Category Archives: Health

117 published posts in this category.

The Evaluator General redux

[caption id="attachment_36320" align="alignleft" width="1031"] Why does this graph capture the idea of the Evaluator General? All is revealed in this post .[/caption] Luke Slawomirski, a health economist I met at the OECD over a decade ago when I proposed Gruen Tenders among o...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Innovation

We have almost no affordable answers to mental ill-health (one might be below)

No-one really knows the most cost-effective treatments for mental ill-health. But among the most promising options right now: take the dog for a walk. Illustration: A cost-effective mental resource takes a break from promoting healthy exercise and lifting spirits ... Meet Otis...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Medical, Social Policy

Absent without leave

Troppo readers may be wondering why I haven’t been blogging lately, after making a comeback several months ago after a long absence. The reason is that my wife Jen is in hospital dying from ovarian cancer. It’s very distressing, both for me and our daughter Jessica (not to men...

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Posted in Life, Health, Medical

Vale David Tiley

David Tiley was one of the early generation of bloggers in Australia, starting in 2003, approximately the same time as I started. I first met him at a blogging meet-up in St Kilda (where David lived) in about 2005. Blogging was much more social in those days, and there were fr...

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Posted in History, Media, Health, Personal

Returning to blogging at Troppo

As longstanding readers will know, I was one of the founders of Troppo along with Nicholas Gruen and several others including Mark Bahnisch and Don Arthur. The latter two moved on to other things (Don was a research at the Federal Parliamentary Library last time I heard, a rol...

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Posted in Uncategorized, History, Health, Medical, Personal

The Fertility Rate: the Best Dam(n) Wellbeing Index Going Around?

Valiant attempts have been made to measure happiness and wellbeing. People much smarter than me have developed fancy indices, and people even smarter than that, such as our own Nicholas Gruen, has called bullshit on many of them . What I propose is something far simpler: make...

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Posted in Life, Philosophy, Society, Health, Ethics, Social Policy

The political economy of Medicare

I always say that political economy is the best (or least worst) lens through which to examine how health systems work. This goes for Medicare, which is far more than a service delivery model and has massive institutional and political import. The recently established 'Strengt...

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Posted in Uncategorized, Economics and public policy, Health, Medical, Democracy

Some thoughts on fixing the Australian health system

This is an edited version of an article that first appeared in Crikey on 3 June 2022. As I see it, the four most pressing challenges for the new Minister for health and ageing concern: 1. promoting health (not just treating disease); 2. addressing the disconnect between care s...

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Posted in Politics - national, Health

Practical steps towards Ivan Illich’s world

[caption id="attachment_35644" align="alignleft" width="1163"] For anyone who’s interested I recommend David Cayley’s series of CBC radio documentaries on Illich. (He’s the best broadcaster I’ve come across). The first series of five programs focuses on Illich’s social thought...

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Posted in Philosophy, History, Education, Economics and public policy, Health, Political theory, Innovation, Ethics, Cultural Critique, Democracy, Sortition and citizens’ juries

On Faust, Lord of the Rings, and lockdowns

A major theme in our book " the Great Covid Panic " (now also on Kindle !) is how a whole layer of politicians, medical advisers, and opportunistic business people grabbed the opportunity for more power and money during the lockdowns of 2020-2021. We detail how they did it and...

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Posted in Life, Philosophy, History, Health, Dance, Social, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

The Great Covid Panic: now out!

It's here, the booklet I am sure you have all been waiting for. The one which Gigi Foster and Michael Baker slaved over for 10 months . It is also on Kindle . It is dedicated to all the victims of the Panic, in poor countries and rich countries. They include our children, the...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Philosophy, Print media, History, Humour, Education, Literature, Society, Religion, Theatre, IT and Internet, Economics and public policy, Terror, Science, Journalism, Media, Libertarian Musings, Health, Political theory, Law, Dance, Review, Bargains, Travel, WOW! - Amazing, Social, Parenting, Ethics, Medical, Public and Private Goods, Death and taxes, Inequality, Social Policy, Democracy, Employment, Sortition and citizens’ juries, Isegoria, Coronavirus crisis

Two summary pieces of HART and SWPR on masks

Since I learned in April 2020 that transmission of covid was mainly via extremely small aerosols, I have regarded face masks as a placebo: they are to aerosols what garden gates are to mosquitoes. Yet, placebos have a role so I wasn't too against them and willing to have my as...

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Posted in IT and Internet, Science, Health, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

Do lockdowns work in Europe?

Let us divide the countries in Europe that have at least 1 million inhabitants into three groups: the ones that had high movement restrictions in 2020, the ones with almost no restrictions, and the ones in between. The graph below gives you the punchline that countries with mo...

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Posted in Science, regulation, Health, Dance, Social, Medical, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

Book Launch of the Handbook for Wellbeing Policy-Making July 1st

Wellbeing & Policy Making Book Launch Event on 1st July 5-6.30pm London Time. Attending the Launch is Free, the book is not! [blurb from Nancy Hey, director of the WW Centre for Wellbeing]: The What Works Centre for Wellbeing , and our commissioning partners at the ESRC: Econo...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Philosophy, History, Society, Theatre, Economics and public policy, Science, Health, Political theory, Social, Public and Private Goods, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Democracy

Scott Morrison's covid dilemma

Pre 2020, I considered Scott Morrison a political enemy of the policies I wanted for Australia, but since then have sympathised with every attempt he has made to get Australia out of its love-affair with covid-mania. Over the fold is my take on what I think Scott Morrison's vi...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Health, Dance, Death and taxes, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

Is the birthrate in Victoria dropping fast?

One of the things I keep track off in covid-times is what is happening to births. Though it was initially suggested couples might use their extra lockdown-time to produce babies, it has become clear that in the Western world the opposite is true and that they reduce births by...

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Posted in Society, Health, Social, Parenting, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

Peace, food prices, (hunger?) deaths and inequality

Now and then one should look up and see if there are any trends that are not usually talked about in the media but that say something big about how humanity is going. I here want to briefly discuss the latest data on four big trends: war, food, (hunger?) deaths, and inequality...

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Posted in Politics - international, Life, Society, Science, Health, Social, Death and taxes, Inequality

Lockdown cost-benefit analysis for Australia by Martin Lally

Martin Lally is a kiwi economist who late in 2020 decided to calculate for himself what his own country was losing by locking itself away from the world, coming to the conclusion that New Zealand was sacrificing something like 26 life-years in the future to 'save' 1 life-year....

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Posted in Politics - national, Economics and public policy, Science, Health, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

Common features of the Covistance

I am co-writing a book on the Great Panic to explain what happened and what can be done to avoid a repeat. In the course of our research for that book, me and co-authors are scouring websites in the rest of the world to find out how others in the Covistance have experienced th...

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Posted in History, Humour, Society, Terror, Health, Social, Cultural Critique, Coronavirus crisis

Australia or Sweden: which has had the better 2020?

Compared to the trends on January 2020, has Australia or Sweden lost more wellbeing in 2020? And which has seen the greater damage to expected future wellbeing years for after 2020? The Table below summarizes the answers to this. For the first calculation, let us only count th...

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Posted in Politics - international, Life, Science, Health, Ethics, Cultural Critique, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

On the nature of gods and inequality.

Sometimes one has an idea that blazes into one's consciousness as a solution to one particular concern, which then starts to be something much bigger than just a solution to a problem. It becomes an interesting thing in itself and starts appearing as relevant to many different...

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Posted in Religion, Geeky Musings, Health, Dance, Death and taxes, Inequality

Some favourite anti-lockdown art

I here want to salute the brave artists who used their talents to capture the inhumanity and essential insanity of lockdowns. My favourite is the "guerilla mask force", an artistic idea that apparently started in Switzerland but spread all over Europe. what this guerilla mask...

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Posted in Society, Art and Architecture, Health, Dance, Cultural Critique, Coronavirus crisis

A World Anti-Hysteria Organisation?

The essential governance problem in March 2020 in Western countries was the overwhelming demand of the vast majority of the population to do something dramatic in response to their fear. There was a clamour to be ‘led to safety’ by populations scared to death by images in the...

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Posted in Politics - international, Society, IT and Internet, Terror, Science, Health, Metablogging, Information, Innovation, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

What experiments on cult behaviour tell us about lockdown beliefs

With a recent publication in Nature that reported lockdowns have no effect on covid-cases or covid-deaths, there are now over 30 studies that fail to find any covid-reducing benefits of lockdowns. Worse, across countries and time, more severe lockdowns are just leading to more...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Society, Religion, Terror, Science, Health, Medical, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

Two more interesting articles on covid mass hysteria

Guess which crackpot started his article on covid in that notorious right-wing publication 'The Guardian' with the sentence "The virus has been used as a pretext in many countries to crush dissent, criminalise freedoms and silence reporting"? It's that obvious conspiracy-nutte...

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Posted in Politics - international, History, Science, Health, Political theory, Inequality, Social Policy, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

Interesting new articles on mass hysteria and medical morality

While the hysteria marches on here in Europe, an interesting economics article came out in a decent journal on the political economy of that mass hysteria. Their abstract: In this article, we aim to develop a political economy of mass hysteria. Using the background of COVID-19...

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Posted in History, Science, Health, Death and taxes, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

Covid-congestion effects: why are lockdowns so deadly?

Consider the picture below of two hypothetical Accident and Emergency departments (A&E), one that has no covid-regulations and simply has the available nurses trying to help all comers as fast as possible. In the other one the nurses try to prevent mingling by testing newcomer...

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Posted in Education, Society, Science, Health, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

Are the covid lights going on in the States?

An important rule in politics is that you adopt the best policies and slogans of your opponent only after you have destroyed that opponent. Till that moment you pretend he is the devil, but afterwards you re-label his best ideas and call them your own. A great Australian examp...

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Posted in Politics - international, Humour, Economics and public policy, Geeky Musings, Health, Social, Cultural Critique, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

Can you spot the countries with high vaccinations? Or recent lockdowns?

I am all for effective vaccines and have been impressed with how fast vaccines have been developed against covid, but I never expected them to be the wonder weapons some promised them to be. After all, the yearly new vaccines against the flu never eradicated the flu but reduce...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, History, Society, Health, Innovation, Medical, Coronavirus crisis

Histories of the Great Panic.

How will Western historians in 2050 remember 2020? In scenario 1, "The Great Panic, a lost generation", I sketch my best guess. Scenario 2, "A job well done" is the one I imagine many current Western governments hope is told. Scenario 3, "The dark path of the Great Panic", is...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Philosophy, History, Humour, Society, Libertarian Musings, Geeky Musings, Health, Dance, Innovation, Cultural Critique, Public and Private Goods, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

How culture war is destroying public reason: COVID edition

Cross-posted from The Mandarin (and written about ten days ago, so it fails to mention Adelaide's latest snafu). Lockdowns, border closures, masks, apps and eradication. Where do you stand? One can’t sensibly address any of these issues without knowing more about context. But...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

The vaccine and the COVID culture war

[caption id="attachment_34406" align="alignright" width="320"] Kind of a fun graphic[/caption] Well, we look like getting a vaccine! Of course managing the policy response to the virus could know of this only as a possibility. But, looking like it is coming to pass, that possi...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

How others are organising the Covistance: ideas for those who want to help.

How are we going to escape the authoritarian nightmare and regain our liberties and zest for life? This long read is written for organisers of new Covistance initiatives, explaining the logic of what others have done and what could further be done. So I am speaking to those of...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, IT and Internet, Science, Journalism, Media, Libertarian Musings, Geeky Musings, Health, Law, Information, Parenting, Death and taxes, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

The legal battles of the Covistance. Have there been crimes against humanity?

Ramesh Thakur is one of many commentators inside the Covistance who think government public health advisers have committed crimes against humanity . His anger was raised by reports of desperate parents in India selling their children into virtual slavery, including sexual expl...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Society, Economics and public policy, Science, Libertarian Musings, Health, Law, Social, Coronavirus crisis

Canadian doctor Joffe MD on the negative effects of covid-19 responses

Dr. Joffe just posted a new article on the many negative effects of lockdowns in Canada and in the world as a whole. He really has put in a fantastic effort to source the evidence on the negative effects of the covid-related policies, digging up and critically evaluating nearl...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Education, Society, Economics and public policy, Health, Medical, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

Is Sweden the promised land for sensible covid-policies? Reluctantly.

Sweden is a rich, spacious country famous for IKEA, ABBA, dark cold winters, and its unique covid-policies. We escaped London for a few days to see for ourselves what the deal was with this Scandinavian country of 10 million. It is as rich and well-run as the statistics say it...

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Posted in Politics - international, Science, Health, Dance, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Democracy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

The gathering Covistance, its promise and its main enemies

Those who already in March foretold the folly of lockdowns and social distancing did not dream we'd still be in the same place after 7 months. Only slowly has it dawned that the panic would become an enduring business model . For a long time, we believed sanity would soon prev...

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Posted in Politics - national, History, Humour, Science, Geeky Musings, Health, Dance, Cultural Critique, Death and taxes, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

Playacting government: Victoria's COVID response

[caption id="attachment_34335" align="alignright" width="378"] Dan Andrews said that his 'Road Map' for easing the lockdown is not a doctoral thesis – a proposition that's hard to argue with. Further propositions will be offered at subsequent press conferences.[/caption] Life...

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Posted in Politics - national, Economics and public policy, Health, Innovation, Ethics

The Great Barrington Declaration?

A group of senior medical scientists have gotten together to pen an open petition to governments and society, calling for a herd immunity approach to the coronavirus. Signatories already include over 3000 "Medical & Public Health Scientists", 4000 "Medical Practitioners", and...

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Posted in Life, History, Society, Science, Health, Cultural Critique, Medical, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

What do excess death graphs tell us?

Have a look at the graph below which summarises (excess) deaths per week in 24 European regions , roughly the EU, over the last few years. Note how the vertical axis only starts at 40,000 and that hence the fluctuations relative to baseline are smaller than they seem here. The...

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Posted in Science, Health, Coronavirus crisis

The descent into Darkness of the UK and Victoria. Quo Vadis?

[Bottom line: the conflicting forces now being created in the UK and Australia are truly frightening.] The UK government has just announced a nationwide return of one of the most destructive elements of lock downs: mandatory social isolation. Gatherings of more than 6 people a...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, History, Society, Science, Journalism, Libertarian Musings, Health, Law, bubble, Social, Cultural Critique, Inequality, Social Policy, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

Professor Foster's cost-benefit analysis for the Victorian parliament.

[below the exact text (with different font/highlight) as Gigi Foster's submission to the Victorian parliamentary library in mid-August here . To see her health-related notes, including on topics like non-linearities and Sweden, see here , and to see all documents of that inqui...

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Posted in Politics - national, Education, Economics and public policy, Science, Health, Ethics, Medical, Social Policy, Democracy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

Could lock-downs lead to a baby boom in several Western countries? If so, why?

For months now, demographers and other social scientists have been predicting a covid baby bust because marriages were postponed , pubs were closed, anxiety levels were up, measured fertility intentions were down, sexual activity went down (in some reports), and economic uncer...

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Posted in Life, Philosophy, Society, Science, Geeky Musings, Health, Dance, Social, Parenting, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

How can the Covid-policies be countered with the help of Big Money?

Suppose you agree with me that containment and elimination strategies pursued regarding Covid-19 do far more harm than good. Suppose you also believe that having an open economy and a vibrant close-contact social life is vital for the long-run health of the country. You want t...

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Posted in Politics - national, Life, Education, Society, Economics and public policy, Science, Media, Health, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

The ongoing wellbeing loss from covid-policies. Sign the protest letter!

The UK Office of National Statistics data on the wellbeing of the British population shows a unprecedented drop of about 10% in average wellbeing in the UK since March 2020. Anxiety levels almost doubled, slowly returning to normal, but wellbeing remains low as people are prev...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Science, Health, Social, Public and Private Goods, Death and taxes, Coronavirus crisis

Never let a crisis go to waste: covid-19 and democracy (Guest post from Luke Slawomirski)

Dear Troppodillians, please welcome Luke Slawomirski to Troppo. I first met Luke at the OECD where I gave a paper on public-private digital partnerships with a particular focus on health policy. Luke was an Australian health economist working there and he's recently returned t...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Democracy

From being to seeming: why empirical scientists failed in times of Covid.

There have long been scientists who were celebrities in their own time. Galileo, Keppler, Goodall, Linneus, Cousteau, Darwin, Smith, Leeuwenhoek, Da Vinci, Ibn Khaldhun, Curie, and many others in the last 800 years were followed and admired. They in many ways performed their s...

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Posted in Politics - national, Life, Philosophy, Education, Society, Religion, Theatre, Economics and public policy, Science, Geeky Musings, Health, Cultural Critique, Social Policy, Democracy, Coronavirus crisis

"Living with Covid" Interesting paper on tradeoffs

Here is a new paper from Imperial College , this time by a team with David Miles, Mike Stedman, and A drian Heald, looking into the implicit cost per QALY that the UK spent via lock downs and other repression policies. They use a somewhat different methodology from mine , esti...

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Posted in Science, Libertarian Musings, Health, Medical, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

A seminar/workshop on wellbeing cost-benefit analysis applied to covid

Find below the video of a seminar for the Australian Institute for Progress done a few weeks ago detailing the basic cost-benefit view of the current pandemic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TS2DE-D1TA The slides of this presentation are here: Presentation CBA Covid May 2020...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, History, Society, Science, Health, Social Policy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

Covid strategies for Australia: herd immunity or quarantine land?

Let’s talk about some of the covid policy options facing Australia in the coming months and years. It seems to me we can either grasp the nettle and accept we will get a wave of highly visible covid-19 deaths before life returns to normal, or we can try and defend ourselves ag...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, History, Education, Economics and public policy, Journalism, Libertarian Musings, Health, Death and taxes, Democracy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

On Corona/Covid-19, herd immunity and WELLBY tradeoffs: key predictions and numbers

[in progress: will add more references, links and latest numbers when I get the time] In this note, I want to deal with three related issues: the main lessons on the corona virus from the reported deaths across countries with different policies; the feasibility of different “e...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Education, Society, IT and Internet, Economics and public policy, Science, Libertarian Musings, Health, Social, Cultural Critique, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Democracy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

What should Australia do in the coming recession?

There is one hell of a recession coming for Australia. Economic activity has already reduced by 20% and actual unemployment will probably peak near 20% too , and about a million businesses have already applied for some sort of assistance. The population increase of the last 20...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Education, Economics and public policy, Health, Death and taxes, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

UK policy wonks following Troppo in saying the lock downs were a mistake (but hiding the message a bit)

Here at Clubtroppo, we have been saying for well over a month now that a quick look at the economic damage and the health damage of the responses to the corona virus tells you they dwarf the possible benefits of suppressing the virus, anywhere in the West. This has lead to the...

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Posted in History, Society, Health, Methodology, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

COVID-19: The path back (with updates)

Note: Article expanded on 24 April and again on 27 April. The middle now has more meat. So you can read it again! As Paul Frijters has recently said on this site, many countries will soon ease their restrictions on social isolation. As Paul has been pointing out , we pay a hig...

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Posted in Politics - national, Economics and public policy, Health, Medical, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

Unseen victims of the corona panic: IVF babies and their parents

Did you know that Australia has over 13,000 IVF babies born per year, the UK over 20,000 , the West as a whole (Europe+US+offshoots) over 200,000 and the world as a whole 500,000 ? And did you know that due to the corona panic these services have been halted pretty much everyw...

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Posted in Society, Economics and public policy, Science, Health, Social, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Coronavirus crisis

The journalist as courtier: COVID19 edition

Well, certainly wearing a mask walking down the streets of Melbourne makes no sense at all Brendan Murphy, Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, March 9 . The philosopher Mary Midgley styles her own writing as that of a critic. She means something urgent by this – not something A...

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Posted in Philosophy, Humour, Economics and public policy, Health, Cultural Critique, Democracy

How many WELLBYs is the corona panic costing?

How much unhappiness is created by the unemployment of millions of people in Western countries (mainly N-Am +Europe) caused by the corona panic? How much unhappiness has been created due to the vast expansion of loneliness and physical inactivity? And in terms of the tradeoff...

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Posted in Uncategorized, Politics - international, History, Education, Science, Health, Social, Death and taxes, Social Policy, Democracy, Employment, Coronavirus crisis

Information, ignorance, trade-offs and system collapse

[caption id="attachment_33714" align="alignnone" width="1800"] Whoever is doing PR for this virus has certainly come up with a natty logo.[/caption] An argument someone put to me today which makes a lot of sense. In the GFC markets collapsed not just because there was too much...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

6 post-Corona Institutional questions

The mass hysteria of the corona crisis is raging, with the resulting self-isolation of whole economies and populations. The loss seems greater with every new forecast on the economic collapse than I initially though t, and the benefit of imprisoning and terrorizing the populat...

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Posted in Politics - international, Life, History, Society, Religion, Economics and public policy, Terror, Science, regulation, Health, Climate Change, Political theory, Business, Social, Cultural Critique, Public and Private Goods

PANIC IS OUR FRIEND!

It’s an intimidating picture. But the weaker the freeze, the more people die in overburdened hospitals — and the longer it ultimately takes for the economy to restart. Donald G. McNeil Jr in the NYT Yes folks, I normally don't go in for all that MALARKY WITH CAPITAL LETTERS IN...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Death and taxes

The Corona Dilemma.

Consider the shown picture where you are the decision maker who can pull the lever of the train tracks to avoid the coming train from going straight. If you do not divert the train, one person, John, will get run over. He is elderly and suffering from many diseases. You know h...

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Posted in Politics - international, Life, Philosophy, History, Society, Economics and public policy, Science, Libertarian Musings, Health, Public and Private Goods, Death and taxes, Democracy, Employment

Has the coronavirus panic cost us at least 10 million lives already?

The number of people worldwide who have died from the coronavirus stands at 8,000 at the moment, equivalent to the death toll of two days of the world's traffic accidents. The fear is of course that millions more will follow. The panic over what the virus might do has now lead...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, History, Society, Economics and public policy, Science, Health, Social, Medical, Death and taxes

Are drugs the Achilles heel of stagnant inequality?

[off the cuff research idea memo] There is an uncanny analogy between China in the 19th century and the US this very moment: in both cases a large part of the general population could not be persuaded away from drugs by morality or prison. Opium in China then, opioids in the U...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, History, Society, Geeky Musings, Health, Political theory, Race and indigenous, Death and taxes

Adam Smith was a feminist economist: Care – the essay

This recent essay in the Mandarin is a reworking of an essay I wrote in 2016 in a string of essays in which I developed the idea of the Evaluator General. I was following Gary Sturgess' suggestion that governments should not think of themselves as producing complex services in...

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Posted in History, Economics and public policy, Health, Parenting, Cultural Critique

The logic of the inevitable (nuclear) apocalypse. Can the Gods save us?

The probability of a massive nuclear war the next 10 years between any of the 8 current nuclear powers (US, UK, France, Russia, India, Pakistan, NK, Israel) seems low. The bluster of the leaders is supposed to make the threat look a bit bigger than it is in order to get negoti...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Philosophy, Environment, History, Humour, Education, Literature, Society, Religion, IT and Internet, Terror, Science, Geeky Musings, Health, Climate Change, Ask Troppo's Love Gods, Dance, Space, Chess, Social, Ethics, Cultural Critique, Death and taxes, Democracy

Could Obamacare have lead to lower fertility?

[just a thought] US total fertility rates were bobbing along very placidly around 2.05 live births per woman from 1990 to 2010, when suddenly there was a clear drop to 1.8 in 2010-2017. That drop has even continued to 1.76 births per woman in 2017 . When I asked myself what co...

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Posted in History, Education, Science, Gender, Geeky Musings, Health, Medical, Social Policy, Employment

Is there now more psychological violence?

In all ways that we measure these things, physical violence has reduced in Western countries in the last 70 years, particularly mainland Western Europe. What about psychological violence though? Psychological violence, ie the inflicting of mental pain, takes many forms. It inc...

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Posted in Life, Philosophy, History, Miscellaneous, Humour, Education, Society, Religion, regulation, Media, Libertarian Musings, Health, Social, Parenting, Ethics, Cultural Critique, Public and Private Goods, Inequality, Personal

When big brother knows best

Saving Lives by Tying Hands: The Unexpected Effects of Constraining Health Care Providers Abstract: The emergency department (ED) is a complex node of healthcare delivery that is facing market and regulatory pressure across developed economies to reduce wait times. In this pap...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Several things you WON'T BELIEVE about Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities

From the moral panic division of ClubTroppo. Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities Over the last few years, marijuana has become legally available for recreational use to roughly a quarter of Americans. Policy makers have long expressed c...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Me on forecasting

https://youtu.be/PX4B6e0wnV8 Above is my presentation to CEDA's Outlook conference in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago. I came after a McKinsey's consultant talking about digital disruption which is always a fun thing to present or listen to because there are lots of 'wow' momen...

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Posted in History, Humour, Economics and public policy, Health, Cultural Critique, Bullshit

Forget Soylent Green – let’s make money out of ‘em

The following is a guest post by RHONDA PRYOR , a recently retired senior manager in the Australian aged care sector. We are hoping Rhonda may become a regular contributor to Troppo. If you woke up to read the Government had announced that they have a totally new approach to S...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Ethics

The #MeToo moment: another disaster for the Democrats?

The #MeToo flood of stories of women who feel abused by men – ranging from lurid stares to straightforward rape – seems like a disaster to me for the Democrats. Not because of the stories themselves, but because of how the progressive media and commentators have reacted to it....

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Posted in Life, Philosophy, Miscellaneous, Humour, Religion, IT and Internet, Gender, Media, Libertarian Musings, Health, Law, Information, bubble, Social, Cultural Critique, Bullshit

Some Game of Thrones Season 8 speculation

Let me indulge, purely for entertainment value, in some fan-speculation on what we will see on-screen after the Long Night is over and the final 6 episodes Of Game of Thrones are run in 2019. Let me first talk about the end-game aspects I think the books and the tv-series seem...

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The worst bit of old age is not being extended. It's being delayed.

You've heard it a million times: in developed nations, populations are ageing. But what does that mean? At the extremes, it could mean either of two quite different things. It could mean a host of frail elderly people stuck in nursing homes for 20 years, or it could mean a bun...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Social Policy

Quirky cultural customs: the causes of death

Have you ever reflected on what a strange concept the notion of a 'cause of death' really is? We use the term so often that it wouldn't quickly register as a cultural oddity, but it really is a quirky beast and has an odd history. I have a bit of a professional interest in thi...

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Posted in History, Science, Libertarian Musings, Geeky Musings, Health, Ethics, Medical, Death and taxes, Social Policy

Social systems, economics and the thing itself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMLt7bSX3iE I In writing a series of essays last year I came to an obvious conclusion. It's perhaps one that others had come to years ago, but then there's something in coming to a conclusion from a position sympathetic to its opposite.[1. As J....

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Innovation

Wellbeing: more please

The well-being or 'happiness' push has been rolling for more than a decade now. Though there were plenty of other voices like Bruno Frey , I date its take-off from around the turn of the 21st century when Richard Layard started cranking up the issue and invoking the ghost of B...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Inequality, Social Policy

File under "déformation professionnelle"

This is a note to myself. It's from the report of the NDIS Citizen's Jury Scorecard . However, in a way that speaks for itself, it may be of interest to Troppodillians. It's an illustration of professional obfuscation and indifference to those in their care. (Of course lots of...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Concept Split: Shockwaves!!!

If Rex can give us his guide to Gravitational Waves - a very impressive performance I have to say, then I can dust off an old document from my days at the ANU law school - in the late 1980s. Concept Split: Shockwaves Shock waves spread from the policy making community through...

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Posted in History, Humour, Science, Health, Space

Our ABC: some great Radio National listening

I drove for the best part of 11 hours over the last few days giving a Do Lecture (would you believe?) which was fun. In any event I listened to some seriously great radio. Inside the drug court I was riveted by three 50 minute docos on the NSW Drug Court. It really is a traged...

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Posted in Music, Economics and public policy, Health, Political theory, Innovation, Parenting, Cultural Critique

Why is Infant Mortality Higher in the US than in Europe? (Hint: it's what you guessed it was)

by Alice Chen, Emily Oster, Heidi Williams - #20525 (AG CH HC HE PE) Abstract: The US has a substantial - and poorly understood - infant mortality disadvantage relative to peer countries. We combine comprehensive micro-data on births and infant deaths in the US from 2000 to 20...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use

Amazing that this is such a big deal, that we can administer morphine but not medical marijuana to alleviate pain. The paper is here . Abstract: While at least a dozen state legislatures in the United States have recently considered bills to allow the consumption of marijuana...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Operation 2770: TACSI's Family by Family expands to Mt Druitt

https://vimeo.com/90297488 (For the full 27 minute video from which this 6 minute video has been extracted, click here .) Family by Family about which you've heard before is spreading its wings. We've started in Mt Druitt where we've scoped the program investigating how it sho...

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Posted in Uncategorized, Philosophy, Economics and public policy, Gender, Media, Health, Political theory, Parenting, Cultural Critique

Who's oppressing women? Royal baby edition

I recall going to a lecture by Naomi Wolf at the Australian National Gallery in Canberra when she burst onto the scene as the author of The Beauty Myth which seemed to promise some new beginning after the sixties' and seventies' 'second wave' feminism. The obsession with women...

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Posted in Gender, Health

Nobel Prizes: the hard way

I didn't know this - until my son told me. From this website . Sometimes it is necessary for doctors to get access to the heart either for diagnosis or treatment. The simplest way to do this might seem to be to hack open the chest and have a look at the organ itself. Obviously...

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Posted in History, Health, WOW! - Amazing

Medicalising ADHD

Do Stimulant Medications Improve Educational and Behavioral Outcomes for Children with ADHD? by Janet Currie, Mark Stabile, Lauren E. Jones http://papers.nber.org/papers/W19105?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw Abstract: We examine the effects of a policy change...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Just Another (Almost) Routine Mental Health Crisis

Prelude: Lento It's after midnight and the other members of the household are either asleep or pursuing their own consolations in the silence of their own rooms. So, much as I might desire the consolation of recorded orchestral music played at concert hall volume, it just woul...

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Posted in Life, Society, Health

This week's column: the corruption of our intellectual culture

ASIDE from war, corruption is probably the biggest obstacle to economic and social development in poor countries. But it's best we see ourselves as being on a continuum with them, rather than as having solved the problem. Even if no law was broken, Wall Street financiers impos...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Science, Health

Where equity and efficiency thrive together: Can you propose some more examples?

Economists love tradeoffs. Indeed, their basic model of the world breaks down where such tradeoffs don't occur. Lucky for them since the world really is full of tradeoffs. If you want more carrots, you'll have to do with fewer of something else. Here they're substitutes. But,...

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Posted in Education, Society, Economics and public policy, Health, Blegs, Political theory

Steve Jobs, climate quackery and democracy

If you discovered that you had cancer would you (a) find a doctor who is an expert in treating your disease and follow their advice, or (b) attempt to devise your own treatment by reading about cancer on the internet? According to some sources, Apple founder Steve Jobs may hav...

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Posted in Politics - national, Health, Climate Change

The anglosphere of fatties

The Anglophone countries often cluster together on various measures of national greatness or depravity - such as household savings (we haven't been doing much of it - until recently). But it's quite dramatic how much worse we're doing on obesity than anyone else. And boy do th...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

The Herald/Age Lateral Economics Index of Wellbeing

Herewith my op ed from the Herald and Age today. What is the good life and are we living it? Assessing and measuring wellbeing has vexed us since ancient times. But a funny thing happened on the modern world’s way to the answer. The metric that economists used to dampen down t...

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Posted in Philosophy, Environment, Education, Economics and public policy, Health, Political theory

Why is it so?

I cam across this post in my morning Google reader perusal: A ballot measure that StateImpact Ohio (a creation of local public media and NPR) describes as “a referendum on a constitutional amendment…aimed at keeping the national health care reform law from taking [e]ffect” won...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Health

Thread of doom play for the day: Size does matter

Disappointed Troppo readers everywhere have gradually come to a realisation - upon which I came clean on in a recent thread . Troppo is really an 'eyeballs' play as we say in the trade and things haven't been this good for eyeballs since Tim Blair sent some brownshirts our way...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Gender, Health, Climate Change, Ask Troppo's Love Gods

Do Walmart Supercenters make you fat (hint - a bit!)

From Supersizing supercenters? The impact of Walmart Supercenters on body mass index and obesity, by Charles Courtemanche and Art Carden, Journal of Urban Economics 69 (2011) 165–181 Researchers have linked the rise in obesity to technological progress reducing the opportunity...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Food, Health

Google Health: did it have to end this way?

I never fully understood Google Health . It seems to be a consumer product, inviting you to input your data and track your health, set health goals and so on. Certainly there could be some benefits in this and in the aggregation of information, but the amount of effort maintai...

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Posted in IT and Internet, Economics and public policy, Health, Web and Government 2.0

$100 bills on the pavement: another installment

[caption id="" align="alignright" width="640" caption="Cartoon purloined following Patrick's excellent advice @ comment 8. "] [/caption] As I've said at least once before, my own approach to economics could be described as looking for $100 bills on the pavement. I think they'r...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Blegs, Web and Government 2.0

Multitasking: Productivity Effects and Gender Differences

We examine how multitasking affects performance and check whether women are indeed better at multitasking. Subjects in our experiment perform two different tasks according to three treatments: one where they perform the tasks sequentially, one where they are forced to multitas...

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Posted in Science, Gender, Health

The future of economic productivity inducing economic reform

Saul Eslake asked a bunch of people for comments on the recent Grattan Institute study of productivity and I sent him back a long email which I reproduce with some editing here. Nothing very surprising for people who are regular visitors here, but perhaps worth posting in case...

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Posted in Education, Economics and public policy, regulation, Health, Web and Government 2.0

A clever index tells us we're pretty healthy

How could you compare the health systems of the world in terms of outcomes with plausible verisimilitude, in other words by making assumptions that don't just give you junk? I was sceptical when I read of this index, but think it's a pretty good, though like any such exercise...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Legalise it?

Not so long ago economist Paul Frijters mused about drug legalisation here at Troppo. It seems that Paul is an international trendsetter. Now economist elder statesman Gary Becker and the world's most prolific judge/legal academic Richard Posner are musing on the same topic at...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health, Law

Do Nurses Strikes Kill? ('fraid so - as you'd expect)

From the NBER digest. U.S. hospitals were excluded from collective bargaining laws for three decades longer than other sectors because of fears that strikes by nurses might imperil patients' health. Today, while unionization has been declining in general, it is growing rapidly...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Obama's victory: a lesson for Rudd?

So Obama got his modest and compromised health care bill through Congress. For those who are more interested in policy than process, there's a pretty helpful summary of the legislation here . However, I hold the desirabilty of the reforms to be self-evident. The only serious i...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Economics and public policy, Health, Climate Change

Krugman: another masterpiece about that strange country he lives in

Fear Strikes Out, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times The day before Sunday’s health care vote, President Obama gave an unscripted talk to House Democrats. Near the end, he spoke about why his party should pass reform: “Every once in a while a moment comes where you have a c...

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Posted in Politics - international, Health

Major shift on legal responsibility of pubs

The High Court has ruled that people serving alcohol are not at risk of of massive claims for damages if a drinker comes to grief on the way home. One would hope that commonsense will prevail and folk will conform with responsible serving guidelines. Some of the claims were a...

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Posted in regulation, Health, Business

In case you missed the master

Republican Death Trip By PAUL KRUGMAN I am in this race because I dont want to see us spend the next year re-fighting the Washington battles of the 1990s. I dont want to pit Blue America against Red America; I want to lead a United States of America. So declared Barack Obama i...

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Posted in Politics - international, Economics and public policy, Health

The Biomedical Informatics Grid

Exciting stuff! Infrastructure For A Learning Health Care System: CaBIG In his proposal for a new cancer care policy in a data-rich future (Jan/Feb 09), Lynn Etheredge correctly notes that the National Cancer Institute (NCI) has built the requisite infrastructure for a learnin...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Abusing the balance of power

It it not necessary to be a fan of the Rudd administration or the alcopops tax to deplore the horse-trading that is going on to hold the Government to ransom on legislation to ratify the tax. Abuse of the Senate is not a novely and the man from Tasmania was probably the worst...

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Posted in Politics - national, regulation, Health

Counter-intuitive findings on road accidents

A feed on US road accidents summer vs winter etc . A feed from Organizations and Markets. Does the inclement weather have you worried about sliding off the road to an icy death? If so, Ive got some good news for you. On a per-mile driven basis (or per-trip or per-minute travel...

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Posted in Uncategorised, Life, Health

I've seen future (of healthcare) and it will work (at least a bit)

This is an interesting article on things at the cutting edge of healthcare (if you're a free market type). If you're not such a free market type, there may be some things at the other cutting edge of community medicine and other things - feel free to let us know in comments. I...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

$100 bills on the pavement - and in the hospital

In writing this article , it occured to me that one way to describe my own approach to economics is the search for the $100 bill on the pavement. That is, if you can find ways of bringing new ideas into some well developed framework (well new-ish ideas or just ideas that are c...

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Posted in Life, Economics and public policy, Science, Health

A medical advocate?

One of the best investments my wife and I ever made was $1,000 for a midwife for the delivery of our second child. For this we got a stream of advice and a few visits before the delivery and then she was with us throughout the delivery. The woman in question had been head nurs...

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Posted in Economics and public policy, Health

Kevin Cox: Second Guest Post

Subject to my own reservations outlined in the introduction to Kevin's first guest post, here's his second. Improving the Health Industry Market Place by Kevin Cox The general theme in this set of blogs is how to overcome market failures or to create markets with tagged money...

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Posted in Politics - national, Economics and public policy, Health

Craig Venter: Troppo links - you decide

A fascinating review of Craig Venter's autobiography . Naturally I'm sympathetic to this guy who looks like he values scientific creativity and achievement above other things, and will improvise through the miasma of institutions that exist to further science to get what he's...

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Posted in Life, Literature, IT and Internet, Science, Health

The 2020 summit who should go?

I've just been asked by the Department of PM&C to nominate someone to go to the 202o Summit. Who should I nominate - and why? This post will be moderated strictly. Suggestions should be serious and I hope you'll provide good reasons. Of course there will be people who want to...

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Posted in Politics - national, Politics - international, Life, Philosophy, Environment, History, Education, Society, Religion, Economics and public policy, Science, Gender, Journalism, Health, Climate Change, Political theory, Law

Attack of the killer baby bonus mums

Andrew Leigh and Joshua Gans' latest attack on the Howard Government is causing collateral damage. According to Helen Smart , the publicity surrounding their latest Baby Bonus paper "spawned a disgusting hatefest on news.com.au and similar forums, with all the usual suspects g...

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Posted in Politics - national, Media, Health

Pregnant vegetarian bleg

Peach's longest serving employee is pregnant! Isn't that good! Well I think so and so does she. But she now has a problem. She's a vegetarian because she hates eating meat (not because she's strict about it on principle). But she's very very tired a lot of the time given her p...

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Posted in Uncategorised, Health, Blegs