I hate to say this but all my forecasts over recent months seem to be proving right.
First, we have over-done monetary policy (see my contributions in Club Troppo, January 29 and February 4th 2010).
Second, our expansionary fiscal policy was on the right scale (although mismanaged at times) e.g. see my Club Troppo piece of February 25).
Third, the world is now entering the “early stages of a third depression”, due to a general fetish about public debt (e.g. see Krugman piece of June 28th).
Finally, any future macro-policy change (to the extent it is needed in this country) must rely more on additional spending (on health, education and infrastructure) and less on labour market deregulation and reductions in taxes (see for example my CT piece of March 18, 2010). The people who are most vulnerable (the medium to long-term unemployed and under-employed) are the real victims of the global financial crisis.