Me on forecasting

Above is my presentation to CEDA’s Outlook conference in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago. I came after a McKinsey’s consultant talking about digital disruption which is always a fun thing to present or listen to because there are lots of ‘wow’ moments when you wheel out the cool ways people are using data and so on. Anyway, I was pleasantly surprised when people said that they’d found my presentation very enjoyable and instructive – which is what I was hoping for. If you’re interested, the original powerpoint slides can be downloaded from this link.

A few months on, CEDA asked me to give a similar talk which is here. They have also posted my response to questions which some people may find of interest. I got a difficult question and (thinking to myself ‘do I really want to do a reverse triple pike with twist?’) suggested how it might be made more difficult and then tried to answer that.

I was also on a panel the video of which I reproduce below. I certainly didn’t intend to take the discussion towards one of my hobby horses of deliberative democracy, but the occasion seemed to call for it. Several people told me how ‘inspiring’ it was – so there you are. Would I lie to you? Would they lie to you? No. We wouldn’t. Will you be inspired? As Lady Brackness says, statistics are sent for our guidance and if they were inspired, of course you will be inspired? 1  The video is over the fold. 

  1. This forecast is certified to the 3% accuracy level plus or minus the usual statistical margin for error.
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1 Response to Me on forecasting

  1. Nicholas Gruen says:

    Nice line of Tim Harford

    Yet forecasts are the junk food of political and economic analysis: tasty to consume but neither satisfying nor healthy in the long run.

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