In today’s Crikey! Glen Dyer tell us that the RBA has been “caught badly short”.
In the statement accompanying today’s decision to hold rates at 6.75%, the RBA recognised the worsening in global conditions. In fact the sharp increase in turbulence and volatility was why interest rates remained on hold:
The Board remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. But given the heightened uncertainty about the international outlook and the local trends in wholesale borrowing costs, both of which could have a bearing on inflation over the medium term, it judged that the current stance of monetary policy should be maintained for the time being.
But the minutes from last month’s Cup Day meeting, which were released today, show a much more sanguine view of the global economy and financial market conditions.
No doubt Mr Dyer is a good conscientious journalist, but so inured is he to the breathless phrases of journalistspeak that a sober change of mind by a sober, sensible agency in response to changing circumstances shows that it is being “caught badly short”.
As my thirteen year old daughter would say . . . “whatevs”.
“When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?” – J M Keynes
If the Reserve Bank get beaten up for slightly changing its opinion (in line with the facts), what hope do we have that politicans will feel comfortable to alter policy when reality requires it.
Well the fact that they feel comfortable changing it when reality doesn’t so require might be some comfort…
p79 of the Economist last Friday has an article regarding global liquidity, which is now looking pretty awful over the last month. It also comes with a little graph showing spreads on Euro bonds over the last 6 months.
While this is not directly relevent, merely indicative, it is in the “holy shit” territory. Spreads spiked from 10-20 basis points in September, and have now done it again rising to around 40 in the first 2 weeks of November.
I can see that a doubling in September mightn’t have troubled the RBA too much in October when they are concerned primarily with Australian conditions, but a second doubling a few days later certainly qualifies as “when the facts change”.
Isn’t this the sort of basic judgement and financial literacy that a journalist commenting on RBA decisions should have?
whatevs – I like that.
Nicholas, you might be interested in this: