Did the markets predict the Bin Laden capture?

No: the betting markets at Intrade showed a steady downward movement in the ‘probability that Bin Laden would be captured or neutralised before midnight June 30 2011’. On May 1, the probability was deemed to be 2.7 % (down from about 10 percent a year earlier), with the close on May 2 being 99% (presumably allowing a 1% probability that the claims on the media releases would later be reversed).

Implies market probability of capture Bin Laden before the end of June 2011

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Incurious and Unread (aka Dave)
Incurious and Unread (aka Dave)
10 years ago

Paul,

Obviously as the deadline of 31st June 2011 [sic] approached, the probability of capture before that date would decline, other things being equal.

Paul Frijters
Paul Frijters
10 years ago

Dave,

of course. But the lack of any upward movement closer to the date does tell you something: no leaks. No one making a quick buck by trading on inside information. Not that the volume was high enough to make serious money of course….

Chris Lloyd
Chris Lloyd
10 years ago

If we can let the Al Queda middle ranks know about the betting markets, we might be able to induce them to dob their leaders in to make a dishonest buck!

Patrick
Patrick
10 years ago

Clearly soldiers/CIA agents are more trustworthy than securities market advisors and traders…

observa
observa
10 years ago

Or perhaps we didn’t see what the usual suspects in the ME began to see. Their useful idiot had become surplus to requirements-
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ME03Df02.html?sms_ss=twitter&at_xt=4dbebdf5a4ad791a,0