The world’s most inscrutable man?
I’m probably completely wrong about this, so please help me improve on the analysis.
1. Windsor, Oakeshott and Katter do not want another election. They mean to enjoy the leverage the election outcome has given them.
2. They have consistently invoked ‘stability’ as their main objective in deciding which side to support.
3. Stability means one side commanding at least 77 votes in the House of Representatives. A government with only 76 votes would be just a single by-election away from losing its majority, a state of affairs that most people would regard as too precarious.
4. Given that Labor now has the formal support of the the Greens member Adam Bandt, both sides currently have 73 votes.
5. Therefore, a stable arrangement requires that all four independents choose the same side.
6. Andrew Wilkie has no particular loyalty, and will make his choice independently.
7. The three ex-Nationals do not want to be seen to actively favour Labor, as their mostly conservative constituents will punish them for doing that. So they need a really good public rationale to do so. The stability argument will suffice for that purpose.
8. They can use the stability argument if Wilkie declares his intentions first, even if they don’t concede they are merely following Wilikie.
9. Wilkie is playing his cards very close to his chest, and they don’t know which way he will go. So it’s best for them if they wait for him, in case he opts for Labor.
10. Therefore, it all comes down to Wilkie.