Well whether they win or not the ‘Colliwobbles’ come from another time, long, long ago in the late sixties and early seventies when the Collies used to finish first and then not win, either through some bad luck (64, 66, 70) or through peaking a bit early or going into the finals in a form slump. It was pretty depressing. We’ve lost lots of GFs since then, but we’ve been the worse side in the GF, so it’s not so surprising that we lost. GFs kind of do that. They tend to select the better side.
Anyway, this time we’re the best side, having put on a half of football against Geelong last week that needed to be seen to be believed. (I saw it and believed it). We will win again tomorrow unless:
- something nasty happens. An early injury reduces your chances of winning by around 17%, two injuries is worse etc
- the Sainters close down our forward line. This is quite possible. They choke their enemy pretty effectively. And as I’ve said, there are some things – like intelligent leads, that we pretty much do without on our forward line. If we start kicking lots of points, end up taking our shots from the boundary line and don’t seem to be able to find forwards, St Kilda are in the game and may close us down and then beat us.
- St Kilda’s big forwards, particularly Nick Riewoldt, have a good day. Collingwood’s backline is one of the best in the business, but it has a weakness – subduing big forwards (sigh)
But the most likely outcome is a comfortable win. I can hardly believe I’m saying that. I can certainly say I’ve not expected to win a GF since 1990. And guess what happened then. We won.
All Troppo readers are required to have some slight sympathy for me tomorrow – unless you barrack for the Sainters, like my friend from Harkaway Primary School, John Chandler.
But the name “Barry Breen” may not be mentioned.