Oh, Darling… please don’t ask.. it’s too horrible!
Here, for the record, are Troppo readers’ election predictions from the last two editions of Missing Link. No more entries will be accepted unless they fall outside the current range, in which case they’ll be accepted until Friday. On the other hand, if you know of specific predictions on other blogs made in the last two weeks, let us know and we’ll incorporate them.
A quick reminder of the basics, to give some context:
The current vector is: Coalition 87, Labor 60, Independent 3. One National-held seat (Gwydir) has been abolished in Queensland, but a new one (Flynn) has been created, so they cancel out. But with the retirement of the Independent Peter Andren, the Nationals are expected to win Callare. So, with two independents remaining, Labor would need to take 14 seats from the Coalition parties to have a chance of forming government (both would have 74). If they take fifteen they will have half the seats, and with 16 an outright majority. A uniform four percent swing would deliver this result.
The seats requiring less than a seven-percent swing are as follows, those with asterisks being the ones Antony Green seems confident Labor has in the bag.
Tasmania: Bass, Braddon.
Queensland: Bonner*, Moreton*, Blair, Longman.
WA: Hasluck*, Stirling*, Cowan, Swan, Kalgoorlie.
SA: Kingston*, Makin*, Wakefield*, Boothby, Sturt.
Victoria: Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, McEwen, McMillan.
NSW: Dobell*, Eden-Monaro*, Lindsay*, Bennelong, Wentworth, Page, Paterson, Cowper, Robertson.
In this table predictions are ranked in order of the Labor majority either stated or implied in the House of Representatives. Unfortunately not many people ventured a predictiction on the Senate. You’ll have to visit Andrew Bartlett for that. There is a third column for any additional details supplied, which may compound the glory — or the disgrace, as the case may be — enjoyed by the entrant on election night.
|Entrant||Prediction: winning party and majority||Additional Predictions|
|David Rubie||Labor by 50||Labor 100|
|Nick||Labor by 40||Labor 95|
|Roger Migently||Labor by 36||Labor 93, Coalition 55, Independents 2|
|haiku||Labor by 32||Labor 91|
|Labor by 30||Labor 90, Liberals 50, Nationals 7, CLP 0, Independents 3.|
|Geoff Honor||Labor by 32||Labor 91, Coalition 57, Independents 2.|
|Doug||Labor by 18||Labor 84, Independents 3, Coalition 63
ALP to win:; NT – 1 seat; Tas – 2 seats; WA – 1 seat; SA – 4 seats; Vic – 6 seats; NSW – 5 seats; Qld – 6 seats; Bennelong but not Wentworth
|Derrida Derider||Labor by 12||Two-party vote will be lopsided (say 57-43).|
|Labor by 8||ALP 79, Lib/Nat 69, Others 2|
|Rex Ringschott||Labor by 6|
|Stephen Bartos||Labor by 4||labor 77, coalition 69, independents 4|
|Vee||Labor by 0||Kingston, Braddon, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Hasluck, Stirling, Bass, Solomon, Moreton, Lindsay, Eden Monaro, Bennelong, Dobell and Deakin|
|Jezery||Hung Parliament||ALP 74|
|murph the surf||Hung Parliament||ALP 72, Libs 66, Nats 8, Others 4.|
|Jim Belshaw||Labor by narrow margin|
|Patrick||Coalition by 3||Chester
|Liam||Democrats outpolled on Senate first preferences by Family First in every State but NSW, where they will be beaten by the CDP; Howard and Turnbull increase their margins in Bennelong and Wentworth,|
|saint||Xenophon into the Senate; SA – or at least Adelaide – will go wall to wall Labor; Dems annihilated; Greens will lose ground; two independents will win seats in the lower house (including OConnor)|
|Robert||A face on Janette which could curdle milk at five hundred paces.|