberal. I think you’re right though, Owens should re-win it.
I predict the Democrats will be outpolled on Senate first preferences by Family First in every State but NSW, where they will be beaten by the CDP (Fred Nile’s lot, who have a gentlemen’s agreement with FF).
I predict John Howard and Malcolm Turnbull will increase their margins in Bennelong and Wentworth, leading to a few tears on polling night, though the election overall will go to Labor.
I predict the LDP candidate for Dobell will get something in the area of 500 primary votes.

Bring Back CL's blog
Bring Back CL's blog
14 years ago

the anhiliator is NOT a conservative christian.
HE is a liberal anglo-catholic.

Try studying which church he goes to!!!

Joshua Gans
Joshua Gans(@joshua-gans)
14 years ago

Homer, you don’t get to comment on this thread unless you make a prediction. So, out with it.

Nick
Nick
14 years ago

Labor to get 95 seats.

Geoff Honnor
Geoff Honnor
14 years ago

91 ALP; 57 Coalition; 2 Ind.

Niall
14 years ago

Balance in the Senate. And on the issue of balance, what about some Motorsport when it’s run, hmmmm?

Rex
Rex
14 years ago

ALP by six seats. It’ll be trumpeted as a Howard triumph by Dennis Shanahan, restoring the coalition to a respectable defeat in the face of overwhelming odds. The hunt will begin for someone to blame however. Bolt and Albrectson will remind everyone that if only they’d been listened too, and the job handed to Costello, that Howard’s legacy would be unblemished, providing a symbolic victory at least, and setting thing up for next time. Henderson and the other arch conservatives will be ropable that the Bolt and Albrectson didn’t stick with the ‘disunity is death’ discipline that had stood them all in good stead for eleven years. No one will be able to agree on which bits of the culture wars they won, and the conservative columnists will descend into a spiralling round of hissy fits and accusations. Mirroring very much what will be happening in the Liberal party.

ChrisPer
ChrisPer
14 years ago

Liberal by four seats, and like the result of the Republic referendum: the entire gobsmacked commentariat will explode in bile against racist Australians, and pretend their predictions never happened.

Bring Back CL's blog
Bring Back CL's blog
14 years ago

I agree with the Honnored Gentleman

Doug
Doug
14 years ago

ALP to win 25 seats: House of Reps: ALP 84 seat – 3 Independents, 63 coalition

ALP to win:
NT – 1 seat
Tas – 2 seats
WA – 1 seat
SA – 4 seats
Vic – 6 seats
NSW – 5 seats
Qld – 6 seats

ALP to win
Bennelong but not Wentworth

Jim Belshaw
14 years ago

For what it’s worth, and that’s not a lot, my best guess is that the vote will be all over the place.

Labor will get big swings in its existing seats and in some of the metro seats including Liberal blue ribbons. I think that there is a better than fifty fifty chance Mr Howard will lose his seat, with a strong chance of a whitewash in Adelaide. There will also be swings in the so-called mortgage belt.

Outside the metro, the vote will again be all over the place. However, here I expect the coalition to hold its own. My feeling is that the commentators including bloggers are unrepesentative.

The end result? A Labor victory, but by less than the polls predict.

In seat terms, I am not watching the usual suspects but the New England/NSW north coast seats.

In the senate, I am watching the Green vote. I think that this is soft. I badly hope, and this is personal prejudice, that the Dems do better than expected. I think that Andrew, as an example, is worth his weight in gum nuts.

My best guess? The coalition will hold up better than expected, supported by Family First preferences, leading to a non- Government majority.

There you go, forecasts made in uncertainty and ignorance.

MarkL
MarkL
14 years ago

A week ago, I was thinking along the lines of ALP by 13 seats. Now? ALP by 8.

MarkL
Canberra

Tim Lambert
14 years ago

Labor by 30.

derrida derider
derrida derider
14 years ago

A comfortable but not annihilating Labor victory – say a 12 seat majority.

The two-party vote will be lopsided (say 57-43) but this won’t translate into a landslide in seats this election. But the consequent redistributions will greatly help Labor in the next one.

The Greens to hold the balance of power in the Senate, which should make climate change policy interesting.

Robert
Robert
14 years ago

I predict a face on Janette which could curdle milk at five hundred paces.

David Rubie
David Rubie
14 years ago

Gee Robert, how about a prediction that isn’t already true?

Labor: 100 seats even. The libs will not get through the next four weeks without turning into a desperate rabble, the stitching is already coming undone.

saint
14 years ago

Um, I predict Xenophon will win a seat in the Senate, just as he did in the SA parliament: on the back of voters who are simply pissed off with all major political parties. I almost think SA – or at least Adelaide – will go wall to wall Labor (although my electorate’s Liberal candidate seems pretty OK and might, just, get, up)

I also predict the Dems will be annihilated, the Greens will lose ground, two independents will win seats in the lower house (including O’Connor, stupid move dumping him, Labor)

Oh, and I predict that I will have a tough time chosing who I want to lose their seat most: Howard or Turnbull and that I might be disappointed on both.

Jezery
Jezery
14 years ago

Local ABC radio interviewed astrologer Milton Black last Friday. Based on the date of the election and Howard and Rudd’s bithdates, he predicts that the Libs will hold government with a majority of about 5-7 seats.

He also predicted that the RBA will not raise rates next week.

Personally, while I think there will be a substantial 2PP swing to the ALP, I can’t shake the feeling that Howard’s targetting of marginal seats will work and Rudd will fall a couple of seats short of the 16 he needs to win.