Predict the election, raise funds for Pakistan

I have no doubt about it. Labor will be returned with an increased majority.

With one week to go, the election campaign has descended to a level of debate at which rational argument is irrelevant. There’s little point in having a reasoned position on greenhouse policy, offshore processing or the efficacy of fiscal stimulus measures, if either (1) the parties are in agreement anyway, or (b) the parties’ most emphatic claims are nothing more than generic scaremongering, for example that Labor/Coalition policies will push up the cost of living, raise interest rates, or threaten jobs. It’s only a short step up from “Gillard/Abbott! Ooogaboogah!”

The contest is of interest only as a sporting spectacle. On that basis, I announce the following competition.

Predict the result of the election for the House of Representatives. Responses should be entered in the comments thread for this post. You should specify which party/parties will win government, and the extent of the majority. At present, for example, the composition is: ALP: 83, Coalition parties: 63, Independents: 4. So the Government has a majority of 16.

Update: The amount pledged for predictions accurate within five seats is now $100 $150 $200.
Update II: The deadline is extended to Thursday Friday. Have a stab, if you haven’t already.

As a result of adjustments to electoral boundaries, one Labor seat (Lowe) has been abolished, and one new, notionally LNP, seat (Wright) created. The seat of Ryan (whose occupant was expelled by the LNP) can be regarded as a Coalition seat. Taking these considerations on board, the status quo is effectively 82-65-3. This means that if the Coaltion can wrest seven to ten additional seats away from the ALP,we will have a hung parliament. Winning eleven will bring them government in their own right.

However, the Coalition parties would meanwhile need to hold on to six of their own seats that have become notionally Labor due to other boundary changes.

According to Antony Green’s pendulum, a uniform 2.3% swing would be just sufficient: to take Robertson, Macquarie, Bennelong and Eden Monaro in NSW, Solomon in the NT, Corangamite and Deakin in Victoria, Hasluck in WA, Longman and Flynn in Queensland, and Bass and Braddon in Tasmania. That’s twelve seats, but they’d need the extra one to compensate for Greenway, which they’d lose without a bigger swing.

But swings are never uniform, so there is scope for a feast of different predictions.

This brings us back to the rules: Additional details, including a Senate result or individual seat predictions, are optional, but will be advantageous in the event of a tie.

The prize is essentially the glory, with the option of a guest post on how you knew what would happen.

For every prediction (of the extent of the majority) that is accurate within five seats I will donate $50 to the Red Cross’s Pakistan flood appeal (to a limit of $500). If any other Club Troppo bloggers, commenters or readers care to pledge an additional five or ten dollars on top of my fifty, that would be very welcome.

The deadline is Wednesday 9pm Thursday 9pm. I’ll tabulate the predictions when I have enough to warrant it.

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Nicholas Gruen
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Nicholas Gruen(@nicholas-gruen)
11 years ago

I’ll match your offer – up to another $500.

francis
francis
11 years ago

Labor to win with a majority of 12
A few give-and take seats changing hands both ways but Gillard to hold on with not much bloodshed.

Stephen Hill
Stephen Hill
11 years ago

OK I’ll be first mug to guess

Lab: 90 Coal 57, Ind: 3 (majority of 33)

Cortex
Cortex
11 years ago

Lab 80 Ind 3 Green 1 L/N 66

conrad
conrad
11 years ago

I’ll go:

Lab. 77-66-7 (majority of 4).

I’ll donate $50 no matter what. I’ll also bet that Steve Conroy will have the worst swing against him of any Labor candidate.

Grant Musgrove
Grant Musgrove
11 years ago

Labor to win with a seven seat majority in the lower house.

Grant Musgrove
Grant Musgrove
11 years ago

And to ensure I maximize the probability of being hopelessly wrong, the Greens to end up with a total of 9 Senate seats.

FDB
FDB
11 years ago

ALP: 79
Coal: 67
Green: 1
Other: 3

Daniel Harvey
Daniel Harvey
11 years ago

ALP 78
Coal 68
Green 1
Ind 3

Based on:

ALP to lose Melbourne, Hasluck, Robertson, Macquarie, Flynn, Leichhardt + one other in QLD (Longman, Dawson or Forde)

ALP to gain McEwan and Greenway.

Corin
Corin
11 years ago

Labor: 80
Coalition: 66
Green: 1
Other: 3

That might be a tad optimistic to Labor …

Edward Mariyani-Squire
Edward Mariyani-Squire
11 years ago

ALP: 75
Coalition : 71
Greens: 1
Independents: 3

Edward Mariyani-Squire
Edward Mariyani-Squire
11 years ago

ALP: 55
Coalition: 43
Greens: 1.5
NewsCorp: 30
Independents: 3.5
Eaten by angry bears: 17

John G
John G
11 years ago

ALP: 78
COALition: 67
Greens: 2
Inds: 3

Richard Tsukamasa Green
Richard Tsukamasa Green(@richard-green)
11 years ago

ALP – 86
LNP – 60
IND – 3
GRN – 1

And a subsiduary prediction of a swing to the ALP in Bennelong (because the sitting member effect was why the LNP vote was so high last time, not why they lost it)

Jaybee
Jaybee
11 years ago

Neither of the two parties will win. One of them will lose worse than the other.
And I will match whatever James himself contributes.

Freddy Hutter, TrendLines Research

Watching with fascination again from the Yukon!

Labour 81, LNP 66, Others 3 … majority of 6.

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[…] quite puzzled by the negative, disillusioned tone of much of the blogosphere and MSM commentariat coverage of the federal election campaign.  I’ve actually been quite […]

John Quiggin
John Quiggin
11 years ago

I’ll also match your offer.

Karl
Karl
11 years ago

ALP – 74
LIB/NAT – 72
IND – 3
GRN – 1

I predict a hung parliament.

Alice
Alice
11 years ago

ALP 79
LNP 59
NEWSCORP/BIG MINERS 6 (I agree with Edward – the NEWS COALITION)
IND 3
GRN 3 (please god)

Margaret
Margaret
11 years ago

ALP 76

LNP 62

IND 3

GRN 9

Long Live KR

David Kellam
11 years ago

ALP: 74
LNP: 71
Greens: 2
Other: 3

i.e. Neither party will hold majority in their own right but the ALP will be ahead. Furthermore, the Senate will be subject to a Greens balance of power.

And it’s unfortunate for the public Conroy is a Senator, because he’d definitely lose his seat if he were in the lower house. (That said, at least the whole state gets to nominally express their displeasure as opposed to a single electorate)

Nicholas Gruen
Admin
Nicholas Gruen(@nicholas-gruen)
11 years ago

ALP 73, Lib 73, Greens 1, Other 3.

hc
hc
11 years ago

Liberals just falling short in terms of absolute number of seats but forming a government with the help of the independents in a ‘hung parliament’. Good riddance to the Labor rubbish and to their appalling government but there are real problems with this victory as it will stall needed reforms in the Coalition. The most forgettable campaign that I can recall in 40 years.

hc
hc
11 years ago

BTW whatever happens I will donate $100 to the Red Cross Pakistan relief effort.

Jack Strocchi
11 years ago

I posted this at Larvatus Prodeo a week or so ago. Apparently it and many other like it have given birth to a new branch in the philosophy of science: Strocchiology. Formally defined as “looking over how right or wrong one has bee…a peculiar science known to insiders as Strocchiology”.

Jack Strocchi
11 years ago

Could Club Troppo’s webmaster use his good offices to post this comment prior to the election? It is eerily prescient and it would be a shame to deny the Club a peek into the future at this late stage.

Jack Strocchi
11 years ago

I’m waiting…[makes a brief note on file, drums fingers impatiently on desk, gazes anxiously at clock]

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[…] take no pleasure in being spot on in my election eve forecasts. Not even in probably winning the ex ante tipping competition held at Club Troppo – ex post, yes, I don’t stand a chance. Well done Nick. Predicting the outcome of course does […]

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[…] it’s customary to draw again, and I wish I could think of an excuse to offer the prize in the election tipping contest to someone else. But you have to hand it to Nicholas for getting the House of Representatives result […]