Forecasting: the (Open) Road Ahead

Below the introduction to a piece in The Mandarin today.

We shoot the breeze about who’ll win the next election or footy match. Virtually none of it helps predict the future. But we’re driven on … as if somehow it will.

We do it with the economy. People ask economists how they see the future and most role-play the expert when the honest, indeed expert answer would usually be the answer Treasurer John Kerin gave to journalists when they asked when economic recovery would take hold. “Your guess is as good as mine”. Still, refusing to play the role is no way to hang onto it. Kerin was relieved of his duties as Treasurer shortly after this outbreak of candour.

Even so, myriad decisions are predicated on specific views of the likely future. And skilful effort can improve economic foresight. If only a little. That’s why Treasury asked Warren Tease, veteran econocrat fresh from a lengthy mid-career in the private sector, and now principal adviser in Treasury, to report on its forecasting.

The rest of the article on the link above.

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I am and will always be Not Trampis
I am and will always be Not Trampis
5 years ago

I was wondering what bugs was doing.

Thanks nick

I am and will always be Not Trampis
I am and will always be Not Trampis
5 years ago

His nickname.He went to Schroders I think from the RBA.

Ah the memories

I am and will always be Not Trampis
I am and will always be Not Trampis
5 years ago

Bugs a veteran econocrat? He left the Research department of the RBA before he was 30.

Now he could very well either rejoined the RBA or joined Treasury at a later date but if not that description would be inaccurate.

He would certainly have the expertise on the subject by working in the private sector but be definition if he was stil in the private sector he could not be an econocrat let alone a veteran one!