[micro-trigger alert: dark humour ahead]
The top prize for economic winners in the covid hysteria goes to the pharmaceutical companies who were quickest to jump on the covid-vaccine business. They are already selling billions of unproven vaccines that will now clearly arrive too late to have noticeable benefits anyway.
Second prize goes to the covid-testing and protective-wear industry. Its been an amazing ride for them. Hundreds of millions of tests done by now, costing billions, feeding the hysteria that leads to ….. more testing. Such a self-enforcing drug habit is every coke-baron’s wet dream. Ka-ching! Continue reading
In the Age of COVID chess has been reinvented. In March (I think it was) the Candidates Tournament was dramatically ended a few rounds in and everyone wondered “what next”. Enter Magnus Carlsen entrepreneur. With his star power, he has been getting himself a piece of the action. He owns something like 11 percent of Chess 24 a website which provides information and live televised commentary on chess as it happens. It does so on a freemium model. It’s free unless you want to get some extra features one of which is having a chance to play Magnus and others among the Great and the Good of chess when they play ‘banter blitz’ which is fun if you like that kind of thing. They comment on the destruction as they beat patzers and damn good people – and occasionally get beaten spectacularly as here.
Then Magnus came up with the Magnus Carlsen Chess Tour which is a series of online tournaments among the best ten or so players in the world and some veterans for interest sake. The format is best of four ‘rapid’ games – in which each player gets 15 minutes plus 10 seconds per move. If that doesn’t produce a result there are two blitz games of 5 minutes and (I think) 3 seconds a move. And if that doesn’t work there’s a game of armageddon in which white gets five minutes and must win to win the exchange and black four and wins if they draw or win.
In any event, it’s been great fun for chess tragics. Magnus has been in each of these tourneys and they’ve been very exciting, rapid chess rewarding more aggressive games – though. The final has turned out to be between Magnus and American Hiruku Nakamura who’s in and out of the top ten in classical chess but is arguably better than Magnus at blitz and perhaps at rapid.
He’s been playing incredibly well getting Magnus into lines he’s uncomfortable in, getting ahead of him on time and putting huge pressure on. The score is 3-2 in a best of seven match, so the tourney will be settled with a Nakamura win tonight – or will go to a final ‘set’ if Magnus wins tonight.
Some of the games have been stunning such as this one in which Magnus gets Hikaru into serious trouble, and Hikaru finds a way to force Magnus to sacrifice a rook and then his queen to keep his chances alive – without doing so Hiruku’s mating threats start dominating. Amazing he could conjure such threats so quickly out of such a bad position. Anyway if you want to play any of this together with computer analysis of the positions, this link will do it for you. And here’s the game I spoke about.
Next game starts in 29 minutes!
Oops – pressed ‘save’ rather than ‘publish’. Here it is after the first game of the evening. Another rip snorter.
Below is a piece I published on the NESTA website in early 2016 which they took down in a web revamp. It’s still available on archive.org, but I thought I’d also publish it here for the record.
Quick Troppo Quiz: Are there as many strategic diagrams on the web as there are molecules in the universe?
There’s a fascinating world of difference between social change seeking a generation ago compared with today. Then, political projects – around equal rights for women, employees and minorities, and greater respect for our environment – were largely about public policy and wider cultural norms. Accompanying this, ‘theory’, political campaigning and raising awareness were at the heart of activism.
Today’s change-seeking is different. The ultimate concerns are similar. Most change-seeking shares left-of-centre values, but today a lot of the focus is directly on the doing of good. Typical forms of the new activism include social entrepreneurialism, personal commitment to such things as ‘ethical’ consumption and investment, and its corporate analogue – corporate social responsibility and/or ‘shared value’, transparency (of governments and corporations), hacktivism and open data.
There’s a lot to like about this new world where the prizes go, not to those with the loudest, angriest voices, but to those who’ve done the most. Instead of asking kids what their take on Marx is (and following that whether they’re Stalinists, Leninists, Trots or Maoists), and how many times they’ve been arrested, we ask: if you believe in these causes, what have you achieved for them? Continue reading
A stupid diagram which I have made small for obvious reasons.
The Mandarin asked me to provide a summary answer to this question:
What is the appropriate level of the use of consultants in the public service? Has it gone too far? Are consultants doing too much core/routine work or are they providing a vital service?
It’s a fair enough question, but rather too decontextualised for me to make much sense of it really – but I didn’t think the Mandarin wanted my musings on that, so I offered them what’s below the fold. My main point is really on contracting out in the first two paragraphs rather than consulting per se. Continue reading
I’ve been dipping into Herbert Simon’s autobiography, Models of my life. He’s from an interesting time in the intellectual history of economics and the social sciences. The major contributions of his professional life began in the 1950s and, though he was part of the mainstream, he was highly critical of that mainstream. Being in search himself of the means for scientifically formalising economic subject matter himself, I think he was far more reflective in its pursuit than many of the neoclassicals whose approach was very formulaic.
He is pretty scathing about neoclassical economics, but from an unusual angle. He’s a very rigorous thinker. You won’t find me using the word ‘rigorous’ often because of its ambiguity. Most people use the word to mean ‘with lots of maths’, whereas I use the word to mean “being careful in proceeding from the premise to the conclusion of an argument”. In Simon’s case it’s both, which distinguishes him from a lot of his neoclassical colleagues.
In any event, the major preoccupation of his professional life was decision making. That led him into economics, the psychology of decision making (and precisely in how one might build a ‘science’ of such a thing), and he then ventured into computing and artificial intelligence in the mid-1950s. This immensely enriched his thought. I’m realising how much he anticipates embodied cognition as it emerged in the late 1970s and has matured into its own field since a landmark paper by Clark and Chalmers in 1998. I’m writing a little more about that which I hope will appear here soon.
In any event, Simon’s best-known contribution to economists is his idea of ‘bounded rationality’ – of the necessity to make decisions with less knowledge and understanding than one would like. The book contains Simon’s only short story which I reproduce below. It riffs on one of Simon’s obsessions which was the labyrinth as metaphor for decision making in life. It won’t surprise anyone to know that he was most intrigued by Jorge Luis Borges writing on the same theme and the book also contains a transcript of their discussing their shared interest in the labyrinth as metaphor. Anyway, below the fold is a transcription of Simon’s short story. It’s quite intriguing. Continue reading