Our superannuation system

I compiled a list of thoughts about our own superannuation system in response to a journalist from elsewhere thinking about pensions in their own country and asking me for a rundown on Australia’s system.

Via various accords with their union and business partners, the Hawke/Keating Government brought all regular employees within the super net, requiring compulsory contributions of 10% of payroll — up from 9.5% on 1 July this year. It will rise by 0.5% to a target of 12% over the next four years.

  • defined benefit schemes became of less and less importance and the whole compulsory system is built around defined contribution — I think the Commonwealth Government has also been winding down its defined contribution scheme towards something that looks more like a defined contribution scheme, though I expect it contains hybrid elements.
  • While some tax and regulatory incentives encourage people to take annuities, this is nevertheless funded from defined contributions. Beyond that, I don’t think it delivers any ‘defined benefit’ attributes of the old schemes.

Here are some things I think there are to like about the scheme:

  • It’s provided a good way of getting savings heavily into equities. A lot of our funds spend a lot of their time about 75% long on equities, including substantial investment in foreign equities which is good from a risk perspective.
  • It provides a way for a substantial amount of self-provision and self-management of investment — which is fine if it’s kept reasonably ‘vanilla’ flavoured — of which more below
  • It provides a mechanism for cranking up national savings — which Australia was very worried about in the 1980s — and it has broad political support — not something that a lot of savings initiatives have!
  • I argued here that the size of our indigenous savings pool plays some role in Australia’s substantial out-performance of New Zealand since the 1980s but the evidence for this isn’t overwhelming.

Things not to like:

  • There’s a complicated set of tax concessions that seem to me to be unnecessary and inequitable when one is running a compulsory scheme. Compulsion is the ultimate incentive!  In any event, most taxes on the scheme are flat at 15% or zero during the drawdown phase — which of course creates a regressive carve out of the otherwise progressive income tax scheme for a vast pool of savings (currently over $2 trillion and growing quite fast still). I’m told by a super expert that the largest family super fund has more than $500 million in it — all taxed concessionally for a single family! The Turnbull Government increased taxation on the wealthiest superannuants.
  • Costs of funds management in the system are several times what they should be, though they’ve been coming down owing to policy change
  • The regulatory regime of the family super schemes is both ridiculously complex and cruelly dysfunctional.
  • The switch has been thrown too far towards defined contribution leaving little risk pooling in the system. I think we should think of taking a leaf out of Shiller’s book and creating some government instruments designed to allow defined contribution schemes to insure against a range of risks that the market either doesn’t provide or provides inefficiently. These include
    • Intergenerational risk — a product of the kind I sketched in this column.
    • Longevity risk
    • End of life health risk.
  • These latter two risks can be insured against now but the private market will struggle to provide them efficiently. Mind you one can imagine ways in which markets could be helpful in encouraging healthy behaviour, though private insurance markets have a pretty poor record in doing so.
  • Particularly because the super lobby is now so politically powerful, it has even been able to head off proposals for people to access some of their savings for a deposit on a home. It is obviously sensible to allow people to invest their savings in a home since returns on property can be expected to be relatively high, it diversifies the savings portfolio from equities and there are various additional benefits from home ownership over renting as well as external benefits to neighbourhoods.

One of the reasons I’ve always been in favour of removing all tax concessions in a compulsory system is that these concessions only make sense if they’re

  • Well-crafted
  • Stable over time
  • Simple.

As I feared at the time and as has been born out in Australia, none of these conditions hold. Tax concessions tend to get changed quite often by governments, which face poor incentives to get it right beyond the optics of the existing parliamentary term. And even if they do get it right, there’s usually a lot of grandfathering for good and bad reasons as you go. In no time no normal person can make decisions in such a system — you need a professional to steer you through it all.

I’d also be happy to revise my view if I were shown contrary evidence, but I’m basically against savings incentives generally. Come prudential compulsion may make sense — but I’m pretty suspicious of special incentives to save for these reasons:

  1. They’re regressive, going preponderantly to the wealthy;
  2. I doubt the elasticities are high so they’ll come with a lot of deadweight loss; and
  3. Short of a progressive consumption tax which I don’t think has been properly implemented anywhere, one can expect a substantially higher deadweight loss because special savings vehicles attract savings to a substantial extent by diverting them from elsewhere — I’m pretty confident all of that $500 million sitting in a self Managed Super Fund would have been saved without the incentives. I doubt it’s been scrimped and saved in response to the incentives.

Given all these complexities, I also think what I call ‘extended competitive neutrality’ can be very useful. Governments run super schemes for their employees, and given that they do that, there’s no reason not to open them up to anyone who wants one. This is a very simple hack, but that somewhat undersells its attractions. Again and again, policymakers — here and I think elsewhere — think the answer to market failure is to try to make the area of policy look more like a functioning market. So they leave people ‘free to choose’ and then regulate for better information flow.

The problem with that is not just that regulating for good information flow is much easier said than done (and in many ways, we don’t really try — paying vanishingly little attention to the main vector by which people inform themselves in complex markets which is not by doing ‘due diligence’ themselves but by seeking out a competent professional advisor — if we took that problem seriously regulation would look quite different). But even more fundamentally, there are always large shares of the population (rarely less than 40% but often up to 80% or more) who just don’t feel competent to manage an investment portfolio. While I think those who are comfortable should be able to have that choice, it seems to me not just highly inefficient but actually cruel to hand such people over to a market they neither understand nor want to understand.

We could deal with a great deal of the trouble experienced by ordinary folk by ensuring that, wherever it’s easy we should give ordinary people a ‘public option’ of a properly run, appropriately priced version of any expert service they need. We do it in health and education. Nor does this have to be by public provision. It can be by publicly supervised tendering of services.

 

This entry was posted in Economics and public policy. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Our superannuation system

  1. paul frijters says:

    I am all for a public option. It has worked well in Denmark and the Netherlands.

    I was intrigued by your claim that costs of fund management has come down. I know that many costs are increasingly well hidden via a myriad of accounting tricks, but I did not know that a reasonable assessment by people competent enough to see beyond the many tricks nevertheless came to the conclusion that overhead costs truly are coming down. Are you sure?

    • Can’t see how a system that is compulsory but instead of a sole national fund has multiple funds would not be by nature much more expensive.

    • Nicholas Gruen says:

      I’m confident of my sources — which are human, not documentary — namely my friend Jim Minifie who was instrumental at Grattan for shining the light on this. He says that the government is broadly following the strategy set out by Grattan (I’m sure far from perfectly) and that margins are coming down.

  2. derrida derider says:

    Apart from the bit about savings, which for several reasons I think very dubious, I’d broadly agree with most of this. For example,we used to worry about national savings in the 80s – but we worried about the current account even more. And both worries stemmed from the same simplistic economic analysis. And the increased investment in equities I’d credit much more to dividend franking than to superannuation (apart from questio0ning what is so specially socially desirable about it anyway).

    I think the cons you list are large but largely hidden – and therefore greatly underweighted in the Australian policy debates. The lack of risk pooling inherent in a private DC approach is especially dangerous. I’ve long believed the only reason the world moved from public DB to private DC is in fact to shift risk to individual employees from powerful parties much better placed to bear them.

    I’d also add another, related, con – the whole thing was predicated on real risk-adjusted interest rates (ie the rate of proft) staying high due to a global capital shortage; I vividly remember being told to calculate what an average payout would be assuming 8% real returns over 50 years. But it was already obvious that the combination of economic convergence (ie some large poor countries getting rich) and global population aging meant the future was a capital glut (ie low rate of profit, low real interest rates). In such a world the advantages of a compulsory PAYG DB scheme become overwhelming. And it is not as though some people were not pointing this out at the time (no, not just me either).

  3. ianl says:

    ng is truly, drearily predictable.

    As soon as one sees the heading of an article by him on super, one knows he will find the low flat tax aspect most unbearably ghastly unfair. Read no further.

    Lock up 10%-12% of one’s income incrementally for 40 years or so with no access to this yourself (and trust over that 40+ years no government will find it irresistible) and then tax it at one’s marginal rate. Oh, and tax it again on exit.

    Then, what’s the point of it, Nick ? Even Keating understood that.

  4. Antonios Sarhanis says:

    I am uncomfortable with the enforced private savings. Seems strange to me.

    Australia has a Future Fund already. Why doesn’t the government just put aside money from the tax take to fund pensions in the future?

    Pensions seem like health systems to me: it’s a nation-wide insurance program to manage people being short of money at inopportune times. Adding an enforced private element to fund one’s own personal exposure just seems unnecessary and counterproductive. I have no problem with people voluntarily adding their own level of insurance, just seems odd to make it enforced.

  5. Nicholas Gruen says:

    The classic argument in economic theory is that, given that there is a socially funded safety net, people have inadequate incentives to save themselves.

    That doesn’t mean it’s right, but taxes are coercive, only more so. So you could take your argument and use it to support the same level of compulsory withholding, but then take the money and invest it in the future fund. That leaves you with quantitatively LESS not more freedom.

    • Antonios Sarhanis says:

      I don’t think that’s quite true.

      I’m suggesting that it’d be better to reserve some of the tax take to fund the same pension for everyone. Presumably that’ll mean tax rates would need to increase by some amount, let’s say 5%, and the remaining 5% that would otherwise have gone to private and enforced compulsory super is yours to do with what you wish.

      Wouldn’t that situation increase your net freedom? You’ve got an extra 5% to use freely immediately.

      Seems more equitable as well. Even if there weren’t the many egregious tax breaks that you rightly criticise, 10% compulsory super for a 20 year old without much money in the bank is much harsher than 10% compulsory super for a wealthy 60 year old.

      • derrida derider says:

        Yep. Now what you are suggesting here is a compulsory PAYG DB scheme which, as I suggest above, rates better against ALL THREE of the classical grounds for assessing policy inteventions – equity, economic efficiency and simplicity.

        But – GASP – it leaves no room for “the market” to operate, and it goes onto the government’s, rather than private citizens’, balance sheet. So we obviously cannot have that “because freedom”.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. You can also subscribe without commenting.