Unpublished letter to the Editor, Politics of envy edition

Your editorial (Politics of envy threatens our economy and ethos, 2 May) claims that “Research by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling has shown that all income levels prospered in the Howard years and that under the Rudd-Gillard governments the gap between rich and poor has widened.”  This is close to the exact opposite of the facts. While it is true that all income groups benefited from real income increases in the Howard years, the gains for high income groups were much greater than for low income groups, and the gap between rich and poor widened.  In contrast, ABS statistics show that income inequality fell slightly under the Rudd-Gillard government, partly due to the impact of the GFC, but also because the very large increase in pensions in 2009 helped some of the poorest by the most. I have not been able to find any NATSEM document that actually says what the editorial claims.

Peter Whiteford, University of New South Wales

One of the challenges facing Greece

In 2007 Greece spent 9.9% of GDP on age pensions.  This was the fourth highest level of spending on pensions in the OECD (after Austria, Spain and Italy).  Australia spent 3.2% of GDP, the fifth lowest level of spending in the OECD (ahead of Iceland, Ireland, Korea and Mexico).   Greece also spends 2% of GDP on benefits for survivors, mainly widows, a level about 10 times as high as in Australia. The combined rate of employer and employee social security contributions is around 38% of the total wage bill.

But as we should all know by now the distribution of spending is important – as is the level of spending. And the distribution of spending is very different in Greece and Australia.

In Greece, pensions are provided through an earnings-related public scheme with two components plus a series of minimum pensions/social safety nets.  (The safety nets are very low – in 2008 if total net income from all sources was  less than EUR 7 750 you could get a benefit of around 230 EUR a month).

Effectively if your lifetime average earnings are less than 50% of the average wage, you get almost nothing from the public pension system.  If your incomes were above this level your gross replacement rate is about 97% of your earnings  – irrespective of your earnings.  Taking account of taxes makes the system marginally more progressive – net (after-tax) replacement rates range from 114% at half average earnings to around 104% at twice average earnings.

Yes, in Greece when you retire you can be better-off than when you are in work.  But of course most people don’t have full contribution histories. Moreover, the effective age of retirement in Greece exceeds that of Germany by about 27 months. Having said this, Greeks retire earlier than Germans after correcting for occupational distributions.

How is spending distributed?

The figure below shows spending on cash benefits to households with a head aged 65 years or over around 2005, comparing Australia and Greece.  Spending for each decile is calculated as a percentage of overall average household income in each country, so this is a measure of relative generosity.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

While Greece spends about three to four times as much on pensions as Australia relative to GDP, the bottom 30% of the Greek population receive lower relative pensions than the corresponding group in Australia.  In Australia the middle income older people get the highest public pensions – this reflects the fact that some of the people in the lower income groups are probably not as poor as they appear to be – because they have higher levels of assets which exclude them from receiving pensions.  In addition, even though the figures adjust for household size, the households in the middle are more likely to be couples rather than single people. However pensions paid to higher income groups are much more generous in Greece.

The second figure shows the same sort of comparisons for the overall transfer system.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here the comparison is more stark, because Australia spends a higher share of its total transfers on benefits to working age households, and these are more progressively distributed.  So in Australia a household in the second decile gets about 1.8 times the transfers paid in Greece.  In contrast in Greece households in the richest decile receive about 20 times as much as in Australia.  (Although this is relative to average household incomes, which are a lot higher in Australia than Greece.)

Despite spending a lot on age pensions, poverty in Greece amongst the aged is high – and this was before the crisis.

In July 2010 the Greek Parliament passed sweeping changes  to the pension system. The main changes included setting a basic state pension of 360 Euros per month for all regardless of contributions; reducing the replacement ratio to 64% for contributions-related primary pensions based on earnings over the entire working life (rather than the best five of the last 10 years), topped up as before by supplementary pensions; consolidating all types of pension funds into three: for employees, the self-employed and farmers; raising the retirement age to 65 for both men and women, with gradual transition over three to seven years for women and those in special job categories; raising the minimum early retirement age to 60, including for workers with 40 years of contributions and those in heavy and arduous professions, starting in 2011; reducing the maximum allowable pension; and severely reducing the list of jobs deemed heavy or unhealthy, and which thereby qualify for early retirement (starting in 2011).

On the surface, the introduction of a higher basic state pension and the reduction in the maximum allowable pension are likely to have a progressive impact.  The further pension cuts just announced mean that a person getting a monthly pension of 1,500 euros will face a reduction of 12 percent on the amount above 1,300 euros.

The effects of these changes may be more complex  to interpret, however.  Greece has a much higher share of multi-generation households than many other countries.  For example, nearly 46% of men aged 30 to 34 years in Greece live with their parents – compared to 6% in the Netherlands.  (Anyone who can find the comparable figures for Australia will get brownie points.) So pensioners living with adult children may be counted as living in relatively well-off households.-, but in some cases pensions will be cut for those who are also supporting newly unemployed younger people.

To end on a sombre note, the pension challenges facing Greece are by no means the most severe in Southern Europe, as can be shown by considering the how the distribution of all transfers compares across Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.

Inequality in Australia – are the rich getting richer and the poor poorer?

Cross posted from Inside Story

Australians like to think of themselves as egalitarian, and in the past Australians also liked to believe that we had a relatively equal distribution of income and wealth.  As early as the 1880s, visitors to Australia apparently remarked on the greater equality of the distribution of wealth, with the lack of a poor class, comfortable incomes being in the majority, and millionaires few and far between.

As late as 1967, Harold Holt said he did not know of any free country in the world where “what is produced by the community is more fairly and evenly distributed among the community than Australia”.  From the 1980s onwards, however, this view of Australia became subject to reappraisal.  As noted by John Hirst  “‘Egalitarianism – see under myths’: so runs the index entry in a standard sociological text on Australian society…” Continue reading

The clean energy plan: compensation or redistribution?

A major component of the government’s clean energy plan is a package of assistance measures to compensate households for higher prices. The government will provide assistance through increases in pensions, allowances and family payments, as well as through income tax cuts. From a political and social perspective, the adequacy and credibility of this compensation will be of crucial importance.

Continue reading

How fair is Australia’s welfare state?

Cross posted from  Australian Policy Online http://inside.org.au/how-fair-is-australia%e2%80%99s-welfare-state/

IN ITS 28 May edition the Economist carried a long feature about Australia, praising our resilient economy, criticising the quality of our political discourse, and highlighting our social egalitarianism. “The Evolving Platypus: A Distinct Society, Perhaps Becoming Less So,” was the magazine’s summary of how we do things here.

The feature referred to an article in Policy, the journal of the Centre for Independent Studies, by David Alexander, a former senior adviser to Peter Costello. Under the title “Free and Fair: How Australia’s Low-Tax Egalitarianism Confounds the World,” Alexander argues that Australia offers a genuine alternative to both the low-spending but high-inequality United States and the high-taxing but egalitarian countries of Northern Europe. This “unique form of low-taxing egalitarianism,” he concludes, “is both more successful and more sustainable than other models.”

Is this characterisation of Australia’s social protection system accurate? Alexander presents a wide range of evidence to support these arguments, and it is not surprising that I agree with much of it, since one of his sources is a paper I wrote for a conference during the Henry Review of Australia’s tax system.

The most recent data on social spending in OECD countries shows that in 2007, the year before the global financial crisis, Australia spent 16 per cent of GDP on cash benefits (including pensions and unemployment payments, healthcare and community services) compared to an OECD average of just over 19 per cent. We actually spent a little less than the United States and Japan, and the only countries that spent substantially less than we did were lower-income countries like Mexico, Chile, Turkey and Korea.

In most rich countries, the welfare state is the largest single component of public spending and therefore the main determinant of how much tax income needs to be collected. About half of all the taxes collected in Australia are directed to social spending, but because we spend less than average we also have lower taxes than average. With taxes at about 27 per cent of GDP in 2008 compared to an OECD average of close to 35 per cent, Australia is the sixth lowest-taxing country in the OECD.

So it’s fair to say that we are a relatively low-taxing country compared to other rich nations, and to a significant extent this is because we have lower levels of welfare spending. But is this spending particularly egalitarian and are our taxes progressive?

To answer these questions, we need to look at how social spending and taxation is distributed across income groups. And to do that, the most up-to-date comparisons, using 2005 data, are in a 2008 OECD study, Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries. (Although the data is six years old, the ways in which benefits and taxes are distributed tends not to change significantly over short periods of time, as was confirmed by an analysis prepared for the OECD Ministerial Meeting on Social Policy in May this year.)

It’s important to remember that the Australian social security system differs markedly from those in other OECD countries. In Europe, the United States and Japan, social security is financed by contributions from employers and employees, with benefits related to past earnings; this means that higher-income workers receive more generous benefits if they become unemployed or disabled or when they retire. By contrast, Australia’s flat-rate payments are financed from general taxation revenue, and there are no separate social security contributions; benefits are also income-tested or asset-tested, so payments reduce as other resources increase. The rationale for this approach is that it reduces poverty more efficiently by concentrating the available resources on the poor (“helping those most in need”) and minimises adverse incentives by limiting the overall level of spending and taxes.

Economist Nicholas Barr from the London School of Economics has pointed out that the main objective of social security systems in most countries is to provide insurance against risks like unemployment, disability and sickness, and to redistribute income across the life cycle, either to periods when individuals have greater needs (for example, when there are children in the household) or to periods when they would otherwise have lower incomes (such as in retirement). Barr describes this as the “piggy-bank objective.”

A second objective of the welfare state can be described as “taking from the rich to give to the poor” – or what Barr calls the “Robin Hood” motive – and Australia is the strongest example of a country emphasising this approach. Our system relies more heavily on income-testing and directs a higher share of benefits to lower-income groups than any other country in the OECD (and probably in the world). The poorest 20 per cent of the population receives nearly 42 per cent of all the money spent on social security; the richest 20 per cent receives only around 3 per cent. As a result, the poorest fifth receives twelve times as much in social benefits as the richest fifth, while in the United States the poorest get about one and a half times as much as the richest. At the furthest extreme are countries like Greece, where the rich are paid twice as much in benefits as the poorest 20 per cent, and Mexico and Turkey, where the rich receive five to ten times as much as the poor.

Because of these design features, Australia has the most “target efficient” system of social security benefits of any OECD country. For each dollar of spending on benefits our system reduces income inequality by about 50 per cent more than the United States, Denmark or Norway, twice as much as Korea, two and a half times as much as Japan or Italy, and three times as much as France.

Other countries that are similar to Australia in this regard include New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Ireland, and also Denmark and Finland. In fact, nearly all of the high-spending Scandinavian welfare states target to the poor more than does the United States.

Australia also has one of the most progressive systems of income taxes of any OECD country and, like our social benefit system, our income taxes are the most “efficient” at reducing inequality of any rich country. It is important to note that the progressivity of taxes in Australia is not a result of high taxes on the rich; rather, it’s due to the fact that lower-income groups in Australia pay much lower taxes than similar income groups in other countries (with the exception of the United States and Ireland).

The extent to which the Australian welfare state redistributes to the poor is determined by the interactions between the tax and social security systems, both in terms of the size of taxes collected and benefits paid and the distribution of these taxes and benefits. The chart shows an estimate of “net redistribution” to the poorest 20 per cent of the population in 2005. This is calculated by estimating the level of spending on social security benefits as a percentage of household disposable income and then taking account of how much of this goes to the poorest fifth. The same procedure is used to calculate how much tax is paid by people in that group, which is then subtracted from the benefits received to give “net redistribution to the poor.”

The chart shows that there are large differences in how countries redistribute income to low-income households, ranging from more than 5 per cent of household disposable income in Australia, Belgium, Denmark and Sweden, to around 2 per cent in Japan, Poland and the United States and less than 0.5 per cent in Switzerland and Korea. Nordic countries transfer large amounts of gross benefits to low-income people but also levy a significant amount in taxes from them; conversely, most English-speaking countries pay less generous benefits to the lowest-income households but partly offset this by levying lower taxes on them.

As a result, even though Australia spends below the OECD average on social security benefits, the distribution of benefits is so progressive, and the level of taxes paid by the poor is so low, that Australia redistributes more to the poorest 20 per cent of the population than any other OECD country except Denmark (which spends about 80 per cent more than Australia).

These figures suggest that in important respects the debate over Australia’s welfare state is misconceived. Following the federal budget earlier this year, for example, the issue of “middle-class welfare” attracted considerable media attention. But the OECD data shows that Australia actually has the lowest level of middle-class welfare of any OECD country, a position it has consistently held for at least the past thirty years. Organisations such as the Centre for Independent Studies have also argued that the Australian welfare state is marked by a high level of inefficient and wasteful “churning,” meaning that many people who use welfare state benefits and services finance most or all of what they receive through the taxes they pay themselves. But the OECD data shows that Australia has the lowest level of churning of any OECD country except Korea – and Korea only has lower churning because it has very little at all in the way of welfare payments. Claims by the Institute of Public Affairs that the main beneficiaries of the welfare state are the middle-class bureaucrats who administer the system are equally misleading.

While our social security system has a lot of strengths, this certainly does not mean that there are not real shortcomings to deal with, including the inadequacy of unemployment benefits and rental assistance. The fact that poor Australians get higher benefits than many poor people in European countries or the United States doesn’t actually help them pay their bills. It is always possible to be more efficient, and every year governments go through the laborious process of incrementally adjusting our benefit system to try to produce better outcomes. These changes often look like tedious fine-tuning, but the evidence suggests that it is changes of this sort that produce real improvements, rather than grandiose plans for completely replacing our welfare arrangements. •

Could we abolish poverty if we didn’t spend so much on public servants?

In the Sydney Morning Herald of 1 June, Julie Novak of the Institute of Public Affairs criticised an article by Gavin Mooney and Alex Wodak, writing in the previous day’s Herald, which argued for higher taxes , in part based on arguments developed by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett in The Spirit Level arguing that Wilkinson and Pickett’s analysis should be taken with a grain of salt.

Now being an international comparisons pedant, I also have a lot of problems with aspects of the Spirit Level (mainly related to the fact that Japan is assumed to be a low inequality country and shouldn’t be).

But we’ll put that to one side, because along the way she raises an argument that is even less well founded than anything in “The Spirit Level”.

In particular, she asserts that “the primary beneficiaries of big welfare are the middle-class bureaucrats who administer the welfare state in fine detail. To get a sense of how much welfare-state funding is being misdirected, consider this: based on an upper estimate of 13 per cent of Australians living in poverty, the Commonwealth’s social security and welfare budget of $117 billion could have been evenly shared among the poverty stricken with a $40,817 payment.”
But let us stop for a minute to have a reality check. A payment of more than $40,000 per person means that we could pay a family of four more than $160,000 per year out of the current welfare budget; but only a small minority of families make this much in earnings. Is this possible? Well the answer must be “Sadly, No”.

Now if you divide $117 billion among 13% of the Australian population, it is arithmetically correct that you come up with about $40,000. This calculation is simple, straightforward and completely misleading.

People I have a lot of respect for criticise the estimates that the poverty rate in Australia is 13%, but let’s accept for the moment that Australia’s welfare system is not sufficiently generous to raise everyone out of poverty, and leaves 13% of the population below the poverty line.

But the point overlooked in this calculation is that in the absence of our welfare system a lot more people would be poor. So, the relevant figure is not how many people are in poverty after receiving social security benefits, but how many people are poor before they receive benefits.

OECD figures for around 2005 estimate that 12.4% of Australians were poor after taking account of taxes paid and benefits received, a figure a little lower than Julie Novak’s estimate. But 28.6% of the population would have been poor in the absence of welfare benefits. So if we divided all of the current welfare spending of $117 billion dollars equally among all pre-transfer poor people rather than giving them a payment of more than $40,800, we would only be able to give them a payment of $17,700.

If we completely abolished Centrelink and were somehow able to pay people benefits without actually having anyone to administer the system, then we would have about $3 billion to add in, which would give all poor people an extra $450 a year.

The combined amount is actually less than the current single rate of age and disability pension of around $19,000 (including supplements) – although it would be a big improvement on the rate of payments for the unemployed of around $12,400.

Of course to use up all of the welfare budget in this way would mean that we would no longer be paying for child care support, nursing homes, services for people with disability or support for the homeless.
Julie Novak also argues that “An insidious effect of progressive income taxation is to substitute leisure for work and, combined with a large welfare state, to impose high effective marginal tax rates that punish individuals financially for supplying more labour.”

It is not entirely clear what withdrawal rate she has in mind, but if you only wanted to give welfare payments to the poor, then you would probably be talking about a 100% withdrawal rate, which would make our current effective marginal tax rates look pretty low.

For richer or poorer: the delicate art of messing with middle class welfare

Originally posted at The Conversation by Gerry Redmond and Peter Whiteford

(Disclosure:  Gerry Redmond and Peter whiteford receive funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on “Supporting Families: Horizontal and Vertical Equity in the Australian Tax and Transfer Systems”.)

One of the most hotly debated features of the 2011 Budget was the freezing of thresholds for some family payments. This has been described positively as a “war on middle class welfare” and negatively as punishing aspirational families.

The Treasurer argued that while the families affected are not wealthy, the government wanted to target families on “modest incomes”, and pausing indexation would make payments more sustainable.

The Opposition Leader signaled he may oppose these cuts, saying they are a form of “class war” that hammers everyday households.

In the Sydney Morning Herald, Gerard Henderson argued that family payments are not “welfare”, but are equivalent to tax relief supporting families in the important role of raising children.

Ross Gittins pointed out the next day that there are more important issues at stake than the immediate impact on families, since this debate goes to the heart of what sort of welfare system Australians want to have.

Taking it out of the tax system

The government has pointed out that Australia spends much more than the OECD average on cash payments for families with children, and is the third highest spender among rich countries.

Australia is a low spender, however, on child care and maternity and parental leave, despite the Baby Bonus and the new parental leave scheme.

Some countries also support families through tax allowances, and even though our payments are called Family Tax Benefits, nearly all spending in Australia is provided through benefits made by Centrelink.

One of the most striking features of changes since the 1970s is that governments moved assistance for families out of the tax system, first abolishing rebates for dependent children in the 1970s and then moving rebates for “dependent spouses” and sole parents into the benefit system in the 1990s.

This was done to target assistance to lower income families who could not benefit equally from tax relief. It also directed assistance to carers with responsibility for children, usually the mothers.

The Howard government partly reversed this, but only a small minority ever took the option of receiving help through the tax system. Because family payments are made by Centrelink they are labelled as “welfare”.

Family assistance

An important feature of our system is how much we target assistance to lower income families.

Families not in paid work  and receiving payments as lone parents or unemployed couples always received higher assistance per child than better-off families.

The Fraser government first introduced income-tested benefits for low-income working families, although the scheme actually didn’t come into effect until after the 1983 election.

These payments were greatly increased by the Hawke government as part of their initiatives to reduce child poverty – which they nearly halved in three years. Just before their child poverty package in 1987, the Labor government also income-tested the previously universal benefit for children, family allowances.

Family payments were increased by the Howard government to compensate for the introduction of the GST, and were extended further up the income scale in 2003 and 2004 to complement income tax cuts and to reduce effective marginal tax rates on working families.

Since 2007, the Rudd and Gillard governments have scaled these payments back, but not significantly. As Ross Gittins pointed out, the families most affected by recent changes may well be “middle class” but they can hardly be described as middle-income – less than 3% of Australian families have a single earner making $150,000 a year or more. This is not so much middle class welfare, as upper income welfare.

How much has “middle class welfare” grown?

These trends should be put in perspective. The much criticized expansion of “middle class welfare” under the Howard Government increased the average real welfare payments for the richest 20% of working age Australians by around $1.60 per week.

Over the same period, the real earnings of this group went up by more than $500 per week. While their real taxes also went up, this was not in proportion to their income.

If the income taxes paid by the richest 20% of working age Australians were the same proportion of income as in 1996 then they would be paying $60 a week more than they currently do.  And this is a conservative estimate, because if the tax sxale had been indexed the extra earnings would be taxed at their marginal rate, and not their average rate.

So the expansion of middle class welfare on average gave the richest 20% less than $2 per week, but changes in tax scales gave them more than 30 times as much.

“High income welfare”

A puzzling aspect of this debate is the fact that Australia actually has the lowest middle or upper class welfare in the OECD. Nearly all other OECD countries either provide tax relief or universal payments for all children.

Only 2.2% of Australian welfare spending goes to the richest 20% of the working age population. This has increased from 1.6% since 1996, but even this higher level is but a small fraction of the extent of upper income welfare that is common in most other rich countries.

In the USA, for example, about 16% of their lower welfare spending goes to the richest 20% of the working age population.

While our current system is expensive, it has important strengths. For families in paid work we have one of the lowest rates of child poverty in the OECD: the family benefit system is an essential way in which we help “make work pay”.

Incentives to work

The main reason why family payments go to middle income and some higher income families is that we have generous base rates of payment for lower income families and we try to not withdraw them at too high a rate in order to avoid disincentives to work.

Correspondingly, if governments wanted to substantially cut “middle class welfare” they would need to either cut benefits for lower income families or increase effective tax rates on middle income families through a tighter income test (or both).

In restraining spending to reduce the deficit, it seems reasonable that the richest 20% of Australians who have enjoyed the largest real income increases should contribute, although this should include those without children as well as those with children.

At the same time, we should be conscious of the fundamental objectives of the system and make sure that we maintain the strengths of our approach.