Counter-intuitive findings on road accidents

A feed on US road accidents summer vs winter etc. A feed from Organizations and Markets.

Does the inclement weather have you worried about sliding off the road to an icy death? If so, Ive got some good news for you. On a per-mile driven basis (or per-trip or per-minute traveled), winter is actually the least likely time to get killed behind the wheel. Summer drivers have a risk of 1.24 fatalities per 100 million miles driven compared with 1.01 during the winter. For males behind the wheel of an SUV, those summer and winter numbers are 1.39 and 0.87, respectively.

Thats what we discovered when we teamed with the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety to develop TrafficSTATS an interactive website that merges traffic fatality and personal travel information to generate risk estimates. The site generates risk estimates for combinations of age, day of week, month of the year, gender, hour of the day, drivers, passengers, and vehicle types. Did you know that a man behind the wheel is 80% more likely to get killed than a woman? Or that 16-20 year-old drivers have about the same fatality risk as 75-84 year-olds?

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John Quiggin
John Quiggin
12 years ago

Not being from the US, I don’t have a strong intuition about winter vs summer – are a lot of winter miles driven under snow and ice conditions?

The findings on men and women and on very young and very old drivers (both higher risk than experienced, non-elderly) are very well known; perhaps counterintuitive to elderly male drivers who haven’t updated their priors in 50 years or so.

John Quiggin
John Quiggin
12 years ago

Do you have a suggested replacement? The Wikipedia article suggests Paul Feyerabend and George Soros as being influenced by Popper: would they be more to your taste? Or are there other post-Popperians I should know about?

John Quiggin
John Quiggin
12 years ago

I regret to say I found Boland incomprehensible, and your review suggests the I’m not alone, for example

This book is packed with arguments that require close attention and defy adequate summary. If these arguments are robust) then the book is a white dwarf that will exert enduring influence when it is more widely read and understood.

I’m perfectly happy to believe the suggestion (if I read you right) that Lakatos stole the SRP idea from Wong – it’s a good idea whoever came up with it.